Early Saturday morning, the Toronto Blue Jays took steps to address their dire need for more starting pitching depth by <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/report-blue-jays-sign-pitchers-jose-urena-and-spencer-turnbull-to-major-league-deals">signing</a> both Spencer Turnbull and José Ureña to MLB deals. It&#8217;s expected Ureña will immediately join the team in Anaheim this week while Turnbull heads down (possibly to Dunedin) to build up some innings before coming up to the big league club as well.
Of the two, Turnbull is easily the more interesting arm. Turnbull, a former second-round pick out of Madison Central HS in 2014 by the Detroit Tigers, has experienced a decent amount of success at the big league level, highlighted by a no-hitter that he twirled on May 18th, 2021, against the Seattle Mariners. Injuries have been something Turnbull has battled his whole career.
After a start on June 4th, 2021, against the White Sox, Turnbull was diagnosed with a torn UCL and underwent Tommy John Surgery that knocked him out until the start of the 2023 season. He&#8217;s also dealt with various forearm and back issues that have forced him to miss time. On February 14th, 2024, Turnbull signed a 1 year/$2 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies and had the second-best year of his career.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-85601" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-03-202521.png" alt="" width="403" height="558" srcset="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-03-202521.png 403w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-03-202521-217x300.png 217w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 403px) 100vw, 403px" />
After parts of 5 seasons with the Tigers, Turnbull was picked up by the Phillies just before the start of spring training last season and was slated for swingman duties. Turnbull ended up pitching in 17 games (seven starts) across 57 1/3 innings before a lat strain in late June ended his season early. It ended up being an extremely effective year for Turnbull as he put up a 2.65 ERA/4.05 xERA/3.85 FIP/0.7 fWAR and missed more bats than any other season of his career, as evidenced by his 26.1% strikeout rate. How did he do it? Let&#8217;s dive in.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-85599" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-03-202926.png" alt="" width="746" height="187" srcset="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-03-202926.png 554w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-03-202926-300x75.png 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 746px) 100vw, 746px" /> <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-85600" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-04-121722.png" alt="" width="304" height="190" />
&nbsp;
The Phillies made alterations to Turnbull&#8217;s pitch usage in 2024. Before last year, Turnbull was predominantly a 4-seam fastball/slider/sinker type while sprinkling in a changeup and a curveball. Once he got to Philly, they had him scrap the slider almost entirely and introduced him to a new pitch, a sweeper.
The sweeper for those unfamiliar is technically still a slider but with a significantly more amount of horizontal break. For context, <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/spencer-turnbull-605513?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb">his average slider</a> had 7.6″ of horizontal break while his sweeper had 13.9″. Turnbull had immediate and immense success with his new pitch; his sweeper in 2024 produced a .187 xBA/.287 xSLG/.262 xwOBA/30.8% whiff rate against. His +5 run value on the pitch meant it was his best individual pitch all season. The right-hander seemingly agreed, as he used it nearly as much as his fastball all year.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Spencer Turnbull, Painted 84mph Sweeper. 🖌️🎨 <a href="https://t.co/MVwy7WWxyb">pic.twitter.com/MVwy7WWxyb</a>
&mdash; Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href="https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1785505302613254391?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 1, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
&nbsp;
The fact that Turnbull was still available on the free agent market was surprising.
Yes, he was coming off the lat injury, but this is a serviceable pitcher in a demographic that is always in high demand. <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/2024-25-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html">MLB Trade Rumors</a> projected Turnbull to get a one-year deal worth $7 million this past offseason, while <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/17729/spencer-turnbull">Spotrac</a> projected a 2 year deal with an AAV of $4.4 million.
The Blue Jays will more than likely send Turnbull to the Player Development Complex in Dunedin initially to get him to pitch in extended spring training games in a controlled environment and where the weather won&#8217;t be miserable. From there, he likely pitches in a game or two with Dunedin before moving on up to either New Hampshire or Buffalo for a couple more appearances. From there, if all goes well, Turnbull likely joins the Blue Jays as their fifth starter, where I expect him to be a really solid contributor. This wasn&#8217;t just your average run-of-the-mill depth signing in early May. There&#8217;s some upside to be had.
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Early Saturday morning, the Toronto Blue Jays took steps to address their dire need for more starting pitching depth by <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/report-blue-jays-sign-pitchers-jose-urena-and-spencer-turnbull-to-major-league-deals">signing</a> both Spencer Turnbull and José Ureña to MLB deals. It's expected Ureña will immediately join the team in Anaheim this week while Turnbull heads down (possibly to Dunedin) to build up some innings before coming up to the big league club as well.

Of the two, Turnbull is easily the more interesting arm. Turnbull, a former second-round pick out of Madison Central HS in 2014 by the Detroit Tigers, has experienced a decent amount of success at the big league level, highlighted by a no-hitter that he twirled on May 18th, 2021, against the Seattle Mariners. Injuries have been something Turnbull has battled his whole career.

After a start on June 4th, 2021, against the White Sox, Turnbull was diagnosed with a torn UCL and underwent Tommy John Surgery that knocked him out until the start of the 2023 season. He's also dealt with various forearm and back issues that have forced him to miss time. On February 14th, 2024, Turnbull signed a 1 year/$2 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies and had the second-best year of his career.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-85601" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-03-202521.png" alt="" width="403" height="558" />

After parts of 5 seasons with the Tigers, Turnbull was picked up by the Phillies just before the start of spring training last season and was slated for swingman duties. Turnbull ended up pitching in 17 games (seven starts) across 57 1/3 innings before a lat strain in late June ended his season early. It ended up being an extremely effective year for Turnbull as he put up a 2.65 ERA/4.05 xERA/3.85 FIP/0.7 fWAR and missed more bats than any other season of his career, as evidenced by his 26.1% strikeout rate. How did he do it? Let's dive in.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-85599" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-03-202926.png" alt="" width="746" height="187" /> <img class="alignnone wp-image-85600" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-04-121722.png" alt="" width="304" height="190" />

&nbsp;

The Phillies made alterations to Turnbull's pitch usage in 2024. Before last year, Turnbull was predominantly a 4-seam fastball/slider/sinker type while sprinkling in a changeup and a curveball. Once he got to Philly, they had him scrap the slider almost entirely and introduced him to a new pitch, a sweeper.

The sweeper for those unfamiliar is technically still a slider but with a significantly more amount of horizontal break. For context, <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/spencer-turnbull-605513?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb">his average slider</a> had 7.6″ of horizontal break while his sweeper had 13.9″. Turnbull had immediate and immense success with his new pitch; his sweeper in 2024 produced a .187 xBA/.287 xSLG/.262 xwOBA/30.8% whiff rate against. His +5 run value on the pitch meant it was his best individual pitch all season. The right-hander seemingly agreed, as he used it nearly as much as his fastball all year.

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1785505302613254391

&nbsp;

The fact that Turnbull was still available on the free agent market was surprising.

Yes, he was coming off the lat injury, but this is a serviceable pitcher in a demographic that is always in high demand. <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/2024-25-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html">MLB Trade Rumors</a> projected Turnbull to get a one-year deal worth $7 million this past offseason, while <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/17729/spencer-turnbull">Spotrac</a> projected a 2 year deal with an AAV of $4.4 million.

The Blue Jays will more than likely send Turnbull to the Player Development Complex in Dunedin initially to get him to pitch in extended spring training games in a controlled environment and where the weather won't be miserable. From there, he likely pitches in a game or two with Dunedin before moving on up to either New Hampshire or Buffalo for a couple more appearances. From there, if all goes well, Turnbull likely joins the Blue Jays as their fifth starter, where I expect him to be a really solid contributor. This wasn't just your average run-of-the-mill depth signing in early May. There's some upside to be had.

<hr />

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