Last Friday&#8217;s non-tender deadline marked the first meaningful transactions of the Toronto Blue Jays&#8217; 2024-25 off-season. They tendered contracts to seven of their nine arbitration-eligible players, except for former closer Jordan Romano and fellow reliever Dillon Tate, making them both free agents &#8212; thus impacting next season&#8217;s payroll. 
If not for his elbow concerns, Romano would&#8217;ve almost certainly been tendered a contract, returning for his final season of club control before becoming a free agent after 2025. But the fact he wasn&#8217;t indicates the club&#8217;s hesitation regarding his health, leaving them with the tough decision of cutting the Markham, Ont., native loose, abruptly ending his Blue Jays tenure.
Toronto saved $7.75 million &#8212; a hefty price for a reliever recovering from elbow surgery &#8212; by non-tendering Romano, a figure calculated from <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2025.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MLB Trade Rumors&#8217; annual arbitration projections</a>. They saved an additional $1.9 million by non-tendering Tate, increasing their combined projected savings to almost $10 million &#8212; which they could reinvest into the bullpen by signing two quality back-end arms.
Before making their decisions final, the Blue Jays had two other relief pitchers on the bubble, right-handers Zach Pop and Erik Swanson. Ultimately, management opted to tender both hurlers, with Pop due a projected $1 million &#8212; an inexpensive amount for someone who&#8217;ll be out of options and a DFA candidate next spring, anyway &#8212; and Swanson at $3.2 million.
However, the front office saved a bit of money on Swanson, too, as the two sides avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $3 million &#8212; $200,000 less than his arbitration projection.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
OFFICIAL: We’ve agreed to terms with RHP Erik Swanson on a one-year contract for the 2025 season. <a href="https://t.co/aKWt0KNrjr">pic.twitter.com/aKWt0KNrjr</a>
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/1860129127526990265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 23, 2024</a></blockquote>
Thanks to those savings, Toronto&#8217;s projected <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/blue-jays" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2025 Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) payroll now sits at approximately $203 million</a> post-contract tendering, according to FanGraphs&#8217; Roster Resource. That puts the franchise eighth in the majors &#8212; a few million shy of the Los Angeles Angels&#8217; $207-million projected CBT payroll &#8212; and roughly $38 million below the initial $241 million luxury tax bracket.
There&#8217;s certainly money to spend for general manager Ross Atkins, who&#8217;s tasked with improving a roster that finished last in the AL East a season ago. But he doesn&#8217;t exactly possess a ton of breathing room, given the number of positions that require improving &#8212; including a power-deficient offence, a talent-lacking bullpen and a starting rotation in need of a fifth starter.
And yet, the Blue Jays continue to be linked to many of the top free agents still available, namely Juan Soto. That suggests management has the freedom to spend beyond its current limits for a ceiling-raising move &#8212; like landing this winter&#8217;s prized free agent or one of the other impact players such as Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Willy Adames or Alex Bregman.
As to where this team&#8217;s payroll will reside come Opening Day 2025, well, that remains somewhat of a mystery. The last update we received was at last month&#8217;s end-of-season press conference, where team president and CEO <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/news-and-notes-payroll-not-expected-to-change-next-season-blue-jays-plan-to-be-a-little-more-aggressive-in-pursing-free-agent-relievers-and-more" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mark Shapiro indicated he didn&#8217;t foresee a drastic change coming from previous seasons</a>.
Reading between the lines, odds are the franchise&#8217;s spending pool will mirror its 2023 and &#8217;24 levels. Two seasons ago, the club finished with a projected CBT payroll of approximately $246 million, aligning it between the first ($233 million) and second luxury tax thresholds ($253 million). They were on track to be a luxury-tax-paying team for a second straight year before narrowly slipping under the $237 million threshold following this past season&#8217;s sell-off.
Realistically speaking, if the Blue Jays are to have any chance of enjoying a perfectly executed off-season, their 2025 CBT payroll will probably need to reside somewhere between the first ($241 million) and second luxury tax brackets ($261 million). Based on their current payroll projection, that&#8217;d provide Atkins and his staff with roughly $40-$50 million in spending this winter.
If they become a luxury tax team again, dipping below last season&#8217;s threshold will reset their <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CBT penalties</a> for 2025, subjecting them to a 20-per-cent surcharge on any overages rather than the 30-per-cent clip as a repeat payor.
Even so, that doesn&#8217;t leave much room for error.
Another wrinkle in Toronto&#8217;s payroll situation is the amount of long-term flexibility the organization possesses. With the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt and Chad Green becoming free agents next winter, the front office has a ton of salary coming off its books after the &#8217;25 campaign.
Barring additional moves, the club already has almost $126 million committed to eight players for next season, excluding the salary retained from the Isiah Kiner-Falefa trade. But they only have four players signed beyond &#8217;25 &#8212; Kevin Gausman, George Springer, José Berríos and Yariel Rodríguez, with those first two hitting free agency after &#8217;26.
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;width: 100%" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 23px">
<td style="width: 25%;height: 23px"></td>
<td style="width: 25%;text-align: center;height: 23px">2025</td>
<td style="width: 25%;text-align: center;height: 23px">2026</td>
<td style="width: 25%;text-align: center;height: 23px">2027</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 23px">
<td style="width: 25%;text-align: center;height: 23px">Guaranteed Salaries</td>
<td style="width: 25%;height: 23px;text-align: center">$125,964,286</td>
<td style="width: 25%;height: 23px;text-align: center">$72,880,953</td>
<td style="width: 25%;height: 23px;text-align: center">$32,714,286</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Granted, all this could change if the Blue Jays reach a long-term extension with Guerrero &#8212; or even Bichette &#8212; this off-season. However, even if that occurred, the franchise should still be able to add another mega deal to its payroll without compromising the pieces surrounding its franchise cornerstones.
While others may have deeper pockets than Toronto, few feature as much long-term financial flexibility as they do. Maybe that&#8217;ll factor into their pursuit of top free agents like Soto, Burnes, Fried, Adames and Bregman. Or perhaps it won&#8217;t.
But just because management has yet to strike doesn&#8217;t mean they don&#8217;t have at least a few cards to play as the market begins to materialize, with the Winter Meetings fast approaching.

Last Friday's non-tender deadline marked the first meaningful transactions of the Toronto Blue Jays' 2024-25 off-season. They tendered contracts to seven of their nine arbitration-eligible players, except for former closer Jordan Romano and fellow reliever Dillon Tate, making them both free agents -- thus impacting next season's payroll. 

If not for his elbow concerns, Romano would've almost certainly been tendered a contract, returning for his final season of club control before becoming a free agent after 2025. But the fact he wasn't indicates the club's hesitation regarding his health, leaving them with the tough decision of cutting the Markham, Ont., native loose, abruptly ending his Blue Jays tenure.

Toronto saved $7.75 million -- a hefty price for a reliever recovering from elbow surgery -- by non-tendering Romano, a figure calculated from <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2025.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MLB Trade Rumors' annual arbitration projections</a>. They saved an additional $1.9 million by non-tendering Tate, increasing their combined projected savings to almost $10 million -- which they could reinvest into the bullpen by signing two quality back-end arms.

Before making their decisions final, the Blue Jays had two other relief pitchers on the bubble, right-handers Zach Pop and Erik Swanson. Ultimately, management opted to tender both hurlers, with Pop due a projected $1 million -- an inexpensive amount for someone who'll be out of options and a DFA candidate next spring, anyway -- and Swanson at $3.2 million.

However, the front office saved a bit of money on Swanson, too, as the two sides avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $3 million -- $200,000 less than his arbitration projection.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
OFFICIAL: We’ve agreed to terms with RHP Erik Swanson on a one-year contract for the 2025 season. <a href="https://t.co/aKWt0KNrjr">pic.twitter.com/aKWt0KNrjr</a>
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/1860129127526990265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 23, 2024</a></blockquote>
Thanks to those savings, Toronto's projected <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/blue-jays" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2025 Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) payroll now sits at approximately $203 million</a> post-contract tendering, according to FanGraphs' Roster Resource. That puts the franchise eighth in the majors -- a few million shy of the Los Angeles Angels' $207-million projected CBT payroll -- and roughly $38 million below the initial $241 million luxury tax bracket.

There's certainly money to spend for general manager Ross Atkins, who's tasked with improving a roster that finished last in the AL East a season ago. But he doesn't exactly possess a ton of breathing room, given the number of positions that require improving -- including a power-deficient offence, a talent-lacking bullpen and a starting rotation in need of a fifth starter.

And yet, the Blue Jays continue to be linked to many of the top free agents still available, namely Juan Soto. That suggests management has the freedom to spend beyond its current limits for a ceiling-raising move -- like landing this winter's prized free agent or one of the other impact players such as Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Willy Adames or Alex Bregman.

As to where this team's payroll will reside come Opening Day 2025, well, that remains somewhat of a mystery. The last update we received was at last month's end-of-season press conference, where team president and CEO <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/news-and-notes-payroll-not-expected-to-change-next-season-blue-jays-plan-to-be-a-little-more-aggressive-in-pursing-free-agent-relievers-and-more" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mark Shapiro indicated he didn't foresee a drastic change coming from previous seasons</a>.

Reading between the lines, odds are the franchise's spending pool will mirror its 2023 and '24 levels. Two seasons ago, the club finished with a projected CBT payroll of approximately $246 million, aligning it between the first ($233 million) and second luxury tax thresholds ($253 million). They were on track to be a luxury-tax-paying team for a second straight year before narrowly slipping under the $237 million threshold following this past season's sell-off.

Realistically speaking, if the Blue Jays are to have any chance of enjoying a perfectly executed off-season, their 2025 CBT payroll will probably need to reside somewhere between the first ($241 million) and second luxury tax brackets ($261 million). Based on their current payroll projection, that'd provide Atkins and his staff with roughly $40-$50 million in spending this winter.

If they become a luxury tax team again, dipping below last season's threshold will reset their <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CBT penalties</a> for 2025, subjecting them to a 20-per-cent surcharge on any overages rather than the 30-per-cent clip as a repeat payor.

Even so, that doesn't leave much room for error.

Another wrinkle in Toronto's payroll situation is the amount of long-term flexibility the organization possesses. With the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt and Chad Green becoming free agents next winter, the front office has a ton of salary coming off its books after the '25 campaign.

Barring additional moves, the club already has almost $126 million committed to eight players for next season, excluding the salary retained from the Isiah Kiner-Falefa trade. But they only have four players signed beyond '25 -- Kevin Gausman, George Springer, José Berríos and Yariel Rodríguez, with those first two hitting free agency after '26.
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;width: 100%" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 23px">
<td style="width: 25%;height: 23px"></td>
<td style="width: 25%;text-align: center;height: 23px">2025</td>
<td style="width: 25%;text-align: center;height: 23px">2026</td>
<td style="width: 25%;text-align: center;height: 23px">2027</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 23px">
<td style="width: 25%;text-align: center;height: 23px">Guaranteed Salaries</td>
<td style="width: 25%;height: 23px;text-align: center">$125,964,286</td>
<td style="width: 25%;height: 23px;text-align: center">$72,880,953</td>
<td style="width: 25%;height: 23px;text-align: center">$32,714,286</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Granted, all this could change if the Blue Jays reach a long-term extension with Guerrero -- or even Bichette -- this off-season. However, even if that occurred, the franchise should still be able to add another mega deal to its payroll without compromising the pieces surrounding its franchise cornerstones.

While others may have deeper pockets than Toronto, few feature as much long-term financial flexibility as they do. Maybe that'll factor into their pursuit of top free agents like Soto, Burnes, Fried, Adames and Bregman. Or perhaps it won't.

But just because management has yet to strike doesn't mean they don't have at least a few cards to play as the market begins to materialize, with the Winter Meetings fast approaching.

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