The Toronto Blue Jays beat reporters announced yesterday that closer Jordan Romano will not return this season as he continues to rehab from surgery on his right elbow in early July. It was going to be a close call as to whether he would return this season and it appears that he won’t have enough time to get ramped up over the next few weeks to rejoin the squad.

It has been a disappointing season for the right-hander as he struggled to stay healthy. He made just 15 appearances this season and allowed 10 earned runs over 13 2/3 innings with four home runs. Romano still notched eight saves and 13 strikeouts before being shut down but overall, it’s a down year for the Ontario product who has been the Jays’ go-to arm in the back end of the bullpen since 2021.

While Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. get all the headlines when it comes to extension talks, Romano is also one player to monitor over the next two seasons. He is entering his final year of arbitration this winter and will be free agent eligible following the 2025 season. Romano is projected to earn somewhere between $8-9 MM this offseason after earning $7.75 MM this past year.

The Blue Jays will have most of the squad returning next season and enter the year with some payroll to play with after all the arbitration players are settled.

The rumour mill has been churning in the club contending next season, which would mean acquiring some outside help to bolster the current roster and fielding a payroll similar to this past year. The Jays need to address a few different areas, mainly in the bullpen and potentially another catcher and an infielder to try and contend next year.

With Romano set for arbitration this year and the price tag that comes with coming off an injury to his elbow, the Jays have a few options on the table for their star closer.

As it stands, the Jays and Romano are heading down this route this winter. The front office has a handful of players who are arbitration-eligible and Romano stands to be one of the higher earners of the group outside of Guerrero.

Of the highest AAV reliever earners, Edwin Diaz leads the way at $20 MM AAV, while Josh Hader sits just behind at $19 MM. A handful of others sit between $10-16 MM but it can be a volatile business, with Diaz losing his closer role for a time this year.

Since 2021, when Romano became the club’s go-to closer midway through the year, he ranks 17th in reliever fWAR (3.5) and his 103 saves rank fifth – behind the likes of Emmanuel Clase, Kenley Jansen, Hader, and Raisel Iglesias. Amongst the group, Romano also sits sixth in ERA (2.66) and his 3.34 FIP put him at #23 on the list.

Overall – there are a lot of positives with Romano in the closer role and the guy thrives in the spotlight, authoring a 2.98 ERA while holding batters to a .219 average and a .642 OPS in the ninth inning. He has converted 105 saves out of 118 opportunities and owns a 2.90 ERA through 231 games.

For a front office that has a lot going on this winter with Guerrero, Bichette, and some free-agent heavy lifting, the easy move would be to get the one-year deal done with Romano (hopefully outside arbitration) and gamble on a return to form in 2025. This might cost the Jays more in the long run should he reach free agency but that is a decision the club will need to make for the long-term outlook of the bullpen.

Given the elbow injury and the need for a new outlook in the bullpen, there is a potential scenario where the Jays decide to non-tender Romano and look at redrawing the relief corps from scratch. That’s not to say the Jays can’t link up again with the reliever but as a free agent, everybody else will get an opportunity to sign the closer and he will likely have a long list of suitors.

It’s a risky move if the Jays want to bring him back on a discounted deal but if the plan is to move on from Romano and rebuild the bullpen with Chad Green as the closer next year, it’s an option the club could move forward with.

This all likely depends on how Romano heals up from his elbow injury and whether the front office believes he will return to form, which is not a given in today’s day and age (especially with relievers). There are many stories out there of players who excelled one season and then floundered the next, so committing upwards of $10 million on a reliever like Romano is a gamble – even if for just one season.

The Jays aren’t a cap-strapped organization, so the finances are less of an issue in terms of payroll allotment, but the $8-10 MM could be used elsewhere if the front office doesn’t see Romano in the picture long-term.

Looking at the track record, Romano has proven that he is a capable closer at the big league level when healthy and while he likely won’t eclipse what Diaz or Hader are currently earning when he is free agent eligible, another strong season should see him earning double digits.

Signing a reliever to an extended contract does come with risk, given the volatility, but for the Blue Jays, having one of the best Canadian relievers on the squad not only boosts the team (when he is pitching well) but also creates a positive PR move at the same time. Jays fans naturally gravitate to Canucks on the roster and Romano is one player that has gained a fandom North of the border from his feats on the field, his flashy ninth-inning entrance, and everything in between. He is also 83 saves from passing Éric Gagné in terms of Canadian relievers and a couple of strong seasons could see him pass that mark sooner rather than later – a feat that feels a bit sweeter when donning a Blue Jays uniform.

Finding a common ground on a multi-year deal can kill two birds with one stone but it all depends on length and AAV.

The risk will be there that he struggles after the deal and it’s a bad contract at the end of the day but the opposite is also possible in that he keeps pitching at the level we have seen from 2021 to 2023. That risk becomes a bit higher given the elbow injury that sidelined him for a good chunk of the 2024 campaign, so a multi-year deal makes a bit less sense this offseason compared to sometime next year.

If I was a gambling man, I believe the Blue Jays and Romano find ground on a one-year deal for next season. Whether it is in or outside arbitration is another question.

Toronto is a better team when he is on the mound and given Chad Green’s injury track record, having Romano back there to make a 1-2 punch with the veteran hurler is a step in the right direction for reshaping a disappointing 2024 bullpen group.