Although we’re only through the first month of the 2025 season, the Toronto Blue Jays must continue to think long-term and past the 2025 season. A priority long-term would be the strength of the starting rotation, which is currently led by powerhouses in Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, and Kevin Gausman.

On paper, the Blue Jays employ a strong pitching rotation, one of the best in the American League East. The rotation seems to be the most established part of the club’s on-field product.

This ranking could be a lot higher with some minor improvements within the rotation, such as a healthy, effective Max Scherzer and Alek Manoah. The fact of the matter is that’s not the case. Scherzer is on a one-year rental deal, and that could be a good thing for the club given his current injury woes.

José Berríos is signed through the 2028 season, although he can opt out of his deal following the 2026 campaign with a player option at his disposal. With him, Bassitt, Scherzer, and Gausman all eligible to test the free agent market over the next two seasons, the Blue Jays will need to decide on how they will go about securing talent in the rotation from their backyard. This conversation starts with a question: Bassitt or Gausman?

Let’s start with contracts and age, as these two factors are quite considerable. Bassitt is currently signed through 2025, becoming a free agent in 2026; he’s set to earn $22 million in his final year. He’s currently 36 years old, and will be 37 in 2026. Bassitt will ideally look for another three years in the league at minimum and could earn above $15 million a season easily if he continues on his current trajectory.

Gausman is signed through 2026; he’s currently 35 years old and expected to make $23 million in both 2025 and 2026. The right-hander will also look for a three to four-year contract on average. This would put him at 39-40 years of age, similar to Bassitt, with a year or two difference in age and free agency.

The age factor is real, as the risk increases in performance, injury, and depth ability. A dollar value will be offered now based on today’s performance, and may not necessarily be earned at the end of their careers. Who offers more longevity?

In a 162-game season, Gausman averages 189 innings of work while Bassitt averages 195. Gausman has recorded 1,752 innings in 13 big league seasons, while Bassitt has recorded 1,142 and 2/3 in 11 big league seasons. Gausman made his big league debut in 2013, while Bassitt debuted a year later, and Gausman has 335 appearances (296 starts) compared to Bassitt and his 206 appearances (193 starts).

In terms of depth and average innings per game (five to six), they almost match up similarly. Now, what does performance look like? Let’s look at 2024’s comparison of both pitchers.

Both pitchers have executed great metrics in 2024 and prior seasons, and both Gausman and Bassitt deploy versatile pitch repertoires that are effective. They both have similar AIR percentages in 2024, and the statistics are very similar.

The right-handers are known for toying with batters and keeping hitters off-balanced. They challenge their hitters and have multiple pitch options to do so. With age comes a loss in velocity, which may not be much of a factor for these two, as their options can mitigate that possibility. Both starters are trusted to record outs on both strikeouts, fly-outs, and ground-outs. They both force hitters to roll over and jam bats.

Gausman and Bassitt are both leaders in the clubhouse with experience in tough divisions, the postseason, and big markets. They are both looked up to by the younger staff members and act as mentors for the up-and-coming pitchers. They are role models for the prospects and hold a high standard in a competitive environment.

Bassitt will slip into free agency at the end of this season, and possibly could be dealt at the trade deadline, depending on the status of the season. A potential short-term deal for Bassitt may be ideal due to the age factor and urgency to retain him. A long-term situation is risky and may not make sense.

Gausman has some retention on his contract, as he’s here for a bit longer. When Gausman reaches the offseason, a potential long-term contract will be more ideal for a conversation, based on his commitment until the end of 2026. He will be younger and is statistically more sound than Bassitt. Between the two options, Gausman may be the more ideal pick if the Jays are looking for a commitment from now until 2028-2030.