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The data supports that the Blue Jays bats struggle to produce power and hits with runners in scoring position
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Photo credit: © Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Tyson Shushkewich
May 9, 2025, 12:00 EDTUpdated: May 9, 2025, 11:44 EDT
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The Toronto Blue Jays just can’t find a way to win on the road, with a chance to turn things around against the Los Angeles Angels earlier this week. A very winnable series on paper turned into a 1-2 series for the Jays, who held the lead in the first two games before blowing it late and found a way to avoid the sweep yesterday in a come-from-behind victory, taking that game 8-5.
It’s been a tough stretch for the Jays as a whole. Some of the go-to arms in the bullpen are scuffling at the same time, with the likes of Yimi García and Jeff Hoffman struggling as of late to lock down games or keep runs from crossing the plate. Left-hander Brendon Little is still finding success, posting a 1.42 ERA with just one earned run allowed through his last seven outings, as well as his counterpart, Mason Fluharty (1.04 ERA through his last seven outings, striking out nine compared to one hit), but the biggest factor has been the bats and their lack of capitalizing on situations.
For example, last night, the Blue Jays had the bases loaded in the first inning with zero outs on the board. Three singles from the top three put the club in a good spot, but the trio of George Springer, Daulton Varsho, and Alejandro Kirk all struck out, putting zero runs on the board. The Jays shouldn’t have needed to come back from yesterday’s game with a solid sixth inning outburst; they should have had the lead from the get-go and run with it the rest of the way, especially against the Angels and their dreadful bullpen. This isn’t the only scenario that the Jays have found themselves in as of late, and one that has consequences for the rest of the team when the bats can’t find a way to drive the runs in.
With runners in scoring position, the Blue Jays rank 22nd in RBIs (101), 23rd in runs (106), 26th in OPS (.635), and 28th in SLG (.317). Interestingly enough, the Jays rank better in hits, where they sit tied for seventh (86) and 12th in BABIP (.307). Those numbers are much more feasible, but they show that there is a bigger problem under the surface.
Diving into the data, the Jays collectively own a .179/.283/.303 slash line with a .585 OPS in two-out scenarios (all out situations combined), and that number drops even further when it comes to runners on second, third, and both bases. Essentially, the Jays can’t buy a clutch hit when their backs are against the wall and there are runners on second and third.
Let’s take a look at when there are two outs on the board (excluding runners on first and third).
Bases Occupied – Blue Jays
SplitGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSBAbip
2 out, —
36
165
5
29
7
1
5
5
18
33
.176
.269
.321
.590
.189
2 out, -2-
25
39
8
7
1
0
1
8
10
9
.180
.360
.282
.642
.207
2 out, –3
18
19
5
5
1
0
0
5
4
4
.263
.391
.316
.707
.333
2 out, -23
21
25
8
4
1
0
0
8
1
13
.160
.192
.200
.392
.333
2 out, 123
13
16
6
3
0
0
0
6
0
4
.188
.235
.188
.423
.250
They can put the ball in play in certain situations, evidenced by the .333 BABIP for runners on second/third and on third, but the average and OPS do not reflect that to the most of their potential. Collectively, with two outs on the board and runners in scoring position, the club owns a .171/.288/.240 with a .528 OPS and 33 RBI from six extra-base hits. This is a number that is not sustainable to win games, especially converting just 34 runs in 146 at-bats (23.3%).
Clutch Stats – Blue Jays
SplitGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSBAbip
2 outs, RISP
35
146
34
25
4
0
2
33
20
44
.171
.288
.240
.528
.230
Do these stats get better if there are fewer outs? Or regardless of the outs on the board? Let’s take a look:
Bases Occupied Outside of Two Outs – Blue Jays
SplitGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSBAbip
-2-
33
114
17
32
5
0
1
17
18
24
.281
.384
.351
.734
.348
–3
24
32
16
8
2
0
0
15
6
8
.250
.333
.313
.646
.286
-23
25
37
18
6
1
0
1
18
2
18
.162
.195
.270
.465
.250
123
19
29
22
6
0
0
0
21
2
9
.207
.243
.207
.450
.240
0 out, -2-
24
36
4
15
2
0
0
4
2
3
.417
.447
.472
.920
.455
0 out, –3
4
3
2
1
1
0
0
2
1
1
.333
.500
.667
1.167
.500
0 out, -23
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
.000
.000
.000
.000
.000
0 out, 123
5
5
8
2
0
0
0
8
1
1
.400
.375
.400
.775
.333
1 out, -2-
26
39
5
10
2
0
0
5
6
12
.256
.356
.308
.663
.370
1 out, –3
11
10
9
2
0
0
0
8
1
3
.200
.200
.200
.400
.182
1 out, -23
12
11
9
2
0
0
1
9
1
5
.182
.214
.455
.669
.143
1 out, 123
9
8
8
1
0
0
0
7
1
4
.125
.167
.125
.292
.143
So, we can see that the Blue Jays find ways to hit the ball when there are runners on second (.734 OPS with a .384 OBP), but they aren’t translating into an abundance of runs, with just 53.1% of hits bringing in the runner from second base and one additional run because of the lone homer.
We can also see that with runners on second and third, the Jays seem to bat with a toothpick and operate with just a .465 OPS with 18 punchouts. They have six hits in just 37 at-bats and have driven in just 18 runs (48.6%), but work with a .250 BABIP – so there is some further correlation that the Jays are putting the ball in play to some degree, but aren’t scoring runs at a high clip as they could be.
Further diving into the data, the Jays convert most of their runs when they have one out and a runner on third (nine runs in 10 at-bats), which is to be expected, although to the tune of just two hits. This would be sac fly’s, ground ball outs, etc, so the Jays are converting the runs in these very few scenarios, which is good, but not doing so via a hit (hence the .200 average) so either the rally dies or the next batter up doesn’t have a runner on base to either move over or drive in. The Blue Jays’ bats can also get hits when there is a runner on second with zero outs or one out (.417 and .256 averages, respectively), but again, these don’t correlate into runs.
The bats have converted just four runs in 36 (11.1) at-bats with zero outs and five runs in 39 at-bats (10.3%) with one out situations. This can likely be attributed to not wanting to advance the runner past third because you don’t have to (why risk the out at home plate), and potentially because the hits in play are not doing damage, thinking of singles or groundballs versus doubles or more that present a less risk adverse situation for Carlos Febles to send the runner. The Jays do have two extra base hits (doubles) in both scenarios above, but again, the limited damage at the plate is likely a driving cause between these low percentages of runs in these situations.
Looking at these different charts and tables, the Blue Jays are just not converting with runners in scoring position and not finding ways to generate run support for their pitchers. This forces manager John Schneider to rely on these high-leverage arms to get him through a game, as the Jays’ bats can’t capitalize on situations to increase their lead and instead, have to contend with close games and need their pitchers to keep the score tight. It’s a domino effect that does not impact just the one side of the diamond, the pitchers have to continuously pick up the slack when the bats don’t show up, whether that’s the starter or the relievers.
Overall, the bats cannot continue to put up dismal numbers in these situations and need to support their pitchers, whether that is through more power or just not wasting opportunities. Failure to do so will continue to strain the pitching staff and keep putting losses on the record.

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