<p>We&#8217;ve had a few days to let the dust settle on the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. contract situation, and I&#8217;m not sure that the fan base is any more understanding today than they were on Monday <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/blue-jays-needed-to-come-to-an-agreement-with-vladimir-guerrero-jr-after-offering-juan-soto-and-shohei-ohtani-large-contracts">when we learned there would be no deal</a>, at least for now. Still, the beat goes on, and the Blue Jays are back in Dunedin to go through the early days of Spring Training whether they&#8217;ve locked up their superstar for the long-term or not.</p>
<p>Chances are the Guerrero Jr. contract drama is going to be a topic of discussion throughout the season, especially if the Jays are struggling to keep up with the rest of the potential playoff field in the American League. It will be a fascinating situation to monitor for baseball fans over the coming months, even if there&#8217;s an added element of pain for Blue Jays fans.</p>
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<p>One of the variables that interests me the most, and was likely one of the hang-ups in negotiations between Guerrero Jr&#8217;s camp and the front office, is the value of first basemen in general. Over the last decade or more baseball has really evolved how players are valued, and in the process slugging first baseman haven&#8217;t been as coveted as they were in previous generations of the game. Look no further than Pete Alonso struggling to get a long-term deal over the winter, ultimately settling for a two-year deal worth just $54 million. Teams just aren&#8217;t paying a premium for a one-dimensional big bopper in the middle of their lineup anymore.</p>
<p>Looking across the league today, there are just five first basemen making more than 20 million per year. That list would be led by Guerrero Jr., who settled for 28 million before the arbitration deadline for this coming season and also includes Freddie Freeman ($27 million), Bryce Harper ($25.4 million), Matt Olson ($21 million), and Christian Walker ($20 million). That&#8217;s it, and it&#8217;s an interesting cross-section of cases.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/7359/freddie-freeman#:~:text=Freddie%20Freeman%20signed%20a%206,a%20total%20salary%20of%20%2427%2C000%2C000.">Freeman signed a six-year pact with the Dodgers</a> after having been one of the best hitters in the game for 12 years while with the Atlanta Braves. The Dodgers arguably managed to get him on at a bargain rate at the time, only because the Braves refused to pay a true premium for their homegrown star on the wrong side of 30. <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/8658/bryce-harper#:~:text=2019%2D2031%20Free%20Agent,average%20annual%20salary%20of%20%2425%2C384%2C615.">Bryce Harper signed a 13-year, $330 million contract</a> ahead of his age 26 season when he was still an outfielder. Matt Olson is widely considered to have signed <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/21058/matt-olson">a bargain contract</a> with the Braves for eight years and $168 million, and <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/16511/christian-walker">Walker just inked a three-year, $60 million pact</a> ahead of his age 34 season.</p>
<p>As far as long-term deals go, the closest thing to a starting point might be Miguel Cabrera&#8217;s eight-year, $248 million extension he signed with the Tigers in 2014 (giving him 10 years and $292 million remaining), but that&#8217;s nearly a decade ago and Cabrera was already 31 years old. At just 25 years old, Guerrero Jr&#8217;s camp can certainly argue that there isn&#8217;t much for recent precedent among the first base market, outside of maybe the Bryce Harper deal with the Phillies that he signed when he was also in his mid-twenties. That said, that contract was signed six seasons ago as well, so at the very least there is going to be significant inflation to consider there too.</p>
<p>And speaking of inflation, the Juan Soto contract from this offseason changed everything, for a few important reasons. First, it was a record-setting deal at 15 years and $765 million, figures that very few people predicted would be reached. The previous year we saw Shohei Ohtani get a then-record $700 million over 10 years, but he was seen as a true unicorn as a two-way player who brought huge international media attention with him (and a lot of revenue). <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/24661/shohei-ohtani">Ohtani&#8217;s contract also included a ludicrous amount of deferred money</a>, which helped the Dodgers make things work and allowed them to continue to add expensive pieces. With Soto&#8217;s deal, there was a <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/25959/juan-soto#:~:text=Juan%20Soto%20signed%20a%2015,a%20total%20salary%20of%20%2461%2C875%2C000.">$75 million signing bonus</a>, but there was no deferred money.</p>
<p>Where this becomes even more relevant to Guerrero Jr&#8217;s future contract is the fact that Soto offers very little value on the defensive side of the ball. The former National, Padres, and Yankee <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sotoju01.shtml">has posted a negative dWAR value</a> in every season of his seven-year big league career, and arguably should already spend the bulk of his time as a designated hitter. Granted, Soto hits for both power and average at an elite level, but he&#8217;s far from bringing the two-way value that someone like Ohtani gives the Dodgers, and that&#8217;s not going to get better over the life of his 15-year career.</p>
<p>With that in mind, how much does defensive value really matter if we&#8217;re talking about a generational talent as a hitter and one that&#8217;s still in their mid-twenties? That&#8217;s surely the question that Vladdy and his agents are asking right about now, and who could blame them? In fact, as a former Gold Glove winner at first base, and a player who can still handle at least part-time duty at the hot corner as well, there&#8217;s a strong argument that Guerrero Jr. has a more well-rounded game than Soto.</p>
<p>So while I&#8217;m sure some teams that pursue Guerrero Jr. next year will argue about the value of first basemen compared to other positions, I&#8217;m not sure how much it will matter at the end of the day. The reality is, all it takes is a few teams to disregard that variable, and after watching the way the bidding for Soto escalated it&#8217;s hard to imagine it&#8217;ll factor that heavily in the end.</p>
<p>As much as I want to be upset with the face of the Blue Jays for not signing an extension, it&#8217;s hard to blame him for wanting to see just how out of hand the bidding could get, even for a first baseman.</p>
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We've had a few days to let the dust settle on the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. contract situation, and I'm not sure that the fan base is any more understanding today than they were on Monday <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/blue-jays-needed-to-come-to-an-agreement-with-vladimir-guerrero-jr-after-offering-juan-soto-and-shohei-ohtani-large-contracts">when we learned there would be no deal</a>, at least for now. Still, the beat goes on, and the Blue Jays are back in Dunedin to go through the early days of Spring Training whether they've locked up their superstar for the long-term or not.

Chances are the Guerrero Jr. contract drama is going to be a topic of discussion throughout the season, especially if the Jays are struggling to keep up with the rest of the potential playoff field in the American League. It will be a fascinating situation to monitor for baseball fans over the coming months, even if there's an added element of pain for Blue Jays fans.
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&nbsp;

One of the variables that interests me the most, and was likely one of the hang-ups in negotiations between Guerrero Jr's camp and the front office, is the value of first basemen in general. Over the last decade or more baseball has really evolved how players are valued, and in the process slugging first baseman haven't been as coveted as they were in previous generations of the game. Look no further than Pete Alonso struggling to get a long-term deal over the winter, ultimately settling for a two-year deal worth just $54 million. Teams just aren't paying a premium for a one-dimensional big bopper in the middle of their lineup anymore.

Looking across the league today, there are just five first basemen making more than 20 million per year. That list would be led by Guerrero Jr., who settled for 28 million before the arbitration deadline for this coming season and also includes Freddie Freeman ($27 million), Bryce Harper ($25.4 million), Matt Olson ($21 million), and Christian Walker ($20 million). That's it, and it's an interesting cross-section of cases.

<a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/7359/freddie-freeman#:~:text=Freddie%20Freeman%20signed%20a%206,a%20total%20salary%20of%20%2427%2C000%2C000.">Freeman signed a six-year pact with the Dodgers</a> after having been one of the best hitters in the game for 12 years while with the Atlanta Braves. The Dodgers arguably managed to get him on at a bargain rate at the time, only because the Braves refused to pay a true premium for their homegrown star on the wrong side of 30. <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/8658/bryce-harper#:~:text=2019%2D2031%20Free%20Agent,average%20annual%20salary%20of%20%2425%2C384%2C615.">Bryce Harper signed a 13-year, $330 million contract</a> ahead of his age 26 season when he was still an outfielder. Matt Olson is widely considered to have signed <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/21058/matt-olson">a bargain contract</a> with the Braves for eight years and $168 million, and <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/16511/christian-walker">Walker just inked a three-year, $60 million pact</a> ahead of his age 34 season.

As far as long-term deals go, the closest thing to a starting point might be Miguel Cabrera's eight-year, $248 million extension he signed with the Tigers in 2014 (giving him 10 years and $292 million remaining), but that's nearly a decade ago and Cabrera was already 31 years old. At just 25 years old, Guerrero Jr's camp can certainly argue that there isn't much for recent precedent among the first base market, outside of maybe the Bryce Harper deal with the Phillies that he signed when he was also in his mid-twenties. That said, that contract was signed six seasons ago as well, so at the very least there is going to be significant inflation to consider there too.

And speaking of inflation, the Juan Soto contract from this offseason changed everything, for a few important reasons. First, it was a record-setting deal at 15 years and $765 million, figures that very few people predicted would be reached. The previous year we saw Shohei Ohtani get a then-record $700 million over 10 years, but he was seen as a true unicorn as a two-way player who brought huge international media attention with him (and a lot of revenue). <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/24661/shohei-ohtani">Ohtani's contract also included a ludicrous amount of deferred money</a>, which helped the Dodgers make things work and allowed them to continue to add expensive pieces. With Soto's deal, there was a <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/25959/juan-soto#:~:text=Juan%20Soto%20signed%20a%2015,a%20total%20salary%20of%20%2461%2C875%2C000.">$75 million signing bonus</a>, but there was no deferred money.

Where this becomes even more relevant to Guerrero Jr's future contract is the fact that Soto offers very little value on the defensive side of the ball. The former National, Padres, and Yankee <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sotoju01.shtml">has posted a negative dWAR value</a> in every season of his seven-year big league career, and arguably should already spend the bulk of his time as a designated hitter. Granted, Soto hits for both power and average at an elite level, but he's far from bringing the two-way value that someone like Ohtani gives the Dodgers, and that's not going to get better over the life of his 15-year career.

With that in mind, how much does defensive value really matter if we're talking about a generational talent as a hitter and one that's still in their mid-twenties? That's surely the question that Vladdy and his agents are asking right about now, and who could blame them? In fact, as a former Gold Glove winner at first base, and a player who can still handle at least part-time duty at the hot corner as well, there's a strong argument that Guerrero Jr. has a more well-rounded game than Soto.

So while I'm sure some teams that pursue Guerrero Jr. next year will argue about the value of first basemen compared to other positions, I'm not sure how much it will matter at the end of the day. The reality is, all it takes is a few teams to disregard that variable, and after watching the way the bidding for Soto escalated it's hard to imagine it'll factor that heavily in the end.

As much as I want to be upset with the face of the Blue Jays for not signing an extension, it's hard to blame him for wanting to see just how out of hand the bidding could get, even for a first baseman.

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