A day removed from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays failing to reach a contract extension, one question remains: What’s next?

There are a handful of options the Blue Jays can take moving forward. They could stay the course and hope to win and re-sign him before free agency begins, they could fire the front office for this blunder, or they could trade Guerrero Jr.
Let’s take a look at those four options.
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<h2>The “let it play out” route</h2>
Of any route the Blue Jays are going to take, this one is the one they’ll most likely take.
I’m in the camp of “they should’ve paid Guerrero Jr.” whatever he wanted, but I can see the front office’s point of view when it comes to his value. Sure, Guerrero Jr. was one of the best hitters in 2024 and had the MVP-calibre 2021 season with a league-leading 48 home runs. But what about his 2022 season with a 132 wRC+ and his 2023 season when he had a 118 wRC+? That doesn’t even mention the first two seasons of his big-league career.
It’s quite hard to pin down Guerrero Jr.’s value when it comes to on-field performance as he’s just been inconsistent throughout his career. By not signing him before the deadline on Tuesday, the Jays can just let it play out and see how he does in 2025. 
If Guerrero Jr. performs like he did in 2022 and 2023, the Jays may have saved themselves from a questionable contract. On the flip side, if he performs as well as he did in 2024, the Jays may be more willing to agree to whatever Guerrero Jr. wants.
However, if Guerrero Jr. does perform well in 2025, his asking price will likely go up. Of course, there are also other ramifications to losing him in free agency, mainly that if Guerrero Jr. departs the Blue Jays, fan interest will plummet.
There are some benefits to letting it play out, but it may come back and hurt the Jays big time.
<h2>The “fire the front office” route</h2>
On the flip side, you have the “fire the front office” route.
Admittedly, you could’ve made this argument a while back and it would’ve been fair. Until the end of the 2022 season, the worst thing the front office had done was not trade Josh Donaldson when they should’ve and moved on from top prospect Nick Frasso. The former was just unlucky, the latter hasn’t bitten them in the butt yet.
After a disastrous Oct. 8, 2022, where the team blew an 8-1 lead, a lead they had in the top of the sixth in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, the front office got reactionary. They traded the beloved Teoscar Hernández to the team that beat them, the Seattle Mariners for Erik Swanson and Adam Macko. This wasn’t even a bad trade, nor was moving Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno for Daulton Varsho.
With that being said, the goodwill the front office had with the fans eroded from there on out. They returned to the postseason in 2023, just to pull José Berríos from Game 2 when he was getting outs efficiently.
The 2023 off-season will live in infamy. Going all-in for Shohei Ohtani wasn’t a bad move by any means but failing to have a pivot to sign a bit bat. Instead, they ended up signing Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Justin Turner, Yariel Rodríguez, and Kevin Kiermaier, which in part led to them to the 74-88 season.
Of course, the lack of a pivot wasn’t the only reason, as Bo Bichette had his worst season yet and the bullpen had a massive meltdown which would’ve been hard to predict, but it doesn’t reflect well on the team.
The Jays front office didn’t have a bad trade deadline by any means, winning more deals than they lost, but they shouldn’t have been in that position to begin with. Moreover, the lack of development in the farm system has put them in the spot they&#8217;re in now.
At some point, it’s time for a change and President Mark Shapiro’s deal ends at the conclusion of the season with Ross Atkins’ contract ending at the end of the 2026 season. It’s not often an organization fires their general manager during the season, but it’s something to consider for the Blue Jays.
<h2>The “trade” route</h2>
If the Blue Jays believe they can’t come to an agreement with Guerrero Jr. &#8211; either they don’t want to reach his number or believe he won’t drop down to a number they’re comfortable with -, they could trade their franchise player before Spring Training begins.
There’s no sugarcoating this: it would be dumb. After a brutal 2024 season where they finished with a 74-88 record, Guerrero Jr. is the team’s biggest draw. He also happens to be their best player, slashing .323/.396/.544 with 30 home runs in 697 plate appearances for a 165 wRC+ and a 5.5 fWAR last season.
With Guerrero Jr.’s contract expiring at the end of the season, he is essentially a rental, albeit a very good one. They aren’t going to get the value for him like they would’ve after the 2022 season, for example. If all goes terribly wrong this season as it did in 2024, it may be worth revisiting trading Guerrero Jr. at the 2025 trade deadline when teams are open to adding more money to the books.
Another indirect consequence of trading Guerrero Jr. before the season begins is that it would reflect poorly on the organization to sign free agents. This off-season, they’ve added Jeff Hoffman, Yimi García, Anthony Santander, and Max Scherzer in free agency, likely with the promise that they hope to contend. Moving Guerrero Jr. after signing those four players may keep free agents away from Toronto.
So while the “trade Guerrero Jr. route” may be worth revisiting later this season, moving him before the season begins isn’t the right move, even if they could get more value for him now than they would at the 2025 trade deadline.
In a press conference last Thursday, general manager <a href="https://twitter.com/Brandon_N_Wile/status/1890112574760571363">Ross Atkins noted that the door would never close</a>, although the team was still respectful of his deadline. Perhaps something gets done, maybe they’ll agree to something early in free agency, but all I know is that if Guerrero Jr. leaves in free agency, it’ll be hard to watch this team go through another rebuild.
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As always, you can follow me on Bluesky @ryleydelaney.bsky.social.
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A day removed from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays failing to reach a contract extension, one question remains: What’s next?



There are a handful of options the Blue Jays can take moving forward. They could stay the course and hope to win and re-sign him before free agency begins, they could fire the front office for this blunder, or they could trade Guerrero Jr.

Let’s take a look at those four options.
<div class="bam-inline-promotion" data-property-id="330" data-promotion-id="18983" data-context="“web-content-promocard&quot;"></div>
&nbsp;
<h2>The “let it play out” route</h2>
Of any route the Blue Jays are going to take, this one is the one they’ll most likely take.

I’m in the camp of “they should’ve paid Guerrero Jr.” whatever he wanted, but I can see the front office’s point of view when it comes to his value. Sure, Guerrero Jr. was one of the best hitters in 2024 and had the MVP-calibre 2021 season with a league-leading 48 home runs. But what about his 2022 season with a 132 wRC+ and his 2023 season when he had a 118 wRC+? That doesn’t even mention the first two seasons of his big-league career.

It’s quite hard to pin down Guerrero Jr.’s value when it comes to on-field performance as he’s just been inconsistent throughout his career. By not signing him before the deadline on Tuesday, the Jays can just let it play out and see how he does in 2025. 

If Guerrero Jr. performs like he did in 2022 and 2023, the Jays may have saved themselves from a questionable contract. On the flip side, if he performs as well as he did in 2024, the Jays may be more willing to agree to whatever Guerrero Jr. wants.

However, if Guerrero Jr. does perform well in 2025, his asking price will likely go up. Of course, there are also other ramifications to losing him in free agency, mainly that if Guerrero Jr. departs the Blue Jays, fan interest will plummet.

There are some benefits to letting it play out, but it may come back and hurt the Jays big time.
<h2>The “fire the front office” route</h2>
On the flip side, you have the “fire the front office” route.

Admittedly, you could’ve made this argument a while back and it would’ve been fair. Until the end of the 2022 season, the worst thing the front office had done was not trade Josh Donaldson when they should’ve and moved on from top prospect Nick Frasso. The former was just unlucky, the latter hasn’t bitten them in the butt yet.

After a disastrous Oct. 8, 2022, where the team blew an 8-1 lead, a lead they had in the top of the sixth in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, the front office got reactionary. They traded the beloved Teoscar Hernández to the team that beat them, the Seattle Mariners for Erik Swanson and Adam Macko. This wasn’t even a bad trade, nor was moving Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno for Daulton Varsho.

With that being said, the goodwill the front office had with the fans eroded from there on out. They returned to the postseason in 2023, just to pull José Berríos from Game 2 when he was getting outs efficiently.

The 2023 off-season will live in infamy. Going all-in for Shohei Ohtani wasn’t a bad move by any means but failing to have a pivot to sign a bit bat. Instead, they ended up signing Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Justin Turner, Yariel Rodríguez, and Kevin Kiermaier, which in part led to them to the 74-88 season.

Of course, the lack of a pivot wasn’t the only reason, as Bo Bichette had his worst season yet and the bullpen had a massive meltdown which would’ve been hard to predict, but it doesn’t reflect well on the team.

The Jays front office didn’t have a bad trade deadline by any means, winning more deals than they lost, but they shouldn’t have been in that position to begin with. Moreover, the lack of development in the farm system has put them in the spot they're in now.

At some point, it’s time for a change and President Mark Shapiro’s deal ends at the conclusion of the season with Ross Atkins’ contract ending at the end of the 2026 season. It’s not often an organization fires their general manager during the season, but it’s something to consider for the Blue Jays.
<h2>The “trade” route</h2>
If the Blue Jays believe they can’t come to an agreement with Guerrero Jr. - either they don’t want to reach his number or believe he won’t drop down to a number they’re comfortable with -, they could trade their franchise player before Spring Training begins.

There’s no sugarcoating this: it would be dumb. After a brutal 2024 season where they finished with a 74-88 record, Guerrero Jr. is the team’s biggest draw. He also happens to be their best player, slashing .323/.396/.544 with 30 home runs in 697 plate appearances for a 165 wRC+ and a 5.5 fWAR last season.

With Guerrero Jr.’s contract expiring at the end of the season, he is essentially a rental, albeit a very good one. They aren’t going to get the value for him like they would’ve after the 2022 season, for example. If all goes terribly wrong this season as it did in 2024, it may be worth revisiting trading Guerrero Jr. at the 2025 trade deadline when teams are open to adding more money to the books.

Another indirect consequence of trading Guerrero Jr. before the season begins is that it would reflect poorly on the organization to sign free agents. This off-season, they’ve added Jeff Hoffman, Yimi García, Anthony Santander, and Max Scherzer in free agency, likely with the promise that they hope to contend. Moving Guerrero Jr. after signing those four players may keep free agents away from Toronto.

So while the “trade Guerrero Jr. route” may be worth revisiting later this season, moving him before the season begins isn’t the right move, even if they could get more value for him now than they would at the 2025 trade deadline.

In a press conference last Thursday, general manager <a href="https://twitter.com/Brandon_N_Wile/status/1890112574760571363">Ross Atkins noted that the door would never close</a>, although the team was still respectful of his deadline. Perhaps something gets done, maybe they’ll agree to something early in free agency, but all I know is that if Guerrero Jr. leaves in free agency, it’ll be hard to watch this team go through another rebuild.

<hr />

As always, you can follow me on Bluesky @ryleydelaney.bsky.social.

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The three routes the Blue Jays can take with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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