The Toronto Blue Jays can’t afford to wait: The case to spend big this winter
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Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
Tyson Shushkewich
Nov 17, 2025, 08:00 ESTUpdated: Nov 17, 2025, 05:43 EST
The Toronto Blue Jays are hungry to run it back.
Following the Game 7 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series and the initial fallout from the season being over without a ring, the Blue Jays appear ready to go back and compete again.
That validation comes in various forms, such as recent comments from Tyler Heineman, the return of Shane Bieber, or the reports coming from the GM Meetings last week in Las Vegas about the Jays wanting to spend.
It’s no secret that the organization is hell bent on returning to the postseason again. Bringing a World Series Championship back to Toronto would put the country into a frenzy – evidenced by the record-breaking viewership numbers this postseason on Sportsnet – but also fills the coffers of Rogers Communications, which is the main reason they are in this business in the first place. Winning not only brings fans into the building and makes for a good storyline, but all the perks that come with a postseason run – ticket sales, merchandise, hot dogs – all help the bottom line.
With all things considered, the Toronto Blue Jays made a pretty penny this year, and it appears that the front office has the green light to spend this winter if the reports from this offseason are any indication. This isn’t a relatively new development for ownership and the fans, as the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 14-year, $500 million extension and the recent pursuits of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto in free agency should forecast ownership’s willingness to greenlight spending exuberant amounts for the right player. The lack of success in signing these mega-stars in free agency is what is more frustrating for the fanbase, but winning helps solve these issues (on top of the recent additions and changes at the Rogers Centre), which should give Toronto some advantages at the negotiation table this offseason following their runner-up finish.
If the Jays are going to spend, the time is certainly right for ownership to give the front office an all-access pass. When you look at the comparative free agents available this year compared to next, it’s easy to see why the benefits of working the phone lines this year outweigh next.
This winter, the free agent class is led by OF Kyle Tucker, 3B Alex Bregman, DH Kyle Schwarber, SS Bo Bichette, 1B Pete Alonso, RHP Dylan Cease, RHP Michael King, LHP Ranger Suarez, and numerous international free agents, such as 1B/3B Munetaka Murakami and RHP Tatsuya Imai.
Next winter, the class looks a bit different.
Leading the charge will be LHP Tarik Skubal, who will be the most coveted free agent of the group, followed by LHP Chris Sale, RHP Kevin Gausman, RHP Freddy Peralta, RHP Shane Bieber, OF Adolis Garcia, 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B Nico Hoerner, 3B Max Muncy, and Blue Jays outfielders Daulton Varsho and George Springer. A couple of players have club options, such as Braves stalwarts Ronald Acuna Jr and Ozzie Albies, as well as White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr., but those three are likely going nowhere.
While a fair argument could be made that the pitching next winter surpasses the group available this time around, the overall depth is nowhere near as deep when comparing the two classes overall. The Blue Jays are currently without one of their core players in Bichette, who should be the priority for Toronto right now, but they also have some work to do with an open rotation spot, some bullpen spots that need to be filled, and adding some additional power to the lineup (with the rumour mill attaching the Jays to Tucker).
Potentially losing Gausman, Bieber, Berrios (player option), Varsho, and Springer next winter will be a tough pill to swallow, and could be remedied with early extensions to specific players, acquiring outside talent to fill the gaps, or relying on internal sources to slot in and take over the spot, such as Anthony Santander, Addison Barger, Trey Yesavage, or one of the other internal pitching prospects. There is a lot of risk associated with the free agent class next winter, especially from a position player perspective, but that’s why the focus should be put on spending now, compared to next year (and that’s not even including the potential lockout).
Financially, the Jays CBT is projected at ~$235 million per Cot’s Contracts, and the second tier of the CBT is at $264 million this season, which is where we would see if the Jays ownership is willing to spend past or not as second time payors of the tax rate after spending past the threshold last year with the fifth highest CBT payroll in the league. The third and fourth tiers in 2026 are $284 and $305 million, respectively.
If the Jays sign a bona fide starter to a multi-year deal now, the potential loss of Gausman, Berrios, and/or Bieber next winter doesn’t sting nearly as hard, and they can also look to add around that time to plug up the rotation spot leftover (similar to the spot Toronto is in now with Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer departing). Adding someone like Tucker or Bellinger gives the Jays the same insurance if Varsho and/or Springer depart as well, albeit in potentially different areas when you look at the talents Varsho brings to the table compared to the rest (defensive vs. offensive). There is more talent available now to cover those gaps compared to next winter, and although there would be some roster rejigging that would need to happen for 2026 (Ernie Clement and Addison Barger might have to split third base, for example), the overall future of the club would be in better hands.
As I mentioned earlier, this also doesn’t include the potential of a lockout following the 2026 season, which could throw free agency as a whole into disarray if the owners and players can’t ratify a new CBA promptly, let alone the differences in strength between the free agent classes.
The front office should have the money to spend now, numerous free agents are available that can help the team win now, and Toronto holds some power at the table after making it to the World Series and still retaining some key pieces of the team, one that hopefully brings back a core member of that group.
The Jays should have some money to play with, and whether they are willing to blow past the CBT threshold is still to be determined, but the time to strike is now with this current free agent class and the position the organization has put themselves in versus waiting for the 2026/2027 offseason.

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