With a handful of games left in the season, the
Toronto Blue Jays still have something left to play for. They are fighting for their playoff lives, by virtue of the American League being overall atrocious.
The Blue Jays are just barely hanging on, without much credit to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
It’s been a disastrous season for the face of the franchise in year one of his 14-year, $500 million contract extension. Coming off an otherworldly 2025 postseason performance and an electric showing at the World Baseball Classic earlier this year, all signs point towards Guerrero having a monster year for the Blue Jays. Instead, he has gone in the opposite direction.
Up until this point, 2026 has been a write-off season for Guerrero. What has happened to him this year is unlike anything that’s happened in recent memory to a Blue Jays position player. On the pitching side,
Alek Manoah’s sudden fall from grace is the only other comparable, but Manoah didn’t have a half billion dollars attached to his name.
Chances are that Guerrero will finish the season with fewer than 10 home runs, a sub-.700 OPS, the equivalent of Ty France’s 2025 campaign when France hit seven home runs and had an OPS of .681 in 138 games played with the Minnesota Twins and the Blue Jays.
It would be one thing if it were an
Anthony Santander situation where the player has been written off with a significant injury and isn’t clogging up a roster spot. But despite a short seven-day stint on the injured list a few weeks ago, Guerrero has been there, game after game, hitting in the top of the Blue Jays’ batting order.
And that’s the most concerning thing about this backslide season for Guerrero if you’re anyone on the Blue Jays coaching staff. From what we can ascertain, Guerrero is not hiding behind an injury. These struggles are linked to an overall bad approach at the plate and a lack of making a successful adjustment.
At least in 2024, while it was a lost season for the Blue Jays as a whole, Guerrero kicked it into high gear in the second half after a disappointing showing heading into the all-star break. It wasn’t until late June that Guerrero rediscovered his stroke, sporting a .760 OPS on June 14 before raising his OPS to .940 by the season’s end.
His turnaround was significant enough to garner some down-ballot MVP votes in 2024. While it felt like there was momentum or a sense of “brighter days ahead” in Guerrero’s previous slumps, there hasn’t been that same sense of optimism around his approach this year. If he were going to hit his way out of this, he would’ve done it by now.
Guerrero has had very short blips of success, but has yet to go on a sustained run this season. Three of the four worst months by OPS in his career have been this season: May, June, and this past August. His .558 OPS this past month was the third-worst of his career.
This raises even more questions heading into next year, which could be another crucial juncture for this franchise as they attempt to shift into the next phase of contention for the Blue Jays. Is Guerrero an integral part of that plan, or is he a $500-million albatross?
His God-given talent is undeniable, and he has not been immune to struggles at the major league level. For the most part, Guerrero has made successful adjustments, either in the field or at the plate, and emerged as a better player. But this season will undeniably be a teaching point for the 27-year-old.
The results haven’t been for a lack of trying with Guerrero, but the reports earlier this year of him taking upwards of 300 swings per day were a little worrisome. He and the Blue Jays seem to be trying everything to get their most important player back on track, but nothing seems to be working.
If progress were being made, and it seemed like Guerrero had made a significant adjustment and he was gaining traction, there would be a sense of optimism. But if anything, his at-bats are looking progressively worse, which may be the result of carrying the burden of high expectations all season.
Joey Votto made some insightful comments on MLB Network a few weeks ago pertaining to Guerrero’s struggles, and Votto tapped into the expectations that come with a long-term contract. While last year Guerrero was still on his arbitration deal, 2026 was the first year where he was “the guy.”
We as outside observers may underestimate the weight of that burden when a young player becomes the unequivocal face of the franchise.
Let’s give the man some grace. He’s allowed to have an off year, and this is the first time in his career when he’s experienced an extended slump. Baseball players are human, and they won’t always be one-man wrecking crews like Guerrero was during the 2025 postseason.
Not that one game or even one series makes up for all his shortcomings, but there were some promising signs from Guerrero during the Blue Jays’ series earlier this week against the Cleveland Guardians. If we look at single-game Win Probability Added, his
3-for-5 game with a home run and a double was the second-highest WPA game of the season.
For the most part, it’s been a write-off year for Vladdy, but there’s still time for him to salvage part of his season. If he can replicate what he did in Cleveland over the final two weeks of the season, propelling the Blue Jays to a postseason spot, it would calm a lot of fears both internally and externally beyond 1 Blue Jays Way.
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