The Toronto Blue Jays need starting pitching with Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer heading to free agency. Luckily for them, the 2025 free agent pool is full of starters of varying capacities – from front-end names to back-end rotation arms.

One name that sticks out from the group is Dylan Cease, who finished the 2025 season on the San Diego Padres despite being brought up in trade rumours at the deadline. After spending five seasons with the Chicago White Sox, Cease was moved right before the 2024 season in exchange for three prospects and reliever Steven Wilson.

At the time, the White Sox were trading the right-hander on a bit of a dip in his production. After amassing a 6.4 bWAR and finishing as the runner-up for the AL Cy Young Award in 2022 (2.20 ERA with 227 strikeouts and a 3.8 BB/9), he fell to a 4.58 ERA and a 3.72 FIP, uncorking a league-leading 14 wild pitches.

What followed was an eerily similar path over his next two years with San Diego. In 2024, Cease posted a 3.47 ERA and a 3.10 FIP through 189 1/3 innings, while also tossing a no-hitter against the Washington Nationals. He would finish fourth in NL Cy Young voting and put forward a stellar 6.5 H/9.

In his contract year, Cease saw his fair share of ups and downs. The 29-year-old posted a 4.55 ERA across 32 starts while finishing the season with an 8.1 H/9 and 85 earned runs allowed across 168 innings. It was the second-fewest innings he has thrown while making a minimum of 32 starts, and the second-most hits he’s allowed in that same timeframe. However, the underlying stats tell a bit of a different story.

Cease would finish the campaign with a 3.56 FIP and a league-leading 11.5 K/9, striking out 215 batters. While he didn’t pitch as many innings as some of his cohorts who went the 32+ starts, Cease was striking out opposing bats all over the place. He generated a 33.4 percent whiff rate (95th percentile) and walked away with a 29.8 percent strikeout rate as well, finishing in the 89th percentile. He finished sixth among qualified starters with his 215 punchouts and ranked behind only Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet with his 29.8 percent punchout rate. Cease also finished the 2025 campaign with a 3.58 SIERA, ranking 13th among starters.

Working with a six-pitch mix that heavily revolves around his fastball and slider, Cease can hit the upper 90s with the heat and then busts opponents with a slider, which generated a 42.8 percent and 23 percent whiff rate and put-away rate, respectively. He also tosses a knuckle-curve, which he can get some swing and miss on when located properly, but becomes a bit of a meatball if it catches too much of the plate and also mixes in a sweeper on occasion, which was one of his better pitches this campaign, although he only used it 3.3% of the time.

In the postseason, Cease made one start for the Padres in the NL Wild Card, tossing 3 2/3 innings of three-hit ball and zero earned runs allowed. He struck out five that day to keep the Padres’ postseason hopes alive, as they won 3-0, but the Chicago Cubs would take Game 3 to send the Padres home early from October baseball.

If the Toronto Blue Jays want a top-end starter, then Dylan Cease checks off quite a few boxes. He’s a strikeout thrower who tosses a hard fastball, something the Jays don’t possess in their current rotation picture, and he’s durable, making 32 or more starts dating back to 2021. He’s not an ace, but there is no real bona fide ace on the free agent market this year.

There are some risks associated with Cease. He does lose his command at times, authoring a 3.8 BB/9 over his seven-year career. He’s hovered around the 3.0 to 4.0 mark since 2021, and while he can strike out opposing bats with ease, the walks came back to bite him at times this year and seasons past.

MLBTR has predicted Cease earning seven years, $189 million – coming in at a $27 million AAV. That’s a considerable chunk of change to a pitcher coming off a contract year where he left some things on the table, but there is no denying the strikeout numbers and his past seasons, where he has been a dominant force on the mound.

The Blue Jays have only gone past five years for a starter just once under Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro, and it would be interesting to see if they are willing to go the distance with someone like Cease on the open market. Atkins signed Berrios to an extension after the Puerto Rican product was acquired at the trade deadline the season before, so this is a bit of unfamiliar territory in some regards. The Jays could look to offer a shorter deal, around the 3-5 year mark for Cease, or something revolving around player options if they don’t want to guarantee the years. However, with Kevin Gausman and Eric Lauer hitting free agency next winter and Jose Berrios holding a player option, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see the Jays front office give a starter some years to hold down the starting rotation for the foreseeable future.

Cease was offered the qualifying offer but has yet to accept/decline.