We’re just a few weeks away from the Toronto Blue Jays opening the season at home against the Baltimore Orioles on March 27, and that means it’s time to start thinking about the team from a betting perspective.

It was an eventful offseason for the Blue Jays, who most notably traded for infielder Andres Gimenez and signed outfielder Anthony Santander to a five-year deal. They also signed veteran starter Max Scherzer to bolster their pitching depth and added reliever Jeff Hoffman. Right-hander Yimi Garcia was also brought back to bolster the bullpen.

Just prior to spring training, online sportsbooks began posting their various futures odds betting markets for every MLB team. Let’s take a look at how oddsmakers believe the Blue Jays will fare this season by examining a few of those markets and pointing out a few potential wagers.

All odds are courtesy of bet365.

It’s very obvious that oddsmakers believe there won’t be a championship banner flying north of the border this season, as bet365 has 18 teams listed with better odds than Toronto (+4500) to win the World Series this year. Everyone is chasing the Los Angeles Dodgers (+250) to win it all, and three American League East teams—New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, and Boston Red Sox—all have significantly better odds than the Blue Jays to win the World Series.

As for the odds to win the American League, the Blue Jays have the 12th-shortest odds at +2800, with only the Los Angeles Angels (+7500), the Athletics (+7500), and Chicago White Sox (+22500) having longer odds.

If we narrow it down to the odds to win the AL East, Toronto has the worst odds at +1300, well behind the Tampa Bay Rays with +950 odds in the fourth spot. The Yankees are the runaway favourites with even money odds to capture the AL East crown.

The oddsmakers at bet365 have set Toronto’s season win total at over/under 78.5 games, a few games below .500. This projection is much lower than the 85 wins PECOTA is estimating for Toronto this season, but higher than what the folks at FanGraphs are projecting at 74 wins for the Blue Jays. Some online sportsbooks opened with a line of 76.5 wins for the Blue Jays, but many of those markets were quickly adjusted to 77.5 or 78.5 after taking early action on the over.

There’s obviously a high variance across these three estimates, but with several key players in the walk years of their current contracts, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, it’s difficult to predict the direction of the team this season. There’s a path to competitiveness with so many proven veterans on the roster, but if things go south early in the season, there’s also the possibility the front office decides to blow up the roster and begin to rebuild.

If the team does somehow extend the contracts of some of its key players over the coming weeks before the first pitch flies, bettors would definitely feel much better about locking in a wager on the over 78.5 wins. But for the time being, it’s probably best to pass on this betting market and focus your attention elsewhere.

Oddsmakers don’t like Toronto’s chances of making the postseason this year, as evidenced by the +250 odds (28.5% implied probability) they’ve given them to play some October baseball. However, if you feel strongly about PECOTA’s projection of 85 wins for this team, that translates to roughly a 50% chance of making the postseason.

There’s not much value at -340 (77.2% implied odds) to wager on the team not making the playoffs. Eating that much juice isn’t a good idea in this betting market, especially given Toronto’s potential to be competitive should things break its way early.

There are two award markets and one player prop I believe bettors should at least consider backing from a Blue Jays perspective.

Bichette’s 2024 season was ruined by a calf injury and later a finger injury that required offseason surgery. He’s healthy now, though, and if he can bounce back to an elite level, there’s massive value at +750 to back him in this particular market. Motivation will be high in his walk year to produce at a high level and remain healthy in order to score a massive contract next winter, and he’s shown that he can be one of the top offensive players in the league before when he led the AL in hits in both 2021 and 2022.

Four players—Mike Trout (+350), Shane McClanahan (+400), Jacob deGrom (+425), and Felix Bautista (+475)—have shorter odds than Bichette in this betting market, but I believe deGrom is the only other player that has as much rebound potential as Bichette in this spot.

Make no mistake, Vlad is a longshot in this category with Aaron Judge (+300) and Bobby Witt Jr. (+400) having the shortest odds to earn the honour. Either Shohei Ohtani or Judge has won the award since 2021, but with Ohtani now playing in the NL, it opens the door for another player to have a crack at dethroning the Yankees’ hulking outfielder.

Guerrero Jr. came close to winning this award in 2021, hitting .311 with an MLB-best 48 home runs and an AL-best 1.002 OPS. But Ohtani was the unanimous MVP with 30 first-place votes that year, and had it not been for his otherworldly two-way performance, Vlad would have easily been crowned the AL MVP.

Guerrero Jr. has a ton to prove this year as he seeks a new deal that could be upwards of $500 million (or even $600 million) on the open market, assuming he can’t come to an agreement with the Blue Jays on an extension. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him put together an epic campaign to justify those absurd numbers, and at juicy +1400 odds, it might be worth a few bucks to back him as a longshot in this betting market.

This number seems a little low to me with Vladdy in a contract year. Surprisingly, he hasn’t exceeded this projection in the past two seasons, but he did belt 32 homers in 2022 and 48 in 2021. His ZiPS projection has him hitting 30 home runs this year, right where the oddsmakers have him pegged, but given it’s a prove-it year with his contract situation, it’s very likely he produces at a high level offensively with impressive power numbers. Vladdy’s exit velocity, expected slugging percentage, and hard-hit rate all ranked in the top three percent of MLB players last season. As for durability, Vladdy has played 156 games or more in each of the past four seasons, so bettors shouldn’t worry too much about him missing enough time to fall short of this milestone.