It is November 5th, and things are already trending in the right direction for the Toronto Blue Jays this winter.

Shane Bieber, the right-hander the Jays acquired at the trade deadline, is sticking with the club for another year after opting into his $16 million player option. The option was a part of the deal he signed with the Cleveland Guardians last season and included a $4 million buyout, which would have been triggered had Bieber decided to test the open market. Many were expecting the California product to head into free agency for more money and years, but it appears that Bieber wants to run it back one more year with the Blue Jays.

This is a considerable win for the Jays, as a starter of Bieber’s calibre likely would have seen the organization have to spend more than the $16 million he is earning this year. Starters are earning considerably more these days, and the figures are easily surpassing $10 million plus. For example, last winter, Matt Boyd netted $14.5 million AAV with the Cubs, Walker Buehler signed for $21.05 million with the Boston Red Sox, Justin Verlander landed with the San Francisco Giants for $15 million, and Charlie Morton signed for $15 million with the Atlanta Braves. Bieber has considerable upside compared to the arms listed above, although when he signed, he was recovering from Tommy John surgery and wasn’t going to pitch until later in the year, likely impacting his AAV and one reason why the player option was likely included.

When healthy, Bieber has been one of the best arms in the game.

For his career, the right-hander owns a 3.24 ERA and a 3.15 FIP across 883 1/3 innings with a 1.111 WHIP. Before the 2025 trade deadline, Bieber had spent his entire eight-year career with Cleveland, earning the 2020 Cy Young Award and two All-Star nominations. The Jays acquired Bieber at the trade deadline in exchange for prospect Khal Stephen, with the Jays needing to bolster the rotation for their run down the stretch and the postseason once Bieber’s Tommy John rehab was complete.

Bieber would debut for Toronto on August 22nd and authored a 3.57 ERA and a 4.47 FIP through 40 1/3 innings, allowing 34 hits and 16 earned runs through seven starts. He generated an 8.3 K/9 and a minuscule 1.6 BB/9 in his limited time with the Jays. In the postseason, Bieber was the Jays’ go-to arm to start the series on the road, doing so in the ALDS and the ALCS and starting Game 3, respectively. Through 18 2/3 innings and five outings (four starts), he allowed eight earned runs and a 1.45 WHIP with a 3.86 ERA. Bieber was on the wrong side of the Game 7 outing against the Dodgers in the World Series, hanging a pitch to Will Smith in extra innings that saw Los Angeles earn the championship for another year.

With Bieber staying in Toronto, the Blue Jays’ rotation picture becomes a lot clearer. Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer are free agents, leaving considerable holes in the Jays’ rotation. Toronto’s rotation picture now looks like:

The emergence of Trey Yesavage also helps shore up the rotation, as he becomes an internal option the club can lean on heading into the new year. The Blue Jays then have one open spot to consider, which they can either find within the organization or find outside, either through free agency or trade.

From an internal standpoint, the Jays would have a few arms vying for the spot in Eric Lauer, Bowden Francis, Adam Macko, and Ricky Tiedemann. Lauer likely has the inside track for the spot after the impressive 2025 season he put forward, with Francis the next in line before prospects like Macko or Tiedemann come into the picture. Jake Bloss won’t be ready to go to start the year, but he could factor in later in the season.

On the open market, there are numerous arms that the Jays can turn to. Whether Bassitt or Scherzer return to Toronto, outside of those arms, the likes of Dylan Cease, Ranger Suarez, Shota Imanaga, Framber Valdez, Michael King, and Zac Gallen are all potential fits on the high side of the equation, which is where the Jays should be looking after their recent World Series run.

Overall, the baseball world was pretty shocked that Bieber decided to stay in Toronto and not test the open market. It’s a good thing for the organization that he decided to stay, and next winter, the Jays will have to look at their rotation again as he, Gausman, and potentially Berrios (player option) are all free agent eligible.

In the meantime, with Bieber staying for a relatively team-friendly deal, the Jays have one less issue to deal with this winter, while the front office hopefully spends their hard-earned postseason money to try and return to October baseball in 2026.