July 12 Gameday: Blue Jays’ Kevin Gausman starts rubber match against Padres

Photo credit: © David Frerker-Imagn Images

Jul 12, 2026, 15:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 12, 2026, 14:59 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays saw their three-game winning streak come to an end Saturday, falling 8-7 to the San Diego Padres in a back-and-forth affair that saw former Blue Jay Ty France deliver the go-ahead home run late.

That loss sets up a rubber match at Petco Park on Sunday to decide who heads into the All-Star Break with a series win. Both clubs sit under .500, with the Blue Jays sitting 45-50 through 95 games, while San Diego has climbed to 47-48 and now sits in third place in the NL West. Sunday’s game is the last before the break, and Toronto has a chance to close out its second straight series win of this nine-game road trip through the West Coast.

Kevin Gausman takes the mound for his 20th start of the season, carrying a 4.32 ERA across 106.1 innings with 108 strikeouts, and 9.1 K/9, accompanied by a .248 opponent batting average. His last outing came against San Francisco, where he worked 5.1 innings and allowed four earned runs on five hits.

Recently, Gausman has worked through a rough patch, posting a 5.71 ERA over his last three starts. Toronto is 8-11 in games Gausman has started this year, and Sunday is a chance for him to right the ship before the break.

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Standing opposite him is Germán Márquez, still working his way back from a forearm injury. The right-hander owns a 5.02 ERA and a 5.7 K/9 rate across his first eight starts, with a .257 opponent batting average, but the surface numbers are skewed by a rough beginning to his return, having surrendered 10 earned runs across just 6 2/3 innings in his first two starts back.

He looked far better his last time out on Wednesday against Arizona, tossing five shutout innings and allowing just three hits. Márquez has struggled to locate his fastball this season, with opponents slugging .462 against the pitch, a trend that should favour the Blue Jays’ lineup that has started to heat up.

The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. fans know and love may have finally arrived. He’s on a four-game hitting streak, which includes a multi-hit performance on Saturday capped by a three-run homer to tie the game, and he’s posted +4 run value against four-seam fastballs this season.

Kazuma Okamoto has been even more dangerous against the pitch, carrying a +12 run value on four-seamers, easily the best mark on the team, with 15 of his 22 home runs this season coming on fastballs. The Blue Jays offence should be looking dead-red against Marquez in a matchup that certainly favours them.

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The offence has been swinging for the fences recently, but I haven’t heard many complaints. They’ve hit 10 home runs over its last 10 games with a .332 slugging percentage and 19 extra-base hits, even while batting just .216 as a team in that stretch. Guerrero Jr. is hitting .243 over his last 10 with two doubles, two homers and six walks, while Okamoto has added three home runs and three walks despite a .211 average in the same span.

San Diego’s bats have shown flashes, if not quite the same consistency. The Padres have also hit 10 home runs over their last 10 games, slugging .369, though they’re batting just .238 as a team with 7.8 hits per game in that span. Manny Machado has paced the group with three home runs and eight RBI over the last 10 games, while Jackson Merrill has heated up as well, hitting .308 with two homers and three walks in that stretch.

Pitching has been the bigger concern for both clubs lately. The Padres’ staff carries a 4.86 ERA over its last 10 games and has allowed 11 home runs in that span, while Blue Jays’ pitchers have posted a 4.08 ERA with 12 homers surrendered over the same stretch, with four bullpen arms having to be used in Saturday’s affair.

A win on Sunday would give Toronto back-to-back series victories on the road and send the club into the All-Star break following a 5-4 road trip. It’s not where the Blue Jays would have hoped to be at the halfway point. However, at just 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, the postseason is anything but a dream.

With Márquez’s fastball troubles lining up well against a Toronto lineup led by Guerrero Jr. and Okamoto, the Blue Jays have a genuine opportunity to close out the first half on a high note and take this series against the Padres before the league takes its four-day pause.

Location: San Diego, CA (Petco Park)
First Pitch: 4:10 PM ET
Watch/Listen: Sportsnet, SN590

Starting Pitchers

Toronto Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman: 4-8, 4.32 ERA, 106.1 IP, 108 SO, 29 BB
San Diego Padres – Germán Márquez: 4-2, 5.02 ERA, 37.2 IP, 24 SO, 18