John Schneider said Vladimir Guerrero Jr. "was tight swinging and I don't want to push it with him. Obviously he's been working a lot. I think that plays into how he's feeling." Blue Jays feel "he's where we want him to be and he's really close (at the plate), so I didn't want Show more
Blue Jays: A stint on the IL could do Vladimir Guerrero Jr. some good
Photo credit: © Eakin Howard-Imagn Images
By Ian Hunter
Jul 9, 2026, 18:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 9, 2026, 17:55 EDT
Nobody could use a break more than Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
With five home runs through his first 88 games, the Toronto Blue Jays’ first baseman on pace for nine home runs this season. Not that home run totals are a barometer for a great hitter, but that’s a frightening projection for Guerrero Jr., who has averaged 29 home runs a season since his debut in 2019.
The 2026 season has already been the season from hell for Guerrero Jr., and there’s still a second half yet to play. It would be one thing if Vladdy were showing signs of getting out of his funk, but a solo home run in the Blue Jays’ series finale on Wednesday against the San Francisco Giants can’t paper over the fact that Guerrero Jr. has an uphill battle to salvage his season.
Even though fans voted for Guerrero Jr. as the starting first baseman for the American League All-Star Game, he made the wise decision to bow out and focus on nursing the back issues that have been plaguing him for close to a month.
Many had wondered whether the lingering effects of back tightness were still hampering Guerrero Jr., as the issues were first reported in mid-June when he was scratched from the lineup for a few games against the Yankees on June 13 and 14.
Those back issues flared up again on June 19 at Wrigley Field, when he was removed mid-game against the Chicago Cubs, and was a late scratch for a game last week at Rogers Centre against the New York Mets.
Kudos to Vladdy for grinding through the past month-plus with this injury, but he may be doing more harm than good.
It was admirable for Guerrero Jr. to politely decline the All-Star Game appearance, but he’s still playing through this injury on the Blue Jays’ West Coast swing through Seattle, San Francisco and San Diego.
Why didn’t the Blue Jays just put him on the injured list last weekend, give him the All-Star break to rest and recover, and reactivate him when the team returns to Rogers Centre on July 17? That would be a full 13 days of recovery, more than enough time for an IL stint.
Instead, Guerrero Jr. is still starting most games at first base, and when he doesn’t, he’s more than likely serving as the designated hitter as Sean Keys gets the odd start.
Guerrero Jr. is integral to the Blue Jays’ lineup, and losing him for any period makes this team worse. As the team fights to pull itself above .500 for the umpteenth time this year, it’s hard to see the Blue Jays doing that without their superstar first baseman in the lineup.
Wouldn’t it benefit the Blue Jays more to have a fresher Guerrero Jr. post-All-Star break, rather than trying to play through the back issues and dig himself out of this career-worst funk?
The timing of this slump couldn’t be worse, as the first baseman is in year one of his 14-year, $500 million contract extension with the Blue Jays. Although he had a decent 2025 regular season, and more than delivered in the playoffs last year, Guerrero Jr. might be on track for a 1.5 fWAR season while earning $40 million in 2026.
FanGraphs’ Value metric says Guerrero Jr. has delivered $6.2 million in value for the Blue Jays this season, and at the pace he’s going, it’s hard to imagine that number being much higher than $10 million by season’s end.
It’s no secret what’s plagued the Blue Jays’ first baseman to this point: the increased chase outside the strike zone, being overly aggressive early in the count, and a general lack of hard contact off the bat have all been contributors to his below-average 96 wRC+. If Guerrero Jr. isn’t a hitter with extra-base pop, he’s a singles hitter, which the Blue Jays already have a bounty of.
This wouldn’t be a phantom IL stint, as Guerrero Jr. seems hampered with each game he plays. There’s something to be said for a player who hasn’t been on the injured list in his eight-year career, but if there ever was a window for Guerrero Jr. to duck out for a few weeks, now would be it.
All the extra swings he’s taking daily — around 300 pre-game and 100 or more post-game — can’t be helping his cause. I know if I took 400 swings at the driving range, my arms would quit after two large buckets. Also, the odds of having a eureka moment at swing 399 are very slim.
Via @ShiDavidi, Vlad Guerrero Jr. estimates he's been doing “a lot, like 300 swings a day before games, after games, probably like 100 … I have to get better and sitting here (in clubhouse), I’m not going to get better. I have to take a lot of swings” sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/bl…
At some point, put down the bat and go for a soak in the cold tub.
If the Blue Jays are going to turn things around in the second half, it’s going to be because of Guerrero Jr. He drives the bus in this lineup; as he goes, so do the rest of the Blue Jays.
It’s a weight that no single player on a 26-man roster should bear, but as the franchise’s $500 million man, that’s a responsibility Guerrero Jr. will carry for the next 14 years.
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