The Toronto Blue Jays are in Seattle to face the Mariners. This series is significant for several reasons. First, it’s a rematch of last year’s ALCS, which the Blue Jays won in Game 7, advancing to the World Series for the first time in 32 years. Second, the Blue Jays currently sit three games back of the Mariners for the final Wild Card spot in the American League.

By this time last year, the Blue Jays were 49-38 and had just taken over the lead in the AL East, which they held onto for the remainder of the season. Now, the Blue Jays are five games under .500 and 11.5 games back of the Tampa Bay Rays for the division lead.

As for the Mariners, they were 45-42 at this time last year, while this year they are 44-43. Despite having a very similar record to last year, the Mariners are actually in a better spot. They have the same record as the Texas Rangers, who are leading the AL West. At this time last year, the Mariners were seven games back of the Houston Astros for the top spot in their division.

While the two teams are in very different places leading into this series, they’ve both dealt with struggles from their star players. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is slashing .267/.348/.350 with 34 RBIs and just four home runs.

While Guerrero has struggled with a lack of power all season, he seems to be struggling more as the season goes on. In March and April, he slashed .354/.438/.469 with two home runs, nine extra-base hits (XBH) and 15 RBIs. He didn’t have a lot of power, but he was still producing.

In May, he slashed .232/.339/.382 with one home run, three XBH, and nine RBIs. That was already a significant drop-off from the beginning of the season, but it got even worse in June, when Guerrero slashed .198/.235/.264 with one home run, four XBH, and 10 RBIs.

At the end of April, Guerrero was tied for third in hits in MLB (40) and third among qualified players in batting average. He’s now tied for 58th in hits with 81 and 57th in batting average.

As much as Guerrero has struggled, the Mariners have dealt with similar challenges from their star catcher, Cal Raleigh. Raleigh is slashing .163/.269/.301 with eight home runs and 24 RBIs in 2026. He missed a month between May and June with a right oblique strain, which he suffered on May 1, but wasn’t placed on the IL until May 16.

Before suffering the injury, he was slashing .190/.273/.389 with seven home runs and 18 RBIs. In the 15 games since he returned, he’s slashing .167/.344/.250 with one home run and six RBIs.

Raleigh’s struggles are stark in comparison to 2025, when he finished second to Aaron Judge in AL MVP voting. By this time last year, Raleigh was slashing .268/.378/.631 with 33 home runs and 71 RBIs. Obviously, Raleigh’s injury plays a major role in his decreased production in 2026, but like Guerrero, he hasn’t been able to find his form even when healthy.

Guerrero hasn’t had the same challenges with injuries that Raleigh has, though he has missed games due to back tightness. That may be partly because of the amount of work Guerrero has been doing to sort out his swing. He’s apparently been taking hundreds of swings before and after each game in an effort to work through his slump. While the effort is commendable, it’s a lot of strain on the body.

Guerrero’s problem seems to stem from problems with his timing and plate discipline. His squared-up rate is down from the 81st percentile in 2025 to the 58th in 2026. That’s despite his bat speed being similar to last year (76.7 mph in 2025 vs. 76.3 in 2026).

He’s also chasing a lot more. In 2025, Guerrero was in the 89th percentile for chase rate. In 2026, he’s in the 44th percentile. His strikeout rate is actually down from 13.8 per cent in 2025 to 11.2 per cent in 2026. However, the combination of squaring up less while chasing more means that Guerrero’s hard-hit rate is down from the 90th percentile in 2025 to the 65th in 2026 and his barrel rate is down from the 76th percentile in 2025 to the 35th in 2026.

As for Raleigh, his hard rate is down from the 85th percentile in 2025 to the 14th in 2026. His barrel rate is also down from the 99th percentile in 2025 to the 71st in 2026. His average exit velocity is also down from the 79th percentile in 2025 to the 27th in 2026.

While Guerrero has been struggling offensively, he hasn’t let it affect his defence. Guerrero is second in defensive runs saved (DRS) among first basemen (5). His range has improved from the 26th percentile in 2025 to the 89th in 2026, though his arm strength is down from the 38th percentile in 2025 to the 25th in 2026.

Raleigh, meanwhile, has struggled more on defence than last year. His pop time (39th percentile vs. 13th), framing (93rd vs. 40), and caught stealing (66th vs. 32nd) are all down compared to 2025. The only area he’s improved is blocking (13th vs. 96th).

The Blue Jays and Mariners find themselves in very different positions despite similar struggles for both their star players. A big part of that is pitching rather than offence. The two teams have very similar slash lines (.248/.327/.390 for the Blue Jays vs. .232/.313/.381 for the Mariners) and have scored almost the same number of runs (354 for the Blue Jays vs. 357 for the Mariners).

However, the Blue Jays have given up 4o more runs than the Mariners (383 for the Blue Jays vs. 343 for the Mariners. Seattle’s pitching staff has the fifth-best ERA (3.65), while Toronto’s have the 12th-best (4.08).

This weekend’s series is important for the Blue Jays to stay in the AL Wild Card race. The Mariners have won three straight and are 6-4 in their last 10. While the Blue Jays are coming off a series win against the New York Mets, they are 3-7 in their last 10. Their 2-1 win over the Mets on Monday snapped a six-game losing streak after the Blue Jays climbed back to .500 for the first time since May 29.

As difficult as 2026 has been for Guerrero, it’s been even more difficult for Raleigh. Despite that, the Blue Jays are in a worse spot heading into their weekend series. The last time these teams met, Guerrero was awarded the ALCS MVP after the Blue Jays defeated the Mariners to advance to the World Series. Now, he’s desperately trying to get back on track after the worst stretch of his career.

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