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Blue Jays: Reconciling expectations versus reality with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
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Photo credit: © John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
Ben Wrixon
May 5, 2026, 08:00 EDTUpdated: May 5, 2026, 04:26 EDT
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the $500 million man in Toronto. He’s the highest-paid player in Blue Jays history, the face of the franchise, and likely to end his career atop all the organization’s offensive leaderboards.
He’s off to a strong start at the plate this season with a .331/.416/.431 slash line. He looks primed to compete for his first batting title. Yet, maddeningly, the man who once slugged 48 home runs has gone deep just twice this season. That’s the same number as Myles Straw and fewer than Brandon Valenzuela, who started the season in Triple-A
What gives?
This lack of home run production is nothing new for Guerrero. He only hit 23 round-trippers last season before blasting eight long balls during his historic postseason run. Since that breakout campaign in 2021, he’s consistently been in the 25-to-30 home run range despite possessing elite raw power.
Many presumed Guerrero would rediscover his power stroke after that legendary showing in the playoffs, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Unfortunately, it may be time to accept that Guerrero is never going to be a consistent 40-home run threat despite being a fantastic hitter overall. 
The main reason Guerrero isn’t hitting home runs right now is the same as always: he’s not elevating the ball enough. His current 19.3% flyball rate would be one of his lowest marks in a 162-game season, while his groundball/flyball ratio of 0.93 is his highest since 2022. 
His quality of contact metrics is also down across the board as he’s seemingly chasing base hits. His hard-rate rate is down over five percent from 2025, and he’s barrelling the ball less. His average exit velocity has dropped half a mile per hour despite still topping out at a max exit velocity of 116 mph. 
Selling out to hit more home runs is a recipe for wild swings, strikeouts, and unproductive at-bats. Still, Guerrero appears too content with singles when the Blue Jays desperately need some over-the-fence power. The bloop hits to the outfield help his batting average, but where are the missiles being launched over the centre field wall? 
Guerrero is at his most dangerous when he’s trying to do damage—he said so himself during the postseason. Yes, his timing at the plate matters, but it’s his mindset more than anything that often dictates production. Guerrero seems to be thinking like a leadoff hitter right now instead of a middle-of-the-order bat. The Blue Jays need more. 
This is especially true when Guerrero is up to bat with runners on base. During the opening series of the season against the Athletics, he came up with runners in scoring position yet asked for a review on a hit-by-pitch that the umpires initially missed. He had an opportunity to drive in multiple runs with one swing, yet instead chose to pass the baton. These are the moments when he should be thinking about doing damage. 
Guerrero might just be a base hit machine whose in-game power never consistently measures up to his raw ability. He may never slug like Aaron Judge or Yordan Alvarez. That doesn’t mean he isn’t great—he absolutely is—but it’s nonetheless slightly disappointing given his natural ability. It’s time to appreciate Vladdy for who he is rather than constantly hoping he’ll be someone he isn’t. 

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