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Examining whether the 2026 Blue Jays will sink like the 2024 team or swim like the 2025 team
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Photo credit: © Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
Ryley Delaney
May 24, 2026, 12:00 EDTUpdated: May 24, 2026, 11:06 EDT
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It’s sink or swim time for the Toronto Blue Jays.
After 52 games in 2026, they have a 25-27 record, now sitting 10.5 games back of the American League East-leading Tampa Bay Rays. At this point in the last two seasons, they’ve had a similar record.
In 2024, the Blue Jays had a 23-29 record entering their 53rd season on May 27th. They have an identical record as they did after game 52 last season, 25-27. In one season, they sank, in the other, they swam and nearly made it to shore.
We’ll compare the 2026 season with the 2024 and 2025 seasons, looking at the numbers and how the rest of the season went.

To sink: The 2024 season

The Blue Jays’ 52nd game in 2024 was played on May 26th, where they were walked off by the Detroit Tigers. That loss extended their losing streak to three and dropped their record to 23-29.
Heading into May 27th’s game, the Blue Jays were actually getting solid production from their offence, slashing .235/.314/.376 in 1,914 plate appearances, giving them a 98 wRC+. That ranked right in the middle of the pack, but their 46 home runs were tied for the seventh-fewest in the big leagues.
Their starting pitching at this point was also solid, authoring a 4.01 ERA (15th) and 4.13 FIP (19th) in 278.1 innings pitched. They were also in the middle of the pack in strike out rate (22.7%) and walk rate (7.6%).
What really doomed the 2024 season was their relief pitching. After that walk off loss, the Blue Jays bullpen were one of three teams that had a bullpen ERA above 5, sitting at 5.01 over 172.1 innings pitched. Their FIP of 5.01 was equally bad, and a big reason for that was thanks to giving up 30 home runs, the second-most in the league at that point.
The year prior, Erik Swanson, Tim Mayza, and Jordan Romano were all reliable, high-leverage relievers. Romano and Swanson missed a large chunk of the start of the 2024 season due to injury, while Mayza was DFA’d at the end of June.
That was one of two main reasons why the Blue Jays’ struggled in 2024. The other reason was because of a decline in performance from Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, and Bo Bichette. It was Bichette in particular who struggled.
After May 26th, the shortstop was slashing .247/.298/.353 with three home runs in 205 plate appearances, giving him an 86 wRC+. His struggles only got worse from there, slashing .221/.274/.320 with four home runs in 328 plate appearances on July 10th, before heading to the injured list for essentially the remainder of the season.
There was still brief hope that the 2024 Blue Jays were going to be able to turn it around, as they won their last four games in May, including a series sweep of the Chicago White Sox. On May 31st, Davis Schneider hit a walk-off home run against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the bottom of the 14th. However, even he declined for the remainder of the season.
The Jays continued to play .500 baseball through the first half of June. But entering June 17th’s game with a 35-36 record, they lost 7-3 to the Boston Red Sox, which began a seven-game losing streak. In July, they went 12-14, but the damage was done, as the Jays sold off numerous pieces of their roster ahead of the trade deadline.
Their best month of the season was in August, scoring 131 runs in 28 games, while going 16-12 for a .571 winning percentage, but any chance of a late season rally was quickly dashed with a 7-17 September. 
Another big reason for the Jays struggles, on top of a struggling bullpen and decline from three key players, is the fact they didn’t have a pivot when Shohei Ohtani signed with the Dodgers.
They didn’t make the same mistake in the 2024/2025 off-season.

To swim: The 2025 season

The Jays still went big game hunting in 2025, being involved in the Juan Soto sweepstakes, and also the Rōki Sasaki race. They fell short for both free agents, but managed to sign a big bat in Anthony Santander.
Earlier in the off-season, they traded for Andrés Giménez, and even brought back Yimi García, who was one of a handful players traded ahead of the 2024 trade deadline. They also signed future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, with the Giménez and Scherzer transactions proving to be useful in the postseason.
Like the year prior, the Blue Jays had a slow start to their 2025 season, as it was very stop and go. They’d win a series, then lose their next one, but entering April 19th’s game, the Jays had a 12-8 record. They then proceeded to lose 12 of their next 16 games.
Throughout this season, we’ve looked at turning points from last year. The first major one was on May 8th, when they won the series finale against the Los Angeles Angels, then swept the Seattle Mariners.
From May 8th until May 25th, the Jays went 9-7, but were swept at the hands of the Rays in a three game series. Their 52nd game of the season was particularly brutal, falling 13-0 to drop their record to 25-27, seven games back of the New York Yankees for the division lead.
Following May 28th’s game, the team, as a whole, was slashing .244/.317/.372. Their 47 home runs were the fifth-fewest in the big leagues, and their 94 wRC+ was tied for the 12th-lowest in Major League Baseball.
Their starting pitching wasn’t much better, posting a 4.31 ERA (sixth-worst) and 4.69 FIP (fifth-worst) in 284 innings pitched. Moreover, their starters gave up 53 home runs, which ranked tied for the second most following May 28th’s games.
At the very least, their relief pitching looked solid, posting a 3.57 ERA (11th-best) and a 3.61 FIP (eighth-best) in 206.2 innings pitched, with a league high 27.8 K%. Remember how their bullpen was one of the worst after 52 games in 2024? Well, a big reason for their success in 2025 was because of a much-improved bullpen.
They split the first two games against the Texas Rangers in Arlington in their next series, but the second major turning point came on May 28th. After a bullpen day saw the Blue Jays surrender one hit through the first eight innings, Bichette broke through with a two-run home run in the top of the ninth.
The Jays won that game, which kick-started a 13-3 stretch. Then after some .500 baseball, the Blue Jays began their first 10+ game win streak since 2016. May 28th saw the Jays sit a season-high eight games behind the division leaders, but with a four-game sweep of the New York Yankees during the Canada Day series, they overtook the division lead and never relinquished it.
Three position players had a serious decline in 2024: George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Bichette. Well, when the season ended, Kirk was slashing .282/.348/.421 with 15 home runs in 506 plate appearances (116 wRC+, 4.7 fWAR).
Bichette was slashing .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs in 628 plate appearances (134 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR). As for Springer, he took a dip in the fountain of youth, slashing .309/.399/.560 with 32 home runs in 586 plate appearances, good for a 166 wRC+ and 5.2 fWAR.
Something clicked for their offence when Bichette hit that two-run in late May. At this point, you just have to hope they figure it out again.

To tread water (for now): The 2026 Blue Jays

One thing neither the 2024 or 2025 team had to deal with like the 2026 Jays have to is injury luck. They came into Spring Training with eight starters signed, but still needed to sign a veteran stop gap in Patrick Corbin, who has exceeded expectations. He even outdueled Paul Skenes on Saturday! Two months into the season, they have a bullpen day every five games. 
Alejandro Kirk and Addison Barger have missed most of the season, while George Springer and Nathan Lukes spent time on the injured list. There’s only so much a team can do when they’ve had the injury luck that they Jays have done.
On top of having an identical record after 52 games to what they did last season, the two Blue Jays team’s numbers after 52 games are similar. Over their 52 games this season, the team is slashing .243/.307/.374, compared to a .244/.317/.372 slash line in 2025 and a 235/.314/.376 slash line in 2024. 
Their 93 wRC+ is slightly worse than last season and ranks as the eight-worst in the big leagues. The Jays have also hit 47 home runs, the 10th fewest in the big leagues. They had 46 in 2024 and 47 in 2025. Moreover, they’ve struck out 19.1% of the time, the second-lowest K% this season. Good at-bats was key to their success in 2025, but they are chasing outside the zone far more often.
While the 2026 Blue Jays’ offence lags behind the 2024 Blue Jays’ offence at the 52-game mark, neither the 2024 or 2025 team has had the pitching success like the 2026 Blue Jays have had.
Spearheaded by Trey Yesavage, Dylan Cease, and Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays’ starters have a 3.80 ERA (ninth) and 3.60 FIP (fifth). Their K% of 23.8% ranks ninth-best for any rotation, while they have a 7.8 BB% early this season, the sixth-best in the league. Imagine a healthy Shane Bieber and a trade deadline acquisition.
They aren’t sacrificing quality when turning to the bullpen either. Blue Jays’ relievers have a 3.85 ERA, 14th-best, and a 3.46 FIP, eighth-best. With a 25.9 K%, Blue Jays’ relievers have the second highest strikeout rate for any bullpen. The only real concern with their bullpen is the number of long-balls they gave up, 22. That is tied for 11th-most.
After 52 games, the 2026 Blue Jays were in better shape than the 2024 and 2025 Blue Jays were at with the same number of games played. Pitching has been terrific, and with Kirk, Barger, and Lukes returning in the near future, one can presume that their offence will get going soon.
Right now, the Blue Jays are treading water, neither sinking or swimming, but they have to start swimming soon.
Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, Oilersnation, and FlamesNation. She can be followed on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.
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