Shane Bieber is without a doubt a major question for the Blue Jays’ offseason plans.

The 30-year-old holds a $16 million player option for 2026, and he’s coming off his final start of the postseason — going 5 1/3 innings, allowing just one run, and striking out three. Bieber was the big splash Toronto made at the trade deadline, and in his seven regular-season starts, he posted a 4–2 record with a 3.57 ERA over 40 1/3 innings. Ironically, after four postseason starts, he has finished with that same 3.57 ERA.

With the postseason entering the home stretch, the question becomes: where does Bieber rank in the Blue Jays’ pecking order of pending free agents? With Bo Bichette headlining that group, Bieber likely stands as the second-most important name on the list — even with his player option still in play.

Depending on how the offseason unfolds, Bieber could certainly choose to test the market, and pundits across the board believe he is going to opt out. The Blue Jays already have José Berríos and Kevin Gausman under contract for 2026, and the emergence of Trey Yesavage — especially his dominant postseason — further complicates the rotation picture.

There’s also Eric Lauer, who was used in both starting and relief roles and has positioned himself as a potential rotation piece, especially considering the team opened 2025 without a left-handed starter. Outside of this group, there is also Bowden Francis, who hasn’t pitched since June 14th due to a shoulder issue, as well as some other prospects in the pipeline, such as Adam Macko and Ricky Tiedemann.

With Bieber, you’re not getting a high-velocity arm — his fastball tops out around 93 mph, occasionally touching 94 – but he makes up for it with his offspeed pitches and the ability to command the strike zone. He makes his living with feel and movement: his slider, changeup, and knuckle curve are all legitimate weapons, with the cutter adding another wrinkle. However, as we saw in Game 7 of the ALCS against Seattle, if the slider isn’t generating whiffs and instead leaks into the zone, it becomes vulnerable to damage. In terms of the free passes, he commands the zone and authored a stellar 1.6 BB/9 this year through his seven starts.

The biggest concern, of course, is health.

Bieber returned from rehabbing Tommy John surgery this year and has a shaky track record when it comes to his health, dating back to his days with the Guardians. If the Blue Jays reinforce their pitching with another premium starter and perhaps a multi-inning relief option, it would allow them to insulate against potential inconsistency from Bieber. His workload has been managed — he maxed out at 88 pitches — and the team will need to continue to find the right rhythm to help him finish off hitters more efficiently.

The decision to bring Bieber back will take careful consideration. The starting pitching market isn’t expected to be as deep as in past years, even with names like Dylan Cease and Framber Valdez available. Bieber could test free agency, but given the Blue Jays’ postseason run, there is a clear incentive to keep this core together should he decide to opt out.