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How Shane Bieber plans to approach ‘daunting’ free-agent market this winter
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Photo credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
Thomas Hall
Sep 26, 2026, 18:45 EDT
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TORONTO — In the final days of a two-year, $26 million contract — which included a $16 million player option that he exercised to return to the Blue Jays this season — Shane Bieber is set to reach free agency for the second time in his career five days after the World Series ends.
The only difference this time around is he’ll be 100 per cent healthy, and not several months removed from undergoing Tommy John surgery, with several more months of recovery still ahead of him.
Even after an injury-filled 2026 campaign, of which Bieber opened the season on the injured list with right forearm inflammation — a byproduct of pitching 40.1 innings in the regular season after returning from TJ, then another 18.2 frames in last year’s post-season, including an extra-innings relief outing in Game 7 of the World Series — and will finish it on the IL due to a shoulder injury, he’s looking forward to, finally, enjoying a regular off-season.
But as the 31-year-old soon-to-be free agent begins to allow himself to ponder what comes next after ’26, there’s no denying the road ahead is filled with uncertainty.
“I think it’s kind of daunting,” Bieber said of his upcoming free agency. “I haven’t thought too much about it. I have no idea what my market’s going to be like.”
For a pitcher in Bieber’s situation, coming off multiple IL stints — and as a former TJ pitcher — with only 55.2 innings under his belt this year, he’s likely in a tough spot market-wise. Much of the industry will have good reason to be hesitant about his durability moving forward, despite his pre-surgery track record as a previous AL Cy Young winner with 200 innings reached not once, but twice (2019, 2022).
When asked to summarize this season’s performance as a whole, the veteran right-hander described it as “weird, hot and cold, and frustrating.” He didn’t make his first start with the Blue Jays until June 23, throwing just 3.2 innings as the team continued to build him up at a snail’s pace to protect against further injury.
Bieber’s first four starts were met with mixed results. Then, as he rediscovered his stride in July, holding opponents to one run over 13 combined innings with nine strikeouts and two walks between two starts, he got “space jammed,” as he called it, during his shortest career start against the Washington Nationals on July 28, lasting only two-thirds of an inning after issuing a career-worst six walks and allowing four runs (all earned) on just one hit.
After that weird clunker, Bieber did his best to “throw that one in the trash” and managed to bounce back with a promising four-start stretch, during which he posted a 2.59 ERA and 3.63 FIP with 22 strikeouts and only six walks across 24.1 innings. But then, out of nowhere, five days after his Aug. 20 start in Tampa Bay, he landed on the IL with teres major inflammation in his right shoulder.
Had the Blue Jays wound up making the playoffs, the tentative plan involved having the 6-foot-3 hurler return as a multi-inning reliever. He would’ve been scheduled for a live BP session this week, then an abbreviated rehab start of sorts, considering the minor-league season had already concluded.
“Unfortunately, we just kind of fell short of the playoffs,” Bieber said. “My plan was to make it back for the playoffs.”
If not for his abrupt shoulder ailment, the pending free agent would’ve had the opportunity to prove to interested suitors that he’s 100 per cent healthy before this winter. But time just wasn’t on his side. As such, he’ll hit the open market with an underwhelming 4.37 ERA and 5.15 FIP in 11 starts, further clouding his market.
There’s also the expiration of MLB’s current CBA and whether front offices will aim to act more aggressively than others before that date arrives in December — giving organizations less than a month to sign players once free agency opens this fall.
“I think everybody’s going to approach it differently, but ultimately it’s up to the teams,” Bieber said. “Are they all going to be aggressive before the CBA expires? Are they all going to wait? Is it going to be 50-50? I have no clue.”
Between all the unknowns, Bieber will do his best to block out as much noise as possible. He’ll leave the important handlings to his agent. After a long, challenging season, it’s time for baseball to take a back seat to being a husband and a father — he and his wife are expecting their second child in 2027 — with his schedule due to open up considerably after this weekend.
“To put my mind at ease, I’m just going to focus on taking care of my family and returning a favour,” he said. “They’ve always been so supportive, especially throughout the season. I think the least that we can do as players is go back and return the favour [to them].”
When it becomes time to think about baseball again, Bieber already knows what he’ll be looking for in the team he ultimately signs with, whether that’s back with the Blue Jays or another organization. Being on a playoff contender will be atop his priority list, and second will be how well the franchise treats its players and their families.
He’s been treated with a high standard thus far with the two teams he’s played for in nine professional seasons, and he doesn’t plan on settling.
“I want to win. I want to be around good people,” Bieber said of the boxes he’ll be looking to check. “I definitely found that with the entire Toronto organization. I had that with Cleveland as well.
“I’ve been blessed to have been a part of two fantastic organizations — in terms of their ability to win, their priorities, the way they take care of families and treat people.”
Bieber was sold on the Blue Jays organization during last season’s run to the World Series, which helped him decide quickly about opting into his ’26 player option just a few days after their heartbreaking Game 7 defeat to the Dodgers. He didn’t want to be anywhere else.
Even to this day, that sentiment hasn’t changed. The veteran starter would love to run it back a second straight off-season, but also admitted that the decision is out of his hands.
“I’ve been tested over the last few years, and I just want to continue to stay resilient,” Bieber said. “I know there’s so much that I can do and I can offer, and would love for that to be here.”
Landing a long-term deal, to this point, has remained out of Bieber’s grasp throughout his career. When he became a free agent two years ago, he signed back with the Guardians very quickly on his current two-year deal, and his chances of inking a multi-year contract this winter appear rather unlikely due to his injury concerns.
Betting on himself via another one-year, prove-it deal could very much be what’s in store this off-season. There should be ample interest, but where and what it materializes into are the questions left to be answered in the months to come.

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