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Blue Jays should steer clear of Framber Valdez in free agency
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Photo credit: © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
Josh Goldberg
Nov 12, 2025, 09:00 ESTUpdated: Nov 12, 2025, 08:13 EST
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Veteran left-hander Framber Valdez is one of the premier starting pitchers on the free-agent market this offseason. The Toronto Blue Jays are expected to be active in fortifying their starting rotation, but Valdez shouldn’t be at the top of their wish list.
With Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer also hitting the open market, the Blue Jays have at least one hole in their rotation to fill behind Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, and José Berríos heading into the 2026 season.
On the surface, Valdez looks deserving of the large term and dollar amount he’s likely to receive in free agency. The two-time All-Star ranks sixth among all starting pitchers in fWAR (20.6), fifth in innings pitched (973), tied for first in wins, and 10th in total strikeouts (951) since the start of the 2020 season as a member of the Houston Astros.
However, Valdez has a few somewhat concerning trends in his profile that have taken shape over the past two seasons. His BB/9 has climbed each of the past two seasons, from 2.59 in 2023 to 2.81 in 2024 and 3.19 this past season. Valdez has consistently outperformed his expected ERA throughout his career, but has had issues avoiding hard contact at times.
He finished the 2025 campaign in the 10th percentile in average exit velocity (90.8 mph) and in the ninth percentile in hard-hit rate (46.3%). The second half of the season was not particularly kind to Valdez, as he posted a 5.20 ERA, 3.85 xERA, 7.86 K/9, and 3.42 BB/9 in 12 starts.
Valdez has always been an extreme ground-ball pitcher, which could, in theory, be a seamless fit with the Blue Jays’ excellent defensive play in the infield, led by Andrés Giménez and Ernie Clement.
Valdez is a solid, consistent pitcher. There’s no disputing that. He has a reputation as a fiery competitor on the mound, which can sometimes hinder his performance. The most notable occurrence came in a start against the New York Yankees, where it appeared that Valdez deliberately crossed up Astros catcher Cesar Salazar. He was apologetic after the incident, but it left a mark on some clubs. One MLB scout reportedly told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that the organization he worked for crossed Valdez off their list in free agency following the incident.
Signing free-agent pitchers is inherently risky. Teams are almost always paying for past performance, hoping for a couple more quality seasons before either injury or a decline in performance comes into play.
Valdez’s days as one of the 15 or 20 best starting pitchers appear to be behind him. The Blue Jays should look elsewhere this winter if they’re serious about making an impact addition or two to their starting rotation for 2026 and beyond.

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