Toronto Blue Jays top prospect Arjun Nimmala has put forth a solid season with the high-A Vancouver Canadians so far. The 19-year-old has amassed 11 home runs and is slashing .240/.324/.420 playing against people a few years older than him — numbers that could serve as a strong bargaining chip for a team expected to buy at the trade deadline.

Whether or not the Jays would consider moving their top prospect depends on a number of factors. One of the biggest is their long-term plan for major league shortstop Bo Bichette.

With Bichette potentially hanging around long term, there won’t be a clear path for Nimmala to earn an MLB promotion anytime soon as long as Bichette remains on the roster, although that is still a couple of years down the line at a minimum. A contract extension for Bichette could be in the works, but that remains purely speculative at this point.

This situation leaves the team with a couple of options ahead of the trade deadline regarding what to do with Nimmala. Regardless of what they choose, the decision should give fans a clearer picture of what the future of the Jays’ shortstop position might look like.

Including a 19-year-old prospect who has already shown flashes of brilliance at the high-A level would significantly increase the return on any trade deadline deal. Starting pitching is a clear need, and a package involving Nimmala could headline an offer for a pitcher like Minnesota Twins starter Joe Ryan. There has also been some rumour mill traction with the Jays and Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller, although there is not a lot of smoke here.

A move like this would also signal that the team is making a serious push to extend Bichette. While Josh Kasevich — the club’s sixth-best prospect according to MLB.com — also plays shortstop, he’s been sidelined since the end of May due to injury, and Nimmala’s upside appears to be higher.

However, dealing Nimmala without locking down Bichette long-term would put the team in a tricky position, although the club does have Andres Gimenez lurking if needed. They’d risk losing their star shortstop in free agency without having their top prospect available to replace him in the near future and would put a lot of chips on Gimenez moving forward.

The only scenario where that might make sense is if the Jays are fully all-in on this season — which is possible — but it feels safer to retain at least one of Bichette or Nimmala for the long-term.

While it’s possible the Jays keep Nimmala and still extend Bichette, retaining Nimmala could also indicate that the team plans to let Bichette walk in free agency. It’s not a clear-cut signal either way, but it’s certainly a plausible interpretation.

This option also raises a new question: do the Jays keep Nimmala in high-A for the rest of the season, or promote him to New Hampshire?

Nimmala played 99 games between the FCL Blue Jays and single-A Dunedin before earning his promotion to Vancouver, so the Jays may choose to follow that pattern of giving him extended time at each level. If he remains on the West Coast through the rest of the year, that could suggest the team is in no rush — potentially signaling confidence in extending Bichette or the confience in passing over the reigns to Gimenez until the top prospect is ready for the big leagues.

However, if Nimmala is promoted to double-A soon, it could signal the start of a faster track toward the majors — perhaps pointing to a future without Bichette.

With all of these options on the table, the Jays’ decision regarding Nimmala could become one of the most important of the trade deadline. The right move — and the right return, if a deal is made — could be the difference between a successful or disastrous 2025 season.

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