Approaching the final month of the 2026 season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., somehow, still hasn’t gone deep at Rogers Centre this year — and he’s running out of time to end that homerless drought.

As the Toronto Blue Jays return home this week, slated to begin a six-game homestand with three each against the Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners following Monday’s off-day, it marks yet another glorious opportunity for Guerrero to put this season-long storyline to rest. His home-road splits have been well documented (18 points separate his wRC+ scores) at this point, as have his overall disappointing results.

Through 117 games, the 27-year-old superstar first baseman remains stuck on seven home runs — he’s homered once over his last 27 contests — as well as 46 RBIs, a .262/.335/.353 slash line and a 95 wRC+ (100 league average). Not including last year’s sensational post-season performance, it’s been exactly one year plus a week since his last regular-season home run in Toronto — Aug. 17, 2025, versus the Texas Rangers.

But only 15 home games remain for Guerrero to end that skid. There have been a small handful of near-misses over the last few months, only for all of them to either fall short on the warning track or come within a few feet of clearing the outfield wall.

Despite those close calls, it’s worth noting that Vladdy currently owns a season-low hard-hit rate (37 per cent) and average bat speed (75.9 m.p.h.) this month. So, under the surface, it doesn’t appear that No. 27 is nearing any sort of late-season breakout.

What he does have working in his favour, though, is that he’ll soon face a Mariners pitching staff that has allowed the most home runs in the majors (38) since the start of August. As a result, they enter this week’s ALCS rematch ranked 30th in team ERA (6.18), FIP (5.31) and fWAR (-0.8).

Kansas City’s pitchers, meanwhile, sit amongst the middle of the pack in both home runs allowed (21) and HR/9 (1.03) this month. But they’ve struggled to keep runs off the board in other ways, considering they’re positioned 25th in team ERA (4.49), 22nd in FIP (4.47) and tied for 23rd in fWAR (1.2).

Still, with only nine home games in September, Guerrero can certainly ease the pressure weighing on his shoulders by taking advantage of this week’s favourable matchups.

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