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Blue Jays: Why Ranger Suarez should not be the top offseason rotation target
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Photo credit: © Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Ben Wrixon
Nov 23, 2025, 11:00 ESTUpdated: Nov 23, 2025, 08:46 EST
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The Toronto Blue Jays should think twice about offering Ranger Suárez a big contract in their hunt for a frontline starting pitcher this offseason. 
What Suárez does well is run prevention. He worked to a 3.20 ERA (137 ERA+) and 3.21 FIP in 26 starts for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2025. Unfortunately, the process through which he produced those results doesn’t inspire confidence.
The southpaw gave up 154 hits across a career-high 157 1/3 innings pitched last year with a pedestrian 151 strikeouts. He allowed just 14 home runs, but that was with an outlier 8.8% HR-to-flyball rate well below his career average. His groundball rate dropping to a career-worst 46.8% doesn’t bode well for the future, either. 
Another red flag is that Suárez’s primary pitch is losing velocity. He averaged just 90.1 mph on his sinker in 2025, which sat at 92.8 mph as recently as 2023. Batters responded to this decline by hitting .310 with an average exit velocity of 90.8 mph off the pitch. 
All this data paints the picture of a pitcher who is becoming easier to hit — and someone who could have a hard time living up to a lucrative long-term contract. 
It’s not hard to envision a scenario where Suárez gets paid like an ace yet quickly becomes a pitcher whose ERA sits around 4.00. The lefty also comes with durability concerns, having never made a full 30 starts in a season or reached the 160-inning plateau. 
However, the bigger issue is that Suárez isn’t the kind of pitcher the Blue Jays need, even when he’s at his best.
It’s power pitchers who miss bats that swing postseason games and series when the adrenaline is running high. The team needs someone who can rack up strikeouts atop its rotation, which, except for Trey Yesavage, is a pitch-to-contact group. 
Kevin Gausman is a strikeout-per-inning pitcher at this stage of his career. He was rock solid every time he took the ball in the playoffs, yet often ended up on the losing end of a pitcher’s duel because he didn’t quite miss enough bats. Shane Bieber had his moments, but was too hittable to completely shut down a lineup. 
Michael King and Dylan Cease are both better free agent options than Suárez for the Blue Jays, who is a left-handed version of what the organization already has. King owns a career 10.2 K/9; Cease throws 97 mph and has struck out at least 214 hitters in five straight seasons. 
All of the top-of-the-rotation starters available are likely to cost more than $25 million per season — whoever the Blue Jays pay this winter needs to be a true difference maker for 2026 and beyond. Ranger Suárez is not the guy they should invest in.
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