The Blue Jays will try to bounce back from a series loss against the Brewers with a matchup against another Central Division-leading team in the Cleveland Guardians (43-23). Coming off a series split with the Reds, the team is clinging to a 5.5-game advantage over the upstart Kansas City Royals. Cleveland has won six of their last ten games and have a 22-15 record on the road this season.

Friday, June 14th, 7:07 EST: Logan Allen (6-3, 5.57 ERA) vs Kevin Gausman (5-4, 4.00 ERA)

Saturday, June 15th, 3:07 EST: Carlos Carrasco (2-5, 5.50 ERA) vs TBD

Sunday, June 16th, 1:37 EST: Ben Lively (6-2, 2.59 ERA) vs José Berríos (5-5, 2.93 ERA)

The Guardians rank among the middle of the pack as far as starting pitching production goes, coming in at 18th in the Major Leagues in team ERA (4.23). After Shane Bieber’s early season injury, it’s been the same five guys toeing the slab for the team all season long.

Tanner Bibee has been the most effective starting pitcher this year, leading the team with 14 starts, 75.1 innings pitched, and a 3.52 FIP. The Blue Jays will not see Bibee in this series, instead doing battle with Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco, and Ben Lively.

Allen has made 13 starts for the club, somehow navigating around a 5.57 ERA (and 5.50 FIP) to win six games for the Guardians this year. Opponents are hitting .293 off of the southpaw, as the Blue Jays will look to get on him early and often on Friday night.

After a three-year stint with the Mets, longtime starter Carlos Carrasco is back with the club after spending 12 seasons in Cleveland from 2009 to 2020. The 37-year-old is unsurprisingly without the strikeout stuff he had in the past, punching out just 7.00 per nine innings this year. He will be making his 12th start on Saturday afternoon.

The Guardians’ next-best starter after Bibee, Ben Lively, will be on the mound on Sunday afternoon. Lively has engineered a 6-2 record and 2.59 ERA on the season, but his lack of strikeouts and 3.87 FIP indicate that regression may be in store.

The Guardians sport the number one bullpen in all of baseball by a considerable margin. In fact, the difference between their team ERA (2.33) and the second-place Dodgers’ bullpen ERA (2.98), is similar to the Dodgers and the 11th-ranked Astros (3.64). The team’s elite relief number vaulted the total team ERA to 5th in baseball, despite their middle-of-the-pack starting rotation.

Just about everything has worked swimmingly for this relief core in 2024, with six regular relievers with an 0.92 WHIP or below. Closer Emmanuel Clase has been up to his usual wizardry, converting 20 of 23 saves, second most in the Major Leagues. His 0.84 ERA and 0.68 WHIP perhaps make him the very best closer in all of baseball.

The next two most dominant relievers have been right-handers Hunter Gaddis (1.72, 0.80) and Cade Smith (1.78, 0.92). The latter, an Abbotsford, BC native, leads the bullpen with 40 strikeouts against just 7 walks, good for a 5.71 K-to-BB ratio. Fellow righthander Nick Sandlin (2.54, 0.81) has also had a tremendous season in relief. As far as lefthanders go, Tim Herrin (1.00, 0.89) and Sam Hentges (2.70, 0.60) have also been nearly unhittable.

It is highly unlikely that the Cleveland bullpen will be able to keep up this level of dominance, but it seems quite clear that this is the best in baseball this year. The Blue Jays will have to make sure to get to the team’s starting pitching so they limit having to face this unit while trailing late in games.

The Guardians rank 10th in the Major Leagues in team OPS (.718), and they’ve been largely carried by four players.

Leading the charge have been the big bats of Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor. Ramirez has had another excellent season, leading the team with 18 home runs as well as 11 stolen bases. The Toronto-born Naylor is right behind him in homers with 17, and has raised his walk rate to a career-best 9.7%.

Leadoff man Steven Kwan is in the midst of his best season as a pro, hitting a whopping .380 so far this year but not qualifying for the batting title, as he’s only played in 40 games due to a hamstring injury. Kwan’s strikeout rate is down and his power is way up, with an isolated power of .153 after posting marks of .101 and .102 in his first two seasons in the big leagues.

The biggest surprise story from this team this year has been the emergence of catcher/first basemen/outfielder David Fry. Through 48 games, Fry leads the team in OPS with a whopping 1.017 mark, thanks to eight home runs and a team-best 26 walks. That patience gives him a 15.7% walk rate, much higher than he’s managed in any minor league season. It’s of course unlikely that he’ll be able to keep these numbers up, but he should at least be a dependable starter for the team moving forward.

After those four players, the numbers tail off quite a bit. Andres Gimenez has struggled to the tune of a .678 OPS, and Josh’s brother Bo Naylor has had a hard time getting his footing in his first full Major League season, sporting a pedestrian .535 OPS. Perhaps as disappointing has been top prospect Kyle Manzardo, who was acquired in the Aaron Civale trade at last year’s trade deadline. Manzardo was lauded for his power in the minor leagues, but he has yet to go deep so far in 28 games.

This Guardians team has unquestionably been led by their dominant bullpen so far in 2024, making the first five or six innings of games crucial for the Blue Jays offence to score runs this weekend. Paying extra attention to the quartet of sluggers that have paced the team’s offence will also be key to ensuring a series win.