It’s not impossible that I’ve created a format that’s more complex than I’d intended, putting me in the position to clarify some notes in tedious ways.

For example, if we’re honest, some guys are basically org guys. Of course, there are org guys who make themselves prospects (witness Davis Schneider), but in reality, a lot of guys look like maybe something’s going on (like Rafael Lantigua last year?), and they never actually become regular major leaguers.

The same applies, particularly with relief pitchers. Looking in from the outside, it’s hard to say, “This is a guy we should be watching,” as opposed to a guy with ordinary ability having a nice few weeks of success. But per my format, if a reliever of at least some note was below average for 10 innings in April and hard to touch for 11 innings in May (or vice versa), he’s up for consideration for this column.

I want to mainly mention guys who’ve been publicly identified as prospects by observers who are more connected than I — if they are healthy and there’s anything to report. But you’ll see other names that might not be so familiar.

Also, up and down can be a little fuzzy. I’ll explain with the first name below.

And that name is Addison Barger. If I was being very literal and wooden I’d have to say May was a down for him, but really, he was fine — it’s just that he was so crazy good in April that it LOOKS like slipping. He hit .351 with a 1.146 OPS in April and cooled down some to record an .810 OPS in May. Now that is near the lower end of what you want from a Top 5 prospect overall but even the best prospects cycle through hotter and cooler cycles.

Spencer Horwitz had a similar cycle with a .937 OPS in April and .834 in May. For both, I’m reluctant to label a fine month as down. I can give a qualified Down, though, to Orelvis Martinez. Beginning in the last few days of April he went on a 10-for-74 slide. Doug Fox notes that teams have adjusted and are pitching him differently (I won’t steal his content further) but he has a history of adjusting in time. The sample is small but he seemed to pull out of it at the end of the month going on a 9/26 run. Something else I belatedly noticed once tipped off this week – one of the things that is very likely a big factor in Martinez not being on the precipice of promotion (besides defensive reps) is that he has been quite not-good vs RHP this year, and hasn’t been more than ordinary against them since 2021 in Dunedin.

Shortstop Leo Jiminez is getting the big UP from this team. His OPS in April was .767, respectable but not what you want from a top 10 prospect. In May he’s racked it up to .926. He’s also getting over the fence at a higher rate than in previous seasons. Nathan Lukes, not technically a prospect, is UP in May with a .925 OPS on the month. Will Robertson continues to trend Down, with a .712 OPS on the month and .663 since April 10. Then there’s Steward Berroa. By most any measure, he’s an org guy. In fact, he was a minor league FA last winter before eventually resigning with the Jays so not coveted. But he has an .860 OPS in May and is on pace to steal something like 75 bases this year so give the man an Up.

Much less to write about on the pitching side. All the healthy starters are journeymen, and among relievers “steady” is the best description for most. That said, I’ll give an Up to Hagen Danner and to Hayden Juenger. Danner has allowed just 2 ER since April 20 over 13 IP (i.38 ERA) through the end of May, and Juenger struggled with too many baserunners in April leading to a 7.15 ERA but has been much better in May (2.92).

Top 10 prospect Alan Rhoden cooled some in May, enough for a provisional Down, but wasn’t really disappointing, likely more just been adjusted to some. Josh Kasevich slumped to a .689 OPS in May so that rates a Down. On the other hand, 1B Rainer Nunez had his best month at AA, posting an .832 OPS to ear the Up. Another name to recognize is org guy (or is he?) Riley Tirotta. The mostly third baseman (who has reps at all the corners and even a few at 2B) got promoted to AAA a week or so ago After Palmegiano went on the IL, but he was sporting a 902 OPS in AA after he came off rehab. I’m going to give him an Up based on his improvement (so far) over last season.

Better pitching notes here than at AAA. Top (healthy) pitching prospect Adam Macko is up from 2023, and really only had one bad outing in April and May – on May 2. Since that one, in four starts through the end of the month, his ERA was 2.57 with 31 strikeouts and four walks in 21 IP so he’s trending up overall. CJ Van Eck whom you may recall got absolutely pounded in his last April start sailed through May to the tune of a 1.88 ERA. I have to get an Up for that.

Devereaux Harrison regained his footing after getting knocked around a couple of times in April. I’ll give the provisional Up but the walks are a concern. Lefty reliever Jimmy Burnette is Up as he was near untouchable in May after a solid April. Looking in from the outside you’d think a promotion to AAA was in order. And speaking of untouchable, Eric Pardinho‘s six-week stretch of not having allowed an earned run rolls along. Big up for 11 innings of three-hit ball in May with 16k. One mild caveat: he has yet to pitch on back-to-back days (Burnette has only done so once) but he also hasn’t gone over two innings at a time so there’s no sign they want to stretch him out at all.

We return now to the mystery that is Dasan Brown. After a couple of years of struggling to make enough contact to support his other tools, he broke out in 2022. Things were looking up. Then he gave literally every scrap of that progress back in ’23 making ’22 look like an outlier. Well not so fast. His line in 2024 (so far)  looks very much like it did in ’22, and that’s after a pretty ordinary (but not bad) April. For May he has an .868 OPS and has put himself back on the radar – UP.

Jace Borofen is Down for May, dropping almost 100 points of OPS compared to April. Third baseman and (likely) org player (he was 25 in A ball ya know) Ryan McCarty was down a good bit in May after a hot April, but he got bumped to NH over the weekend after Tirotta and fellow org guy Michael Turconi were needed in Buffalo.

We’re at the beginning of earned promotion season (as opposed to player movement based on organization needs) and the first big move goes to Connor O’Halloran. I can’t really give him an up or down because, well, there’s been nothing but steady good work for him this season, but I wanted to acknowledge his move up to Vancouver.

Speaking of promotions though, I’ve got my eye on Ryan Jennings. He’s another guy who’s been too consistent to file as trending up or down (other than improving his walk rate in May over April) but if/when Macko or Van Eck move up from New Hampshire there’s a pretty good chance that opens the door for Jennings to move up.

I will give an Up, though, to newcomer Chris McElvain. He got bumped around a bit in late April but he has a 1.75 ERA for May (albeit the walks are too high). Conversely, catching a down is Rafael Sanchez who got wrecked twice in May leading to an unsightly 8.31 ERA.  In the bullpen, an Up is due to Anders Tollhurst. He lost time to injury in ’22 and ’23 which led to poor results last year but he’s building momentum now. April was good, May’s been even better giving up a single run in the month for a 0.77 ERA.

You’re probably aware that it’s a rare thing for a player taken in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft to become even a productive major leaguer, let alone a star. What’s way more rare, I’m not even sure if it’s ever happened, is for a player taken in the minor league phase to stick in the majors. So temper your expectations when I tell you I have an Up for Alexis Hernandez. To be fair, his overall line looks much like his previous work in the Red Sox organization but props for turning a .452 April OPS into a 1.099 for May.

A provisional Up to maybe encourage Manuel Beltre. The org has been very slow and patient with him and a one-month sample is far too small to really conclude anything, but his .759 OPS for May is his best month since the complex league. Jean Joseph gets an up for a .793 OPS in May, he’s got talent and maybe this will be an enduring trend. On the other hand, a Down month for Victor Arias. He rocked a .978 OPS in April, only to crash down to just .652 in May.

Juaron Watts-Brown took a few games to get settled in, but in his last four starts, he has a 2.00 ERA with 30 strikeouts over those 18 innings. That’s good for an Up, but he needs to work on the walks (as so many talented young pitchers do). Last month, I praised Kai Peterson, this month, he gets a big Down. After getting waxed in three consecutive appearances, Peterson collapsed to a 10.24 ERA in May.

The Florida Coast League Jays only started play in May so any comps have to refer back to last year, typically in the Dominican. The main name that draws my attention is catcher Luis Meza, the top international signing for the Jays in 2022. In ’22 and ’23 he was just lost at the plate. So it’s more than a little notable that he’s got a .344 BA right now. It’s almost all singles, but it’s an Up. Another recognizable name, if much less heralded, is Gregori Cano (the guy who’s related to Robinson Cano) who hit just .184 last year but is off to a .314 (BA start in 2024. Give him an Up.

There’s not really an up on the pitching sign because the best starter so far, Christopher Castro, was good in a tiny sample last year. I’ll keep an eye on him.

More opinions in a month.