Of all the players on the Toronto Blue Jays 40-man roster, there may not be a bigger wild card than Yariel Rodríguez. After his first season in the major leagues, we’re a little closer to discovering the type of pitcher he is, but his role remains undefined on the team.

As of now, he heads into Spring Training battling for a spot in the starting rotation but the Blue Jays could transition him over to the bullpen depending on how the competition pans out. So where do the Blue Jays go with Rodríguez, and what is the best path to success for him?

Let’s just call 2024 what it actually was; an elongated Spring Training outing for Rodríguez. Since he hadn’t pitched professionally in over a year since representing his native Cuba in the World Baseball Classic, Toronto’s coaching staff limited his pitch count and Rodríguez never tossed more than 90 pitches in a single start.

When he was on, Rodríguez looked electric on the mound. His two most impressive starts of the season came in July when he posted back-to-back six strikeout games of six innings or more. Opponents only hit .132 off Rodríguez in July, the third lowest opponent’s batting average in a single month for a Blue Jays starter. He sputtered in August but wrapped up his first professional career with a 4.47 ERA in 21 starts. The biggest area for improvement for Rodríguez in 2025 is controlling the strike zone. His 10.9% walk rate was the sixth-highest in MLB for starting pitchers with 80 or more innings pitched.

While Bowden Francis surpassed Rodríguez on the starting pitcher depth chart, the fifth starter spot is still Rodríguez’s to lose. With a year of service time under his belt and a familiarity with the Major Leagues and the Blue Jays organization, he should be able to improve upon his numbers from 2024.

Rodríguez is also incentivized because his contract has built-in bonuses for innings pitched. He’ll receive an additional $100,000 if he surpasses 130, 140, 150, 160 and 170 innings pitched. He crossed the 130 threshold earlier in his career pitching in Cuba, so 130+ innings are attainable.

The biggest upside for Rodríguez lies in the starting rotation. If he can trim his walk rate down and start pitching into the fifth and sixth innings rather than only the fourth inning, that would be huge to helping stabilize the Blue Jays’ starting rotation.

On the other hand, there’s an intriguing case to be made to flip Rodríguez back into a reliever (for the 2025 season, at least). He has a big arm with big strikeout potential, something the Blue Jays desperately need in the back end of their bullpen. If the Blue Jays and Rodríguez worked on paring down his repertoire to two pitches instead of the five pitches he uses as a starting pitcher, there’s some potential for him to see an even bigger spike in his strikeout numbers. Rodríguez’s best pitches are his slider and sinker, so if he abandons his four-seamer and his curveball (his two least effective pitches), that might also help trim down his walk numbers as well. It’s also common for starters to see an uptick in velocity when they move to the bullpen.

The way the Blue Jays structured Rodríguez’s contract is fascinating, because not only does he have incentives for innings pitched, he also has bonuses for games finished. He can also earn an extra $50,000 for games finished at the 20, 30, 40 and 50 threshold in a single year over the next two seasons.

Things are still up in the air as to what’s happening with Jordan Romano, whether he could be non-tendered and whether the Blue Jays entertain bringing him back beyond 2025. But if the team moves on from Romano, there’s a path here for Rodríguez to become the new closer for the Blue Jays.

Financially, it also makes more sense for the Blue Jays to stash Rodríguez in the bullpen next season. With a base salary of $5 million, you’d be hard-pressed to find a reliever at that AAV in free agency with Rodríguez’s upside. Even though they already have five starting pitchers, the Blue Jays are reportedly seeking to improve their starting rotation. Adding any new starting pitcher would push Rodríguez down the depth chart anyway, and with no option years remaining, Rodríguez has to remain on the roster in some capacity.

It’s tempting to see what Rodríguez might do in a full season as a reliever, armed with his electric slider and sinker. Depending on how the Blue Jays tackle this offseason, he’s the most malleable pitcher on the roster.

The Blue Jays will give Rodríguez more rope to work with in 2025, with higher pitch counts and a bigger innings cap. But if they land a depth starting pitcher or make a splashing front-end starter signing, that would seal Rodríguez’s fate as a reliever for the 2025 season, which might be the better play, anyway.