When the Toronto Blue Jays signed future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer last winter, the hope was that he’d make more than the nine starts the Texas Rangers received in 2024. While that may still happen for this franchise, the 40-year-old hurler has yet to complete more than three innings thus far, and it is anyone’s guess as to when he’ll add to that total.

Scherzer’s right thumb injury — impacting him since near the end of the 2023 season — has created quite a predicament for the club’s starting rotation. First up was Easton Lucas, who excelled in his first two career big-league starts while occupying the fifth starter’s role but came crashing back down to earth over his most recent two.

The Blue Jays could’ve given Lucas a fifth start, one final chance to work through his recent woes. Instead, they did the opposite and optioned him to triple-A Buffalo prior to Monday’s series opener against the Houston Astros, leaving them with just four starters — which is how they plan to move forward across this current turn through the rotation.

Thanks to off-days on Thursday and next Monday, Toronto won’t need a fifth starter until May 3 versus the Cleveland Guardians, allowing them to roll with a four-man rotation that includes José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Bowden Francis. But they aren’t planning to skip Scherzer’s vacated spot more than once. They don’t want to sacrifice too many extra rest days for this veteran staff.

Making this move is management’s way of kicking the can down the road as they attempt to locate a viable fifth starter, and they’ve bought themselves a little over a week by leveraging what would’ve been valuable recovery time for their other four starters.

That may benefit this team in the short term. However, when it’s time to use five starters again, finding a suitable replacement at the back end of the rotation will likely be just as challenging as it is right now. But let’s see what options might be available.

If Toronto feels there aren’t any viable options at triple-A, the simplest solution will likely involve deploying a bullpen game during the three-game series versus Cleveland. Of course, that wouldn’t be ideal — none of this is, honestly. That being said, the Blue Jays’ bullpen already possesses the necessary pieces to patch nine innings together.

Schultz, who tied the major league record for the most strikeouts (eight) by a reliever in his big-league debut, would probably be responsible for the bulk of the innings after he provided 4.1 scoreless frames of relief on Sunday against Seattle.

Offering multiple innings out of the ‘pen is perfectly suited for Schultz, who had been doing exactly that for the Bisons this season before being called up to the majors, as he logged at least three innings in two of his four relief appearances — striking out six in one of those outings.

As someone who struck out less than 30 per cent of the batters he faced at triple-A last season, chances are the 27-year-old won’t continue to record close to 10 punchouts every time he takes the mound for the Blue Jays. The opposition will eventually figure him out, just as they did with Lucas.

Still, part of what contributed to Schultz’s dominant debut was the command of his four-seamer that induced half of his eight strikeouts and controlled the upper quadrant of the strike zone by averaging 18 inches of induced vertical break, making it tough for opposing batters to create contact against its late-riding action.

If Schultz can consistently locate his fastball as well as he did in his first appearance, he’d likely fare just fine against a Guardians lineup that has produced a minus-17 run value versus pitches in the upper third of the strike zone this season, tied for third-worst in the majors — ahead of the Blue Jays (-18) and Royals (-22).

But it still might make sense to use an opener in front of him, possibly left-hander Brendon Little, to face a window that includes lefties Steven Kwan and Kyle Manzardo. Those plans, however, will undoubtedly be dictated by the club’s bullpen usage leading up to that potential bullpen game.

If the Blue Jays ultimately decide to follow this path, it could also buy them time until Lucas completes his required 15 days in the minors before becoming eligible to be recalled to the majors — a date that falls on May 6, which marks the beginning of a six-game road trip through Los Angeles (Angles) and Seattle.

On the other side of that coin, if a bullpen game against the Guardians isn’t feasible, the Blue Jays would have to dip into their thin triple-A pitching depth even further — an outcome that’d likely necessitate Jake Bloss’ call-up.

That’s surely something this organization would prefer to avoid, especially considering the 23-year-old’s rough start to the season, which resulted in 19 runs allowed (13 earned) over his first three starts with Buffalo. Adding to the right-hander’s woes, he issued more walks (nine) than strikeouts (seven) while surrendering 19 hits over 11.1 innings, including a trio of home runs.

Bloss did, of course, enjoy a much-needed bounce-back performance in his latest start on Sunday versus the Syracuse Mets, striking out seven — a career-high with the Blue Jays organization — over 4.2 innings of two-run ball, with both runs being unearned. He still needed 91 pitches to reach the finish line, though, losing some of his effectiveness during his second and third trips through the order.

Ideally, the Blue Jays would like to see him address that concern before he makes his first big-league start with the franchise. At the same time, with few viable alternatives at that level, they may be forced into that decision sooner than they would like.

Until Lucas is eligible to return to the majors, the only other options to choose from include veteran Eric Lauer, who owns an ERA close to six through his first four starts, and Lazaro Estrada — Toronto’s No. 25 prospect per MLB Pipeline — whose ERA has soared to 16.50 across his first three career triple-A starts.

It’s slim pickings for now, but the size of that crop should increase this summer as the likes of Alek Manoah, Adam Macko, Adam Kloffenstein and Ricky Tiedemann return from injury.

Or, at least, that would be the plan.

In a worst-case-scenario hypothetical, the Blue Jays would likely turn their focus to the waiver wire upon exhausting every internal option, where they’d hope to catch lightning in the bottle by churning through as many recycled arms as needed until a more stable solution presented itself.

Among the problems with that plan is that there usually aren’t many claimable arms on the market this early into the season. The one exception right now is Cleveland’s Triston McKenzie, who was designated for assignment earlier this week after struggling to a whopping 11.12 ERA in four relief appearances.

The 27-year-old’s shine as a former top pitching prospect has long since faded away, and he wouldn’t offer much solace to Toronto at this point, considering he’s out of options and isn’t stretched out as a starter. Still, the right-hander might be worth stashing in Buffalo — that is, if he were claimed by this organization and then proceeded to pass through waivers upon being placed on them a second time.

When things unravelled for the Blue Jays’ bullpen last season, management grabbed hold of as many warm bodies as they could to replace the depth it lost. While they’d rather not repeat that fate on the starting pitching front, especially while hoping to remain in playoff contention, injuries and poor development may ultimately lead to crossing that line.