It’s been a long road to recovery for Daulton Varsho. After undergoing shoulder surgery late last year, the Blue Jays outfielder is entering the final phase of his rehab this week. He’ll soon enter extended spring training games, and if all goes well, he’ll start some triple-A games before returning to the Blue Jays.

But the team will soon find itself in a roster crunch. With six outfielders on the roster and two of them locked in for certain (Anthony Santander and George Springer), any one of Davis Schneider, Myles Straw, Nathan Lukes or Alan Roden could find themselves on the outside looking in.

Fortunately, all four players have options remaining, so the Blue Jays won’t need to risk exposing these outfielders to waivers, but if all goes well with Varsho’s rehab assignment, the team will have a decision to make about which player will be sent down to the minor leagues to make way for Varsho.

There’s no question the organization loves Davis Schneider, but his .067/.333/.067 slash line speaks for itself. Schneider occupies the spot as a lefty killer off the bench, but he has one sole hit in 17 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season. Against righties, Schneider has a .000/.250/.000 slash line in only four plate appearances.

These are miniscule sample sizes, but when it comes down to splitting hairs over which outfielder to keep on the roster, intangibles carry little weight here. Schneider needs to tap into his second-half 2023 self, otherwise he may be back in Buffalo within a few weeks.

The outfield and infield versatility makes Schneider a Swiss Army knife in John Schneider’s toolbox, but the Blue Jays need a little more offense from their 25th and 26th men on the roster. That’s why it’s more than likely that Schneider is the first man to go upon Varsho’s return.

As we saw in 2023, the hit tool is where Schneider excels and what can establish himself as an everyday big leaguer, but the Blue Jays haven’t seen that consistently since May 2024. Schneider’s plate discipline is still there, but he needs to tap into his extra base power to keep a foothold on his roster spot, and some regular playing time in Buffalo might do some good for him.

I think enough time has passed for most fans to at least feel indifferent about the trade with the Cleveland Guardians for Myles Straw and international bonus spool spending money. But yesterday’s game proved how Straw can be a difference-maker at the bottom of the Blue Jays’ lineup.

So far, Straw has started six games in centre field for the Blue Jays, and while his range may not be the greatest, Straw rarely commits errors. He has four errors in 553 career games in the outfield. His wheels alone make him an asset, and he may become the next iteration of designated pinch runner, a la Bradley Zimmer from a few years ago.

The only thing working against Straw is that his skill set will be a little redundant once Varsho is back on the roster. Varsho is the superior defender, can hit for more power, and hits from the other side of the plate. Straw could play one of the corner outfield spots in a pinch, but he’s been a primary centre fielder since 2020. His salary might also help keep him on the roster, as paying a triple-A player earning over $6 million is not ideal, but there is less of an argument for Straw to continue developing versus some other names on the bubble, and he can sit on the bench and be called upon when necessary.

Nathan Lukes had quite the Jekyll and Hyde game yesterday, making a costly pickoff play at third base, but then redeeming himself with a ninth inning game-saving catch. When players only get limited playing time, they can’t be a liability. Unfortunately for Lukes, he’s been on the receiving end of a few potential game-changing plays on the negative side.

There was also that ill-advised slide into second base against the Red Sox last week, which cost the Blue Jays as well. Two baserunning gaffes in less than a week doesn’t bode well for someone like Lukes who is trying to carve out a spot on this roster.

He still has one option left, so he might be demoted once Varsho is reactivated. In my estimation, Lukes is the second-most likely candidate to find himself off the 26-man roster in a few weeks. Sure, he’s one of the few left-handed hitters on this list, but the fundamentals need to be sound to warrant a roster spot.

One other thing Lukes has playing in his favour is his plate discipline, so at least he can reach base via a walk. Both he and Schneider are the two most patient hitters on the Blue Jays bench.

Alan Roden has started 12 of 16 games for the Blue Jays so far this season and has played in 15 of 16 games. Even as a rookie, he’s been given plenty of rope to carve out a space for himself on this Blue Jays roster. While the .250/.326/.300 slash line doesn’t jump off the page, he hasn’t looked over-matched in at-bats and has pretty decent bat-to-ball skills.

Having another lefty in the lineup is a benefit to the Blue Jays and could complement Varsho in centre field upon his return. With a potential Santander-Varsho-Roden outfield alignment, that should open up the DH spot for George Springer, which at least right now would give the Blue Jays their best combination of an offensive and defensive outfield.

Roden hasn’t tapped into his extra base hit power yet, but the Blue Jays would love to see him convert those singles into doubles like he has the last three seasons in the minor leagues. There’s an outside chance the Blue Jays will move Roden off the roster once Varsho is reactivated, but I think Roden’s job is the safest among the group of outfielders here.