When you don’t win the final game of the season, there’s always room for improvement. Although the Blue Jays came painfully close to capturing a World Series title last year, in the words of former Blue Jay Chris Bassitt (not mine), they failed.

In order to return to the Fall Classic, it will once again take some Blue Jays having career years, others having bounce-back campaigns, and a bit of luck just for an opportunity to sniff a championship. If the planets all align, maybe magic can happen twice.

Despite some guys not having their best years in 2025, the Blue Jays had their fifth-highest regular-season win total and a World Series run that won’t soon be forgotten.

Depending on which projection model you look at, some are a little gun-shy on the Blue Jays’ ability to repeat as American League champs, which is understandable, given the plethora of question marks on the team. Aside from a crystal ball, the only window we have into the future is projection models like ZiPS and Steamer.

To determine who the Blue Jays’ biggest bounce-back candidates are, I averaged each player’s ZiPS and Steamer projections, minus their fWAR (FanGraphs WAR) from 2025. An important caveat: Shane Bieber and Trey Yesavage had the highest projection improvements year-over-year, but with Bieber’s return date uncertain, I left him off the list.

And with Yesavage, he’s technically not a bounce-back candidate because he’s a rookie and he posted 0.4 fWAR in three regular-season games in 2025. How could he not improve? With those qualifiers out of the way, these are Blue Jays who should be back to their career norms in 2026.

This was well before Max Scherzer impressed in his Spring Training debut last weekend, firing four innings of no-hit ball against the Philadelphia Phillies. By all accounts, he’s clear of the thumb issues that caused him to miss three months on the IL last year, and Scherzer has a clean bill of health for Opening Day.

The 41-year-old is now two full seasons removed from his last 150+ inning campaign in 2023, but it’s not like the Blue Jays are expecting Mad Max to contribute 30 starts this year. Somewhere in the 15-20 starts and 100-120 innings threshold feels like a modest goal for the elder statesman in the Blue Jays’ rotation.

The equation here seems pretty simple: if Scherzer is healthy, he’s a contributor, and just over a half-win replacement compared to last year at least moves the needle for the talent pool of this starting five. The team may need to be nimble to work all these arms into the fold, but Scherzer has proven he can handle the workload.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will probably be the first one to tell you he was disappointed with his regular-season totals in 2025. Coming off the heels of his $500 million, 15-year contract extension, there was heat on Vladdy to perform like a franchise staple once the ink on that contract dried.

He had a good, yet not a great, 2025 regular season, but then went beast mode in the playoffs, silencing any detractors about his performance from April to September. By winning the ALCS MVP and having one of the best playoff performances in Blue Jays history, those regular-season numbers were null and void.

As a soon-to-be 27-year-old heading into the prime years of his career, ZiPS and Steamer both project Guerrero to take a step forward in 2026, with almost a full win improvement over his 3.9 fWAR campaign in 2025. While the home run numbers weren’t among his career best last year, Guerrero’s bat-to-ball skills were still among the best in the league.

It’s easy to see another 30+ homer season in Vladdy’s near future, but that’s not the immediate barometer for his success. With his 137 wRC+ last year and a relatively low percentage of extra-base hits compared to his career norms, Guerrero proved he can evolve into a selective and patient hitter when he’s not being given pitches to hit.

This projection has the possibility of flying out the window in a few weeks because Leo Jimenez is out of options and fighting for his life on the roster this Spring Training. But with one fewer shortstop on the Blue Jays’ depth chart in the form of Bo Bichette, could 2026 finally be Jimenez’s opportunity to capitalize?

ZiPS especially thinks Jimenez will be a darling in 2026, with 1.2 forecasted fWAR, while Steamer isn’t as bullish at 0.2 fWAR. Either way, this is a “put up or shut up” year for the once-touted Blue Jays prospect. The Blue Jays have given Jimenez ample runway these last few years, but he hasn’t quite stuck on the big league roster.

With Andres Gimenez likely to get most of the reps at shortstop, Jimenez might be relegated to backup SS duty. If he can hit, he will stick; otherwise, the Panamanian might find himself left off the 26-man roster before the club flies north for Opening Day.

Year one of Jeff Hoffman’s $33 million contract didn’t pan out as planned. He had a roller-coaster regular season, was nails for most of the playoffs, but most people will likely remember him giving up the Game 7 game-tying home run in the ninth inning to Miguel Rojas.

Largely due to his spike in home runs surrendered, Hoffman’s regular season was erratic, as he gave up more round-trippers in 2025 than in the previous three seasons combined. At times, his role as Toronto’s closer came into question, but there was never really a genuine threat to usurp him from the role.

Projection models forecast Hoffman’s ERA to decrease by over one full earned run in 2026, along with a HR/9 rate that’s around the 1.00 benchmark compared to a career-high 1.99 HR/9 last year with the Blue Jays.

The difference between FanGraphs’ FIP-based pitcher WAR is the big difference here, as Hoffman had -0.4 fWAR compared to 0.4 Baseball-Reference WAR (bWAR). Hoffman got punished more on the fWAR side because of the number of homers he gave up, despite a good portion of them being solo shots.

Regardless of what metric you prefer, 0.8 WAR is nowhere near an elite season for a reliever, as it’s more in line with what Braydon Fisher provided the Blue Jays with 0.8 fWAR in 52 games last year. Because we’re working off ZiPS and Steamer projections through FanGraphs, that’s the model we’re beholden to here, even though it’s not perfect.

There were a few fluky underlying numbers with Hoffman last year, so it’s easy to see him righting the ship, but a 1.1 fWAR swing from the negative into the positive would be an enormous boon to Toronto’s bullpen.

Speaking of the aforementioned gilded glove infielder, Gimenez arguably has the most room for improvement on the roster. Injuries limited Gimenez to only 101 regular-season games last year, which opened the door for Ernie Clement to establish himself as the club’s de facto utility infielder.

But by virtue of merely staying healthy, with his calibre of defensive ability, Gimenez will contribute value to the Blue Jays. If he chips in anything offensively, that’s a bonus, but he’s been a net negative at the plate the last few years. His days as a hitter with a wRC+ north of 100 are probably in the rear-view mirror, but Gimenez still provides tremendous value on the other side of the ball.

Where Gimenez has always been able to shine is with his glove, and commanding full-time shortstop for the first time in his career, getting a full season of the former Platinum Glove winner and three-time Gold Glove winner only stands to benefit the pitching staff as well.

Off The Roster is Toronto sports. Hosted by Cabbie Richards, Lindsay Dunn, and Dan Riccio, this is the go-to morning conversation for everything happening in the 6ix – Hockey, Baseball, Basketball and everything in between. From breakout performances and questionable trades to throwback jerseys, viral moments, and the stories fans are actually talking about—it’s smart, sharp, and never scripted. Live weekday mornings on the Nation Network YouTube channel and available wherever you stream podcasts, the show delivers real opinions, real chemistry, and real Toronto energy. Missed an episode? Catch up anytime. Off The Roster—The new sound of the 6ix.