It&#8217;s never easy to be patient during the MLB offseason, and it&#8217;s even more difficult when you have to watch a rival team improve its roster.
That&#8217;s been the case for the Blue Jays as they&#8217;ve seen teams like the Yankees and Red Sox make significant moves to improve their clubs. Boston made a needle-moving deal with the White Sox last week when they acquired Garrett Crochet as the new ace of their up-and-coming staff. As for the Yankees, they&#8217;ve been pretty busy despite losing Juan Soto to the crosstown Mets. They inked Max Fried to an 8-year, $218 million contract, traded for arguably the best closer in the game in Devin Williams from the Brewers, and then on Tuesday <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/yankees-acquire-cody-bellinger-from-cubs-in-salary-dump-trade">they acquired former NL MVP Cody Bellinger in a trade with the Chicago Cubs.</a>
While I understand the frustration from Blue Jays fans, and I&#8217;m more than willing to admit I&#8217;ve felt plenty of my own, I&#8217;d like to remind you (and yours truly) that there is no sense in getting upset whenever a rival team adds a new player. To illustrate my point, I&#8217;d like to talk about the latest move that the Yankees made when they picked up Bellinger.
<h2>Blue Jays miss out on Bellinger (and that&#8217;s not a bad thing)</h2>
As has been the case with several big-name free agents, the Blue Jays were tied to him as well, and I understand that &#8220;missing out&#8221; on another player, especially to the Yankees, is a little maddening.
That said, I&#8217;m not that bothered by missing out on Bellinger, and I feel that way for several reasons.
To begin with, there was a reason that the Cubs were shopping the two-time All-Star, and not just because their outfield had gotten crowded after their big trade to acquire Kyle Tucker. They were interested in getting Bellinger&#8217;s contract off the books and it&#8217;s hard to see Tuesday&#8217;s trade as anything other than a salary dump. The Cubs sent five million dollars along with Bellinger and got a modest return in the form of Cody Poteet, a 30-year-old SP/RP with just 24 MLB appearances on his resume. Bellinger is set to earn $27.5 million in 2024, and $25 million in 2025, assuming he picks up his player option at the end of next season. He wasn&#8217;t terrible in 2024 by any means, finishing with an OPS+ of 111 and a 2.2 bWAR (also 2.2 fWAR), but he was a far cry from the Silver Slugger he was in 2023 before signing a three-year deal with the Cubs again last winter when he was worth 4.4 bWAR/fWAR.
I know some Blue Jays fans would argue with me that I shouldn&#8217;t care how much ownership spends on the roster, and I&#8217;d generally agree with the sentiment. However, there have been more than enough <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-believed-to-have-avoided-cbt-but-financial-flexibility-may-remain-tight/">reports</a> that Ross Atkins and the front office are working with some sort of payroll limitations this winter, even if they were in on the Juan Soto sweepstakes with bids in the range of $700 million or more. Ownership might have been willing to play in a different stratosphere for the likes of future Hall of Famers like Soto, or last year&#8217;s flirtation with Shohei Ohtani, but it doesn&#8217;t appear they&#8217;ll spend the same way without them. With that in mind, would it be worth bringing in a player like Bellinger if he would have eaten up the majority of the remaining payroll space? I&#8217;m not so sure.
<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/blue-jays">According to Fangraphs roster resource</a>, the Blue Jays have a projected payroll of roughly $228 million for the 2025 season. If they choose to keep that number below the first luxury tax line of around $241 million, there really isn&#8217;t much left to work with and Bellinger would have taken them well into the second tier depending on what they sent back to the Cubs. I feel like I&#8217;m optimistic in thinking that the second luxury tax threshold at $261 million would be the maximum that Atkins and his team are allowed to spend, giving them around $30 million to work with. If that&#8217;s the case, and I believe it is, I&#8217;d rather see the Blue Jays continue to pursue some of the best free agents still available on the market.
If we were talking about the same Cody Bellinger who was coming off of his 2019 NL MVP season or even the production he posted in 2023, then I think it&#8217;s a different story. However, the 29-year-old showed some scary signs of regression pretty much across the board last year. He went from slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs, 97 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and an OPS+ of 139, down to .265/.325/.426 with 18 home runs, 78 RBI, 9 stolen bases, and an OPS+ of 111. When you look at the metrics available <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cody-bellinger-641355?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb">at a place like Baseball Savant</a>, the numbers are even more concerning. Simply put, Bellinger just wasn&#8217;t hitting the ball with much authority last season, much like the struggles he faced from 2020-2022 when he battled shoulder injuries.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Guess which one‘s Bellinger and which one’s Alex Verdugo <a href="https://t.co/VEHMEU1vas">https://t.co/VEHMEU1vas</a> <a href="https://t.co/8XGF9XvNwH">pic.twitter.com/8XGF9XvNwH</a>
&mdash; Bennett (@Bennett_F7) <a href="https://twitter.com/Bennett_F7/status/1869139387809927505?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 17, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Would Bellinger make the Blue Jays better today? Of course, I&#8217;m not going to pretend that wouldn&#8217;t be the case, but we can&#8217;t forget the opportunity cost that comes with making one move over another.
I sincerely doubt that the Blue Jays would have traded for Bellinger and then continued to pursue sluggers like Teoscar Hernández or Anthony Santander, who are both still available. I&#8217;m certainly of the belief that they need at least two bats, but I also recognize that the rotation and the bullpen still need to be improved upon as well. One upside with Bellinger is that he only has two years left on his contract, whereas Hernandez will <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/is-teoscar-hernandezs-asking-price-finally-right-for-the-blue-jays">likely require</a> at least three seasons at $20-$25 million, and Santander is seeking at least five years for his next deal. Even still, the Blue Jays desperately need another impact hitter or two in their lineup for 2025, and I&#8217;d much rather see them commit to an extra 1-3 years for Hernandez/Santander than take a gamble that Bellinger will be closer to the 2019/2023 version capable of an elite output.
All that said, I do think it&#8217;s reasonable for a team like the Yankees to take a gamble that Bellinger could rebound again, and I&#8217;ll also concede that it&#8217;s entirely possible that he could thrive in New York with their right-field porch tailored for a lefty swing. A year from now I might be eating my words. However, for the Blue Jays, this was the type of gamble that I don&#8217;t think they could afford to take, especially after acquiring Andrés Giménez from the Guardians and hoping he has an offensive bounce-back of his own. This is a team that badly needs to improve on their tepid offence from a year ago, and I&#8217;m not very confident that Bellinger would have moved the needle nearly enough.
Of course, the biggest key will be whether or not the Blue Jays can bring in a better option. As of this writing, I believe that there are a few available options that fit that description, so for now, I&#8217;m doing my best as a fan to keep things in perspective. Check back with me in a couple of weeks and I may feel different, but for now, missing on Bellinger isn&#8217;t the end of the world and there is still time for this roster to improve before Spring Training rolls around.

It's never easy to be patient during the MLB offseason, and it's even more difficult when you have to watch a rival team improve its roster.

That's been the case for the Blue Jays as they've seen teams like the Yankees and Red Sox make significant moves to improve their clubs. Boston made a needle-moving deal with the White Sox last week when they acquired Garrett Crochet as the new ace of their up-and-coming staff. As for the Yankees, they've been pretty busy despite losing Juan Soto to the crosstown Mets. They inked Max Fried to an 8-year, $218 million contract, traded for arguably the best closer in the game in Devin Williams from the Brewers, and then on Tuesday <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/yankees-acquire-cody-bellinger-from-cubs-in-salary-dump-trade">they acquired former NL MVP Cody Bellinger in a trade with the Chicago Cubs.</a>

While I understand the frustration from Blue Jays fans, and I'm more than willing to admit I've felt plenty of my own, I'd like to remind you (and yours truly) that there is no sense in getting upset whenever a rival team adds a new player. To illustrate my point, I'd like to talk about the latest move that the Yankees made when they picked up Bellinger.
<h2>Blue Jays miss out on Bellinger (and that's not a bad thing)</h2>
As has been the case with several big-name free agents, the Blue Jays were tied to him as well, and I understand that "missing out" on another player, especially to the Yankees, is a little maddening.

That said, I'm not that bothered by missing out on Bellinger, and I feel that way for several reasons.

To begin with, there was a reason that the Cubs were shopping the two-time All-Star, and not just because their outfield had gotten crowded after their big trade to acquire Kyle Tucker. They were interested in getting Bellinger's contract off the books and it's hard to see Tuesday's trade as anything other than a salary dump. The Cubs sent five million dollars along with Bellinger and got a modest return in the form of Cody Poteet, a 30-year-old SP/RP with just 24 MLB appearances on his resume. Bellinger is set to earn $27.5 million in 2024, and $25 million in 2025, assuming he picks up his player option at the end of next season. He wasn't terrible in 2024 by any means, finishing with an OPS+ of 111 and a 2.2 bWAR (also 2.2 fWAR), but he was a far cry from the Silver Slugger he was in 2023 before signing a three-year deal with the Cubs again last winter when he was worth 4.4 bWAR/fWAR.

I know some Blue Jays fans would argue with me that I shouldn't care how much ownership spends on the roster, and I'd generally agree with the sentiment. However, there have been more than enough <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-believed-to-have-avoided-cbt-but-financial-flexibility-may-remain-tight/">reports</a> that Ross Atkins and the front office are working with some sort of payroll limitations this winter, even if they were in on the Juan Soto sweepstakes with bids in the range of $700 million or more. Ownership might have been willing to play in a different stratosphere for the likes of future Hall of Famers like Soto, or last year's flirtation with Shohei Ohtani, but it doesn't appear they'll spend the same way without them. With that in mind, would it be worth bringing in a player like Bellinger if he would have eaten up the majority of the remaining payroll space? I'm not so sure.

<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/blue-jays">According to Fangraphs roster resource</a>, the Blue Jays have a projected payroll of roughly $228 million for the 2025 season. If they choose to keep that number below the first luxury tax line of around $241 million, there really isn't much left to work with and Bellinger would have taken them well into the second tier depending on what they sent back to the Cubs. I feel like I'm optimistic in thinking that the second luxury tax threshold at $261 million would be the maximum that Atkins and his team are allowed to spend, giving them around $30 million to work with. If that's the case, and I believe it is, I'd rather see the Blue Jays continue to pursue some of the best free agents still available on the market.

If we were talking about the same Cody Bellinger who was coming off of his 2019 NL MVP season or even the production he posted in 2023, then I think it's a different story. However, the 29-year-old showed some scary signs of regression pretty much across the board last year. He went from slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs, 97 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and an OPS+ of 139, down to .265/.325/.426 with 18 home runs, 78 RBI, 9 stolen bases, and an OPS+ of 111. When you look at the metrics available <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cody-bellinger-641355?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb">at a place like Baseball Savant</a>, the numbers are even more concerning. Simply put, Bellinger just wasn't hitting the ball with much authority last season, much like the struggles he faced from 2020-2022 when he battled shoulder injuries.

https://twitter.com/Bennett_F7/status/1869139387809927505

Would Bellinger make the Blue Jays better today? Of course, I'm not going to pretend that wouldn't be the case, but we can't forget the opportunity cost that comes with making one move over another.

I sincerely doubt that the Blue Jays would have traded for Bellinger and then continued to pursue sluggers like Teoscar Hernández or Anthony Santander, who are both still available. I'm certainly of the belief that they need at least two bats, but I also recognize that the rotation and the bullpen still need to be improved upon as well. One upside with Bellinger is that he only has two years left on his contract, whereas Hernandez will <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/is-teoscar-hernandezs-asking-price-finally-right-for-the-blue-jays">likely require</a> at least three seasons at $20-$25 million, and Santander is seeking at least five years for his next deal. Even still, the Blue Jays desperately need another impact hitter or two in their lineup for 2025, and I'd much rather see them commit to an extra 1-3 years for Hernandez/Santander than take a gamble that Bellinger will be closer to the 2019/2023 version capable of an elite output.

All that said, I do think it's reasonable for a team like the Yankees to take a gamble that Bellinger could rebound again, and I'll also concede that it's entirely possible that he could thrive in New York with their right-field porch tailored for a lefty swing. A year from now I might be eating my words. However, for the Blue Jays, this was the type of gamble that I don't think they could afford to take, especially after acquiring Andrés Giménez from the Guardians and hoping he has an offensive bounce-back of his own. This is a team that badly needs to improve on their tepid offence from a year ago, and I'm not very confident that Bellinger would have moved the needle nearly enough.

Of course, the biggest key will be whether or not the Blue Jays can bring in a better option. As of this writing, I believe that there are a few available options that fit that description, so for now, I'm doing my best as a fan to keep things in perspective. Check back with me in a couple of weeks and I may feel different, but for now, missing on Bellinger isn't the end of the world and there is still time for this roster to improve before Spring Training rolls around.

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