<p>I may be showing my age here, but remember the &#8220;Give like Santa, save like Scrooge&#8221; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vty8-m0JHbY">Canadian Tire Christmas commercials</a>?</p>
<p>With rumours of the Blue Jays interested in Juan Soto, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes, a narrative has emerged painting the club as frivolous spenders, but in actuality, they&#8217;ve pinched their pennies like Ebenezer.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m sure the Blue Jays were interested in all these players, but they have a budget. Not everybody can make it rain like the Yankees, Dodgers or Mets, but as a top-1o payroll team in 2024, the Blue Jays aren&#8217;t acting like it this offseason.</p>
<h2>Blue Jays and their offseason so far</h2>
<p>So far in free agency, they&#8217;ve only spent <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/the-blue-jays-reportedly-sign-yimi-garcia-to-a-two-year-deal">$15 million on right-hander Yimi Garcia </a>and a handful of minor league deals, with several needs they have yet to address on the roster.</p>
<p>The benefit of waiting out the market is those price tags will probably come down, but teams also risk losing out on marquee players. With a more robust free agent crop compared to last winter, the Blue Jays can afford to play the waiting game this offseason.</p>
<p>It appears at least one asking price has come down: former Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernández. The details from <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/corbin-burnes-cody-bellinger-alex-bregman-and-more-rumors">Mark Feinsand&#8217;s latest at MLB.com</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;The Dodgers and Hernández seemed headed for a reunion, but the two sides haven’t been able to reach a deal thus far. That opened the door for other teams – namely the Red Sox and Blue Jays – to jump in on the outfielder, who is seeking a three-year deal in the $22-24 million a year range, per sources.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/20969/teoscar-hernandez">Spotrac projected Hernández&#8217;s value</a> in the three-year/$71.265 million dollar range, which falls in line with Feinsand&#8217;s report of the former Dodger seeking a deal in the $66 million to $72 million range. On Monday, <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/four-outfielders-blue-jays-could-target-to-bring-power-to-lineup/">Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet reported</a> Hernández was in the market for a four-year contract, with Anthony Santander looking for a five-year deal.</p>
<h2>Blue Jays and the potential pursuit of Hernández</h2>
<p>The Blue Jays could vastly improve their outfield production in free agency, and both Hernández and Santander are the two biggest fish left in the pond. Both players come with risk, but after <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/blue-jays-to-sign-or-not-to-sign-teoscar-hernandez-vs-anthony-santander">Veronica Chung weighed the Hernández vs Santander debate</a>, I&#8217;m leaning toward the Teo camp.</p>
<p>Especially if Santander wants a fourth or a fifth year, that contract could look messy by the end (see the George Springer deal, which still has two years left on it by the way). By locking into only three years of Hernández, it gives the Blue Jays an exit plan if things go sideways.</p>
<p>We know the Blue Jays want to be competitive in 2025, but beyond that, there&#8217;s a lot of uncertainty. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette&#8217;s contract statuses loom large over this organization, and the Blue Jays might stare down the barrel of a rebuild as early as 2026 if Bo and Vlad both walk and the front office doesn&#8217;t replace their production.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Burnes favorite? Pair of 3B with fates intertwined? Your questions, answered <a href="https://t.co/CkfIhryWLR">https://t.co/CkfIhryWLR</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) <a href="https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1868860020265304120?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 17, 2024</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>It&#8217;s a cynical way of looking at things, but in the event of a retool or a rebuild, Hernández is the more attractive trade chip, and he&#8217;s also the player with less sunk cost. Given how little money the Blue Jays have on the books in 2026 in beyond, it&#8217;s hard to pin down where Ross Atkins wants to go with this team.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s one big roundabout way of saying Hernández makes more sense in a vacuum than Santander, and at $22 million to $24 million, that&#8217;s palatable for an organization like the Blue Jays who just traded for Andrés Giménez, whose annual salary jumps to $23 million in a few years.</p>
<p>One thing Atkins cautioned against earlier this offseason was adding too many strikeouts to their lineup, but that adding power hitters was &#8220;low-hanging fruit&#8221;. I&#8217;m sorry to tell you, Ross, but power hitters strike out a lot.</p>
<h2>Accepting strikeouts for power</h2>
<p>Unless the Blue Jays want to rank in the bottom third of the league for the second consecutive season in home runs and slugging percentage, they need to sacrifice strikeouts for power. And at a 28.8% strikeout rate in 2024, Hernández&#8217;s K-rate was the sixth-highest among qualified hitters.</p>
<p>But that&#8217;s something the Blue Jays have to live with if they want and hope to rekindle some of that offensive magic that made them one of the best-hitting teams in baseball during those 2021 and 2022 seasons. Oddly enough, years when Hernández and Guerrero were at their best.</p>
<p>If the Blue Jays are only going to sign one more free-agent hitter this offseason (and it feels that way), in my eyes, Hernández looks to be the better option in the short term. Santander puts the bat on the ball more, he&#8217;s a switch hitter and he&#8217;s a few years younger, but all signs point towards a Hernández reunion with the Blue Jays. He rebuilt enough of his value during his pillow contract with the Dodgers this past season that most competitive clubs would be comfortable signing Hernández to a multi-year deal. They may balk at that AAV, but that&#8217;s the cost of doing business in this Juan Soto-led free-agent market.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Quite a moment for Teoscar Hernandez on opening day. Jays fell behind 7-0. This HR on a 98 mph fastball tied the game. <a href="https://t.co/Ekb17s5083">pic.twitter.com/Ekb17s5083</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) <a href="https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/1512607996181893123?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 9, 2022</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>It might sound counterintuitive, but if I&#8217;m the Blue Jays, I might be more comfortable about the proposition of a three-year deal for Hernández over a four or five-year deal for Santander, even a five or six-year deal for someone like Alex Bregman.</p>
<p>Unless the Blue Jays are going to go off the board and sign another outfielder like Jurickson Profar, the most value for the Blue Jays may lie in a reunion with Hernández. But they shouldn&#8217;t wait too long to pounce, otherwise he might just take his talents back to Chavez Ravine.</p>


I may be showing my age here, but remember the "Give like Santa, save like Scrooge" <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vty8-m0JHbY">Canadian Tire Christmas commercials</a>?

With rumours of the Blue Jays interested in Juan Soto, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes, a narrative has emerged painting the club as frivolous spenders, but in actuality, they've pinched their pennies like Ebenezer.

I'm sure the Blue Jays were interested in all these players, but they have a budget. Not everybody can make it rain like the Yankees, Dodgers or Mets, but as a top-1o payroll team in 2024, the Blue Jays aren't acting like it this offseason.
<h2>Blue Jays and their offseason so far</h2>
So far in free agency, they've only spent <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/the-blue-jays-reportedly-sign-yimi-garcia-to-a-two-year-deal">$15 million on right-hander Yimi Garcia </a>and a handful of minor league deals, with several needs they have yet to address on the roster.

The benefit of waiting out the market is those price tags will probably come down, but teams also risk losing out on marquee players. With a more robust free agent crop compared to last winter, the Blue Jays can afford to play the waiting game this offseason.

It appears at least one asking price has come down: former Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernández. The details from <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/corbin-burnes-cody-bellinger-alex-bregman-and-more-rumors">Mark Feinsand's latest at MLB.com</a>:
<blockquote>"The Dodgers and Hernández seemed headed for a reunion, but the two sides haven’t been able to reach a deal thus far. That opened the door for other teams – namely the Red Sox and Blue Jays – to jump in on the outfielder, who is seeking a three-year deal in the $22-24 million a year range, per sources."</blockquote>
<a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/20969/teoscar-hernandez">Spotrac projected Hernández's value</a> in the three-year/$71.265 million dollar range, which falls in line with Feinsand's report of the former Dodger seeking a deal in the $66 million to $72 million range. On Monday, <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/four-outfielders-blue-jays-could-target-to-bring-power-to-lineup/">Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet reported</a> Hernández was in the market for a four-year contract, with Anthony Santander looking for a five-year deal.
<h2>Blue Jays and the potential pursuit of Hernández</h2>
The Blue Jays could vastly improve their outfield production in free agency, and both Hernández and Santander are the two biggest fish left in the pond. Both players come with risk, but after <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/blue-jays-to-sign-or-not-to-sign-teoscar-hernandez-vs-anthony-santander">Veronica Chung weighed the Hernández vs Santander debate</a>, I'm leaning toward the Teo camp.

Especially if Santander wants a fourth or a fifth year, that contract could look messy by the end (see the George Springer deal, which still has two years left on it by the way). By locking into only three years of Hernández, it gives the Blue Jays an exit plan if things go sideways.

We know the Blue Jays want to be competitive in 2025, but beyond that, there's a lot of uncertainty. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette's contract statuses loom large over this organization, and the Blue Jays might stare down the barrel of a rebuild as early as 2026 if Bo and Vlad both walk and the front office doesn't replace their production.

https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1868860020265304120

It's a cynical way of looking at things, but in the event of a retool or a rebuild, Hernández is the more attractive trade chip, and he's also the player with less sunk cost. Given how little money the Blue Jays have on the books in 2026 in beyond, it's hard to pin down where Ross Atkins wants to go with this team.

That's one big roundabout way of saying Hernández makes more sense in a vacuum than Santander, and at $22 million to $24 million, that's palatable for an organization like the Blue Jays who just traded for Andrés Giménez, whose annual salary jumps to $23 million in a few years.

One thing Atkins cautioned against earlier this offseason was adding too many strikeouts to their lineup, but that adding power hitters was "low-hanging fruit". I'm sorry to tell you, Ross, but power hitters strike out a lot.
<h2>Accepting strikeouts for power</h2>
Unless the Blue Jays want to rank in the bottom third of the league for the second consecutive season in home runs and slugging percentage, they need to sacrifice strikeouts for power. And at a 28.8% strikeout rate in 2024, Hernández's K-rate was the sixth-highest among qualified hitters.

But that's something the Blue Jays have to live with if they want and hope to rekindle some of that offensive magic that made them one of the best-hitting teams in baseball during those 2021 and 2022 seasons. Oddly enough, years when Hernández and Guerrero were at their best.

If the Blue Jays are only going to sign one more free-agent hitter this offseason (and it feels that way), in my eyes, Hernández looks to be the better option in the short term. Santander puts the bat on the ball more, he's a switch hitter and he's a few years younger, but all signs point towards a Hernández reunion with the Blue Jays. He rebuilt enough of his value during his pillow contract with the Dodgers this past season that most competitive clubs would be comfortable signing Hernández to a multi-year deal. They may balk at that AAV, but that's the cost of doing business in this Juan Soto-led free-agent market.

https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/1512607996181893123

It might sound counterintuitive, but if I'm the Blue Jays, I might be more comfortable about the proposition of a three-year deal for Hernández over a four or five-year deal for Santander, even a five or six-year deal for someone like Alex Bregman.

Unless the Blue Jays are going to go off the board and sign another outfielder like Jurickson Profar, the most value for the Blue Jays may lie in a reunion with Hernández. But they shouldn't wait too long to pounce, otherwise he might just take his talents back to Chavez Ravine.

Is Teoscar Hernández’s asking price finally right for the Blue Jays?

Former Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos is feeling the same heat as Atkins to start the 2025 season

Overshadowed by offence’s 12-run explosion, José Berríos turns in best performance of 2025 against struggling A’s

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero (27) hits a two run home run against the Athletics during the second inning at Rogers Centre

Recent articles from Ian Hunter

Breaking News