<p>Justin Turner is a fine player and a great ambassador for baseball, highlighted by multiple All-Star appearances, a World Series Championship, and a Roberto Clemente Award. But when it comes to the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays, the 39-year-old is a poor fit.</p>
<p></p>
<p>Let&#8217;s start with Turner&#8217;s defence. In his younger years, JT was a well-above-average third-baseman. He had a +9 DRS and a +6 Outs Above Average during the 2016 season with the Los Angeles Dodgers — not quite Matt Chapman territory, but very strong. But since then, his defence and ability to play third has declined steadily.</p>
<p>During the 2023 season while with the Boston Red Sox, Turner only played 57 innings at third (admittedly, behind Rafael Devers), but managed to put up a -3 DRS and -4 OAA despite those limited innings. With that in mind, it would be optimistic to expect more than the 574 innings JT played at third in 2022 or to expect even MLB-average defence when he does play.</p>
<p>The good news is that JT has played first base and has played it relatively well, to the tune of a +2 DRS and a 0 OAA, but there are caveats. He has only played 527 career innings at first, and the most he has ever played at the position in a given season is the 35 games he started in 2023, good for 289 innings total at the bag. So, while he could play first in 2024 when Vladdy needs a day off of the field or at the designated hitter position, it might be optimistic to see Turner as the primary first-base backup.</p>
<p>And how about RedTurn&#8217;s baserunning? The Blue Jays have had issues in the past with slower runners who &#8220;clogged the bases.&#8221; Alejandro Kirk was in a class of his own in the bottom percentile of baserunners, with a -6 rating, but Vladdy was at seven percent (-3), Brandon Belt was at 21 percent (-1), and George Springer was at 27 percent (-1). Could Turner improve on this aspect of the team? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KM2K7sV-K74&amp;ab_channel=pmw8000">Sadly, no</a>. In 2023, he was in the bottom one percent of baserunners, with a -4 rating.</p>
<p>Some might say that all of the above is irrelevant. Turner was hired for his bat, they <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLlv_aZjHXc&amp;ab_channel=TheFullMontyPython">might argue</a>, and the other parts of his game do not matter. So let&#8217;s talk lumber over leather.</p>
<p>Turner&#8217;s 2023 stats were solid. A .276/.345/.455 slash line with an above-average .179 ISO, 23 home runs and a 114 wRC+. But there are still concerns. His Statcast expected line is a more cromulent .259/.336/.443 (for reference, an average MLB hitter has a line of .247/.320/.411). This would translate to a wRC+ of about 105, which is what Steamer projects for him in 2024 (along with a .261/.333/.414 slash line).</p>
<p>This is also consistent with JT&#8217;s batted ball stats in 2023. His average exit velocity was in the 50th percentile (right around MLB average). His average Hard-Hit Percentage (i.e. balls leaving the bat at more than 95 mph) was in the 36th percentile (i.e. well below average), and his Barrel Percentage (i.e. the percentage of balls he hit squarely &#8220;on the barrel&#8221;) of 5.7 percent was in the bottom quarter of the league. For reference, J.D. Martinez&#8217;s rankings for exit velocity/hard-hit/barrel were 97%/98%/99% and Jorge Soler&#8217;s rankings were 79%/83%/92%. There&#8217;s a strong possibility that Turner could see meaningful regression in 2024.</p>
<p>Ah, but I hear you say that at least Justin is a lefty masher — something the Jays badly need! While it is true that Turner&#8217;s 2023 wRC+ against left-handed pitching was an excellent 142, again, there are caveats. First, 2023 is an outlier. Over his career, JT actually hit right-handed pitchers for a higher wRC+ (128) than he did LHP (125). Even in 2022, his wRC+ against RHP of 129 was substantially better than his 109 against LHP. So again, JT&#8217;s 2023 dominance of LHP may not be replicable.</p>
<p>And it is not clear that hitting LHP is as great an area of concern for the Jays as some think. In 2022, when the Jays were considered one of the better hitting teams in the league (their 118 team wRC+ was second only to the Dodgers&#8217; 119) the Jays hit for a 116 wRC+ against LHP (7th best in baseball). In 2023, despite &#8220;down&#8221; years from many of their best hitters, the Jays hit for a 111 wRC+ (9th best in baseball). Granted, there is room for improvement, but should this be an area of primary focus?</p>
<h2>The bottom line</h2>
<p>The Blue Jays have several needs going into the 2024 season. Among them is an above-average defensive third baseman who can contribute with the bat on a regular basis. At this point in his career, Turner is likely not that. On top of a quality player at the hot corner, Toronto also needs an elite-hitting DH, one who can replace Brandon Belt&#8217;s 138 (!) wRC+ and .236 ISO from 2023. Again, at this point in his career, it appears that Turner is unlikely to perform at that level.</p>
<p>So, as good a player (and a man!) as Turner is, his signing does not appear to be a good fit for the 2024 Blue Jays.</p>
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Justin Turner is a fine player and a great ambassador for baseball, highlighted by multiple All-Star appearances, a World Series Championship, and a Roberto Clemente Award. But when it comes to the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays, the 39-year-old is a poor fit.



Let's start with Turner's defence. In his younger years, JT was a well-above-average third-baseman. He had a +9 DRS and a +6 Outs Above Average during the 2016 season with the Los Angeles Dodgers — not quite Matt Chapman territory, but very strong. But since then, his defence and ability to play third has declined steadily.

During the 2023 season while with the Boston Red Sox, Turner only played 57 innings at third (admittedly, behind Rafael Devers), but managed to put up a -3 DRS and -4 OAA despite those limited innings. With that in mind, it would be optimistic to expect more than the 574 innings JT played at third in 2022 or to expect even MLB-average defence when he does play.

The good news is that JT has played first base and has played it relatively well, to the tune of a +2 DRS and a 0 OAA, but there are caveats. He has only played 527 career innings at first, and the most he has ever played at the position in a given season is the 35 games he started in 2023, good for 289 innings total at the bag. So, while he could play first in 2024 when Vladdy needs a day off of the field or at the designated hitter position, it might be optimistic to see Turner as the primary first-base backup.

And how about RedTurn's baserunning? The Blue Jays have had issues in the past with slower runners who "clogged the bases." Alejandro Kirk was in a class of his own in the bottom percentile of baserunners, with a -6 rating, but Vladdy was at seven percent (-3), Brandon Belt was at 21 percent (-1), and George Springer was at 27 percent (-1). Could Turner improve on this aspect of the team? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KM2K7sV-K74&amp;ab_channel=pmw8000">Sadly, no</a>. In 2023, he was in the bottom one percent of baserunners, with a -4 rating.

Some might say that all of the above is irrelevant. Turner was hired for his bat, they <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLlv_aZjHXc&amp;ab_channel=TheFullMontyPython">might argue</a>, and the other parts of his game do not matter. So let's talk lumber over leather.

Turner's 2023 stats were solid. A .276/.345/.455 slash line with an above-average .179 ISO, 23 home runs and a 114 wRC+. But there are still concerns. His Statcast expected line is a more cromulent .259/.336/.443 (for reference, an average MLB hitter has a line of .247/.320/.411). This would translate to a wRC+ of about 105, which is what Steamer projects for him in 2024 (along with a .261/.333/.414 slash line).

This is also consistent with JT's batted ball stats in 2023. His average exit velocity was in the 50th percentile (right around MLB average). His average Hard-Hit Percentage (i.e. balls leaving the bat at more than 95 mph) was in the 36th percentile (i.e. well below average), and his Barrel Percentage (i.e. the percentage of balls he hit squarely "on the barrel") of 5.7 percent was in the bottom quarter of the league. For reference, J.D. Martinez's rankings for exit velocity/hard-hit/barrel were 97%/98%/99% and Jorge Soler's rankings were 79%/83%/92%. There's a strong possibility that Turner could see meaningful regression in 2024.

Ah, but I hear you say that at least Justin is a lefty masher — something the Jays badly need! While it is true that Turner's 2023 wRC+ against left-handed pitching was an excellent 142, again, there are caveats. First, 2023 is an outlier. Over his career, JT actually hit right-handed pitchers for a higher wRC+ (128) than he did LHP (125). Even in 2022, his wRC+ against RHP of 129 was substantially better than his 109 against LHP. So again, JT's 2023 dominance of LHP may not be replicable.

And it is not clear that hitting LHP is as great an area of concern for the Jays as some think. In 2022, when the Jays were considered one of the better hitting teams in the league (their 118 team wRC+ was second only to the Dodgers' 119) the Jays hit for a 116 wRC+ against LHP (7th best in baseball). In 2023, despite "down" years from many of their best hitters, the Jays hit for a 111 wRC+ (9th best in baseball). Granted, there is room for improvement, but should this be an area of primary focus?
<h2>The bottom line</h2>
The Blue Jays have several needs going into the 2024 season. Among them is an above-average defensive third baseman who can contribute with the bat on a regular basis. At this point in his career, Turner is likely not that. On top of a quality player at the hot corner, Toronto also needs an elite-hitting DH, one who can replace Brandon Belt's 138 (!) wRC+ and .236 ISO from 2023. Again, at this point in his career, it appears that Turner is unlikely to perform at that level.

So, as good a player (and a man!) as Turner is, his signing does not appear to be a good fit for the 2024 Blue Jays.

<hr />

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Why Justin Turner is a poor fit for the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays

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