Despite the bouts of injuries and inconsistent performances, the 2026 Blue Jays are somehow in third place in the AL East. Although it’s a razor-thin lead, they still aren’t all that different from where they were last year. The Blue Jays have an opportunity to build a case for contention; they just need to rack up wins against their division rivals, which they haven’t been successful at so far.

One crucial difference to keep in mind is that the 2025 Blue Jays had a 27-28 record and didn’t record another loss until June 3. Compared to this, the current iteration of the Blue Jays has already recorded 29 losses in May, putting more pressure on themselves early on. Complicating their situation is the bigger picture of the AL East, with the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees clearly dominating with 34 wins in the books as of May 29th.

In 2025, the Yankees recorded 35 wins by May 28 as well, but the Rays, the second-place team, were seven games behind, while the third-place Blue Jays trailed by eight games. The field was more wide-open then, and fast-forward to 2026, Toronto faces a much fiercer competition to stay alive in the division and playoff races.

There are lots of parallels between the 2025 and 2026 seasons. The injury luck skews things a little differently, yet both versions struggled to bank more wins against the AL East foes. The Blue Jays went 29-23 against their AL East opponents from last season, which isn’t a shabby record by any means. Most of their wins came from their games against the Yankees (8-5), the Red Sox (8-5) and the Baltimore Orioles (7-6). They went 6-7 against the Rays, but won just enough to push themselves to the top of the division.

Games against division rivals have been the Blue Jays’ Achilles heel. Even in an incredible season last year, the team’s individual records against each of their rivals look rather precarious. Had the Blue Jays lost a couple more games, their playoff trajectory would have completely changed. It’s one of the reasons they won the division after tying the Yankees, because the head-to-head matchup favoured Toronto.

This season, the Blue Jays are off to a 5-8 start against their AL East rivals. They still haven’t figured out how to beat the Rays (1-5) or the Yankees (2-2), but managed to keep the Red Sox (2-1) at bay. They haven’t faced the Orioles until yesterday, which is precisely why this four-game set looms larger than it should. Both teams are off to sluggish starts, and whoever wins the series is bound to rank third in the division for the time being.

The best-case scenario for the Blue Jays is beating up Baltimore as they used to, way back in 2021, by sweeping or winning the series in a convincing fashion. However, the Orioles shouldn’t be underestimated this time; they are a menacing team with talented hitters that can torment their opponents when they are at their best. And on the Blue Jays’ side, they aren’t quite back to their peak-2025-season-form yet, nor are they fully healthy.

Pursuing realism shouldn’t distract the Blue Jays from winning, especially against their opponents in the division. What hamstrung the Blue Jays at the beginning of the season was their inability to win a series and continue their winning streak. Those missed opportunities have now turned into the deficit they have to make up against more difficult rivals.

The Blue Jays set the tone for optimism with their first-ever win against the Orioles this year on Thursday night. However, their inability to cash in runners on base left no room for error for pitchers. Forcing pitchers to be pristine for a longer period of time never works because they aren’t always going to be perfect. If the Blue Jays can’t figure out how to score more, there will be ramifications down the line. But a win is a win; it gives the team a chance to build its momentum.

On May 28, 2025, the Blue Jays won against the Texas Rangers and started a five-game winning streak. They now have the chance to repeat that success on this road trip. The three remaining games in Baltimore will shape the Blue Jays’ fortunes. If they are truly better than the Orioles, they will scrape wins in whatever way they can.

The path to redemption is far from easy. But if the Blue Jays have the grit and tenacity this year, they will overcome any kind of trials – that’s what good teams do.

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