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With the 20th overall pick, the Blue Jays could select… Brody Brecht
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Photo credit: © Lee Navin/For the Republic - USA Today
Ryley Delaney
Jun 14, 2024, 12:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 22, 2024, 23:24 EDT
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You can never have too many hard-throwing pitchers in the organization.
As of the day this article goes live, the 2024 Major League Baseball draft’s first day will take place in exactly one month. For the second straight season, the Blue Jays will pick 20th and will have an additional pick on day one this season, picking 59th overall. On day two, they’ll pick 95th, 125th, 136th, and 158th.
In total, the Blue Jays will have a signing bonus pool of $8,987,000 for the first 10 rounds where they’ll have 11 picks. After the 10th round, the Blue Jays can sign any draftee to a signing bonus of up to $150,000 without it counting against their bonus pool.
Let’s take a look at a hard-throwing right-handed pitcher.

Brody Brecht’s bio

Brody Brecht, a 6’4”, 235 lb right-handed pitcher and Iowa-native who went undrafted out of high school, before attending the University of Iowa to play baseball alongside football. After a couple of seasons, Brecht decided to focus on pitching and has become a near-lock for a team to select him in the first round.
Since the current regime took over in late 2015, they have made three selections from the University of Iowa. In 2018, they selected pitcher Nick Allgeyer in the 12th-round, with the lefty eventually pitching for the big league team. Another lefty was selected in the 11th-round of the 2021 draft, Trenton Wallace, you can read his Prospect Profile here.
Most recently, the Blue Jays selected first baseman Peyton Williams in the seventh-round of the 2022 draft and is their highest pick from the school. The team’s highest pick from the state is Kellen Sweeney, who was selected with the 69th-overall pick in 2010. Matt Dermody was also selected in 2013 from the University of Iowa.

Brody Brecht’s stats

Brecht has pitched three seasons at the University of Iowa, posting a 3.49 ERA in 178 innings, along with a 35.7 K% and a 17.2 BB%. This past season, the 21-year-old had a 3.33 ERA in 78.1 innings pitched with a 37.2 K% and a 14.2 BB%.
The righty has also played two seasons in summer league, collectively posting a 7.07 ERA in 14 innings pitched. Most recently, he pitched for Chatham in the Cape Cod League in 2023, where he had a 6.14 ERA in 7.1 innings pitched, along with a 35.3 K% and an 11.8 BB%. Pretty much inline with his collegiate totals. 
A common trend throughout his career is a high strikeout rate that comes with many walks, but more in that on the grades section.

Brody Brecht’s stuff

While the walk rate has been an issue for a while now, his fastball and slider are so damn intriguing. According to MLB Pipeline, Brecht’s fastball sits 96-99 mph while touching 101 mph as a starter. 
Not just that, but his report from Pipeline notes “his heater has explosive running action and superior shape to Skenes’ fastball”. Yes, 2023 first overall pick Paul Skenes. However, his command of the pitch isn’t great.
His slider isn’t even his best pitch though, as Pipeline considers his 87-89 mph slider that touches 91 mph his best pitch. It’s noted that it has “plenty of horizontal and vertical action.” On top of that, he throws a splitter that has good tumble when it’s on, but he doesn’t have a great feel for it.
With the lack of command and control on his pitches, there is a reliever risk, which isn’t ideal for a first-round pick. However, once he joins a professional organization, these things can be sorted out.

Brody Brecht’s grades

As always, let’s take a look at his grades from MLB Pipeline.
Tool
Grade
Fastball
70
Slider
70
Splitter
50
Control
40
Overall
50

Will the Blue Jays select Brody Brecht

It’s evident that the organization likes to draft prospects from the University of Iowa, as the team has selected two players from the school the past two seasons.
The last time the Blue Jays selected a college pitcher in the first round was back in 2021, when they selected Gunnar Hoglund with the 19th overall pick in that year’s draft. However, he had a floor of a back-end starter despite needing Tommy John, while Brecht carries a lot of reliever risk.
Still, a fastball is being compared to Paul Skenes, who went first overall in last season’s draft. It’s hard to find that, especially paired with a nasty slider. The question is, are the Jays willing to take that risk?
As always, you can follow me on Twitter @Ryley_L_D.

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