Max Scherzer signing with the #BlueJays is a game-changer, not just for the rotation, but for the team’s entire mindset! Scherzer is a born winner and his presence alone is going to elevate that clubhouse 🔥
With the signing of Max Scherzer, the Toronto Blue Jays may need to carefully manage the rotation’s workload this season
Photo credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 1, 2025, 08:07 EST
The Toronto Blue Jays’ potential starting rotation for the 2025 season now appears to be one of the best in baseball, with the addition of Max Scherzer. The veteran left-hander has reportedly agreed to a one-year deal with the Blue Jays, netting a $15.5 million contract.
The Steamer projections for Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, and Bowden Francis look promising. Francis has the highest estimated ERA of the group at a still-respectable 4.31, which is solid for a fifth starter. Gausman is projected to lead the group with his 2.9 fWAR, 3.89 ERA, and 3.79 FIP while Berríos and Bassitt will both slot in around the 2.0 fWAR mark and sport ERA’s just over 4.00.
The Jays’ biggest challenge is keeping everyone healthy. Scherzer pitched only 43 1/3 innings last season, and a back injury kept him off the mound at multiple points throughout the year. Gausman and Bassitt, at 34 and nearly 36 years old, respectively, each struggled at times during the 2024 campaign. As a result, the Jays implemented a strategy of giving their starters extra rest as the 2024 season neared its end, especially since the club didn’t have much to play for at the time.
They may need to employ this strategy for this upcoming season if they want to keep their rotation intact throughout the year. To do so, however, they’ll have to look beyond just their seemingly complete rotation. To give all five starters an extra day of rest, the team has two options: either they employ a sixth starter, or, as they did last season, rely on bullpen games from time to time.
Diving into the latter first, it becomes significantly more difficult to do should the Jays not re-sign Ryan Yarbrough or sign someone similar to him. The ability to churn through multiple innings as a reliever like Yarbrough did last season was one of the only reasons the team’s bullpen days were as successful as last year.
Yariel Rodriguez would be the best fit for that role as he pitched as a starter last season, albeit under load management.
Depending on how spring training goes, he could also take Francis’ spot as the fifth starter, although the former Brewers prospect has a clear runway to the fifth spot in the rotation after how he finished last year’s campaign. Francis also made some appearances in the bullpen last year for Toronto, so he could fill in here too if needed.
The Jays could hypothetically use one of their prospects such as Jake Bloss to fill in that role as well, but it would likely be more valuable to not disrupt his development as a starter.
With three pitchers that could be used as starters, that means that a sixth starter appears to be the way to go to give everyone else more rest. Alek Manoah could find himself in that race as well once he returns from injury.
A sixth starter would open up more options for these players that the team won’t be able to set in stone until after Spring Training.
What it does mean for certain is that the Jays’ rotation isn’t complete unless you consider all of the variables. Having six good starters is harder than running with five and using bullpen games can always be tricky.
Keep a close eye on this year’s spring training. The pitchers fighting for roster spots have the potential to make or break this season for the team. While the Jays pitching staff may look complete, is any staff complete without good insurance policies?
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