by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
The Los Angeles Dodgers’ betting value in series prices has almost been gobbled up, but there might be an upside in believing they never do anything the easy way.
Up 3-2 in the best-of-seven series, the Dodgers are now a -550 favorite with the Rays coming back at +425 on the World Series odds at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Los Angeles will have its first opportunity to clinch the franchise’s sixth World Series title, and first since 1988, when it takes on Tampa Bay on Tuesday as the designated home team at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.
Since 1985, when the league championship series round switched to a best-of-seven format to match the World Series, teams with a 3-2 lead have won the series 40 of 62 times (64.5 percent). However, since 2016 the team which entered Game 6 facing elimination is 6-3. Those teams are 3-3 in the decisive Game 7.
On the MLB odds for Tuesday, the Dodgers are a -138 favorite at sports betting sites against the +128 underdog Rays with an 8.0-run total. Los Angeles is 6-8 in its last 14 postseason games as a -130 to -150 favorite, and the total has gone OVER seven times with one push. Tampa Bay is 4-6 in its last 10 postseason games as an underdog of +120 to +140 with the total finishing OVER six times.
The Rays are starting their ace, lefthander Blake Snell, in the do-or-done matchup on Tuesday. Snell generated plenty of swing-and-miss while helping the Rays win on October 21. Historically, having a fifth day of rest has benefited Snell. In regular-season play, he has a 2.78 earned-run average on five days’ rest with 0.74 home runs allowed per nine innings, compared to 3.72 and 1.19 HR/9IP on four days’ rest. There should be concern about the Rays’ hitting; their .708 OPS in the World Series is right on par with a .702 in the American League portion of the playoffs. Tampa Bay’s bullpen, particularly righty Nick Anderson, could also be suffering from overwork.
The Dodgers have stated that righthander Tony Gonsolin will pitch as a traditional starter on Tuesday, rather than as an opener. But the Dodgers are only 7-8 when Gonsolin starts in a game where they are favoured, although the UNDER has hit in nine of those 15 matchups with three pushes. Los Angeles would have Walker Buehler, who’s helped them go 16-4 in his last 20 starts when they were the favorite, ready to start in a winner-take-all Game 7 on Wednesday with normal rest. Lefthanded starters Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias would also be fit to help out Los Angeles’s inconsistent bullpen. At the plate, the Dodgers have an .859 OPS in the World Series, building on their .812 through the National League stages of the playoffs.