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2025 MLB Home Run Derby odds, picks: Bettors strongly backing Nationals’ Wood
Washington Nationals left fielder James Wood (29) hits a RBI sacrifice fly against the Chicago Cubs during the third inning at Nationals Park.
Photo credit: Brad Mills-Imagn Images
Greg Warren
Jul 14, 2025, 11:54 EDT
The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby will get underway in Atlanta at 8 p.m. ET on Monday night, and it’s unquestionably one of the most fun events to place a casual wager on.
This year’s field of eight participants is wide open without a runaway favourite like in years past, as we won’t see sluggers like Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Pete Alonso competing at the event.
There was also some late drama leading up to the event, as Ronald Acuna was replaced by Atlanta Braves teammate, Matt Olson, after experiencing some back tightness. Olson, who has crushed 134 home runs since joining the Braves in 2022 (fifth-most in the majors during that span), will obviously be the new hometown favourite.

Home Run Derby Format

First Round: All eight batters hit as many home runs as they can in three minutes or 40 pitches, whichever comes first. At the end of three minutes or 40 pitches, each batter gets an untimed round that goes until they hit three balls that don’t result in a home run. If a batter records a home run longer than 425 feet, he’ll be rewarded with an extra out.
Bracket Round: The top four batters from the first round will advance to the bracket stage. The semifinals and final consist of rounds of two minutes or 27 pitches.

Home Run Derby Stats/Odds

Participant
Barrel %
Hard-hit%
Odds (bet365)
Cal Raleigh
20.3
49.4
+275
Oneil Cruz
22.3
58.0
+300
James Wood
18.5
55.6
+500
Matt Olson
16.5
54.6
+700
Byron Buxton
15.6
55.0
+750
Brent Rooker
14.3
48.3
+1000
Junior Caminero
11.0
47.5
+1200
Jazz Chisholm
18.6
44.7
+1400

Park Factors/Dimensions

The left-handed hitters in the field (Cruz, Wood, Rooker, Chisholm, Olson, and potentially Raleigh, who is a switch-hitter) should have a very slight advantage at Truist Park in Atlanta given the park’s shorter dimensions in right field. However, the outfield wall rises to around 16 feet down the right-field foul pole as opposed to just six feet high down the left-field line.
Truist Park has a home run Statcast Park Factor of 102 (a park factor of 100 is considered neutral) over the past three seasons, which ranks as the 15th-highest in the majors. So, we’re basically looking at an average venue in terms of home run probability.

Weather

It should be an ideal evening for hitting home runs in Atlanta, with warm and clear conditions expected. Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 31 C this evening with light winds at 10 km/h not factoring into the equation.

Home Run Derby Picks

  • James Wood: +500. This particular derby should slightly favour left-handed hitters, so we’re going to back Wood to win it all. The Washington Nationals slugger ranks in the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, 97th percentile in average exit velocity, and 97th percentile in barrel rate this season, making him a strong contender for the derby crown with his natural and easy power. A recent update from BetMGM on Friday listed Wood as its biggest liability, with the slugger accounting for the most amount of tickets (18%) and the most handle (34.4%) at the sportsbook for the event. Interestingly, he still only has the third-shortest odds behind Raleigh and Cruz despite being the preferred participant of the betting public. His odds have shortened to around +350 at some other online sportsbooks leading up to the event, so grab the +500 odds at bet365 before the line moves.
  • Byron Buxton: +750. The Georgia native is finally enjoying a healthy season, and his 21 home runs have helped him earn his second All-Star nod. He hails from rural Georgia and will surely have the backing of the hometown crowd, and he enters this contest on a high after hitting for the cycle on Saturday, which was also his bobblehead day at Target Field. Buxton has long had the skillset to become one of the elite players in baseball, but injuries have severely limited his potential throughout his 11-year MLB career. This seems like the perfect opportunity for him to grab the spotlight and for bettors to pad their pockets at long +750 odds. If you’re looking to back a longshot in this event, Buxton is your guy.

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