Winning the first of three games against the New York Yankees on Friday was a great start for the Toronto Blue Jays in an important series. The AL East became close over August and early September, with the Jays losing a bit of a lead in the division. Their largest lead was 6.5 games on July 26th, and entering today, they sit four games ahead of the Boston Red Sox and 4.5 games in front of the Yankees.

While their current lead is just a couple of games ahead of that 6.5 game mark set back in late July, because the Jays face the Yankees (right now), Red Sox, Orioles, and Rays (x2) before the end of the month, this lead can drastically change if Toronto starts an ill-timed slump. One of the reasons this lead could evaporate dates back to last month, where where they lost a few games that should have gone their way.

There are worse problems to have than not closing out sweeps or — they’d be in a lot worse of a spot if they were losing the series — but their last sweep was against the Colorado Rockies in early August. That’s not to say that the Jays haven’t been sweeping teams throughout the season either; they are tied with the LA Dodgers for the most in MLB with seven, but they could’ve been the sole leader with a better August.

That month included series losses to the Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates, who have hovered around the .500 mark and well below it, respectively. The Jays also failed to win all three of their games against the weaker Miami Marlins. On paper, the Jays should have won two of three against the Pirates (minus the Paul Skenes start), two against the Royals, and the final contest against the Marlins. Those three games alone would have bolstered the Jays’ stance at the end of the season, giving them three additional games to work with in their favour.

The same could have been said for the Jays against the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers as well. While the Brew Crew are miles ahead of teams like the Pirates and Marlins, the Jays had a chance to win that recent Milwaukee series had their bullpen not imploded. Adding another win from that series would have been a nice feather in the cap for Toronto and another game to work with against their AL East rivals. The Dodgers series was a bit more complicated, as the bats struggled against the Dodgers’ starters in the first two contests, versus a complete bullpen implosion, although that was also prevalent in that series.

With the Jays’ lead over the AL East closing in on as small as 2.0 games in recent memory, their current series against the Yankees and the late September one against the Red Sox have become potentially their most important of the season. Those dates were always expected to be circled at the start of the year, but now they’re more important than they likely should have been because of this tight race down the stretch. A loss for the Jays is a direct gain for the Red Sox or Yankees, a double dip in the standings.

The team faces a tough schedule ahead of them in September. The only team they face that is below .500 is the Baltimore Orioles. Meanwhile, the Yankees, who will be chasing them for first place, face those same Orioles in two series, the bottom-feeding Chicago White Sox, and the Minnesota Twins, a much easier schedule (the Red Sox face a fairly equal schedule to the Jays).

All of that is a long-winded way to say that those missed games in August could come back to bite the Jays even if they beat the Yankees in this series. The same could be said about some earlier series in the year if we wanted to nit-pick, but with the Jays in ‘win-now’ mode following the trade deadline, these series are going to be heavily scrutinized.

As a team, the Jays have been consistent, winning a lot of series on their way to an 82-59 record, and that’s important in a long MLB season. If their lack of sweeps or series wins against weaker teams gives the Yankees or Red Sox just enough room to squeeze past them, they’ll likely be staring down a Wild Card matchup — something that fans who had to witness the 2020, 2022, and 2023 playoff Jays would probably like to avoid at all costs. A first-round bye will go a long way, which is great considering the Jays have some important tiebreakers in their back pocket.