Blue Jays baseball has been a lot more fun to watch in recent weeks. Even though a season with high expectations has completely gone off the rails, bolstering the farm system at the trade deadline and sweeping the reigning World Series champs have made for some fun baseball to watch. Another reason, and perhaps the biggest reason for a change in this team’s entertainment level, is the play of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is slashing .525/.586/1.136 with nine home runs, 18 RBIs, nine doubles, and nine walks since July 14th.

Guerrero Jr.’s production at the plate has been way more than a flash in the pan or a “good couple of weeks”. After a miserable start through Toronto’s first 17 games, Guerrero Jr. has posted a .341/.404/.571 slash line with a .974 OPS, 19 home runs, 66 RBIs, and 26 doubles since then. He now ranks 10th in the American League in home runs and RBIs, fourth in doubles and batting average, third in hits, and seventh in OPS. Not only are the numbers and league ranks positioning Guerrero Jr. as one of the best bats in the game, but he’s also returning to his 2021 MVP runner-up form, something that everyone has been yearning for since that season ended.

Guerrero Jr. has been up against lofty expectations since he signed with the Blue Jays in 2015. His top prospect status stayed with him throughout his minor league career. He was at the forefront of Toronto’s rebuild and new era, and of course, being the son of a Hall of Famer will only add to it. Perhaps his extraordinary ’21 campaign was a blessing and a curse for his career expectations; it was a blessing in that that season gave Blue Jays fans a preview of what was to come at such a young age, but the curse was that that type of output became the expectation.

With that being said, Guerrero Jr.’s previous two years have been “down seasons,” and while it sounds almost comical to classify them as such, the details of his inevitable next contract have been and will be contingent on the quality of seasons he has while still under club control. Add the pressure of that to the weight of Guerrero Jr.’s expectations. Given his recent success, Guerrero Jr.’s contract has been discussed even more, and the more that the ball flies out of the ballpark off of his bat, the more his dollar amount is going up.

Of course, this type of transaction takes two to tango. Enter Ross Atkins, Mark Shapiro, and the rest of the Blue Jays brass. Contract extensions haven’t necessarily been the name of this regime’s game. Randal Grichuk received a 5-year, $52 million extension in April of 2019, and José Berríos signed a 7-year, $131 million deal shortly after the 2021 season. To their credit, they also worked with Bo Bichette on a three-year, $33 million deal to get him through arbitration, but that’s no lifetime contract. As far as keeping existing guys in Toronto, that’s about all there is so far.

I’d imagine that the end of Passan’s quote is exactly the question Toronto will be asking themselves throughout this process. Is Guerrero Jr. a very good first baseman that deserves first baseman money, or is he the centrepiece that the Blue Jays should be building around?

Well, for starters, the front office has certainly acted as if Guerrero Jr. is already the centrepiece of their team. Ross Atkins added minimally to the offence last offseason, attributing last year’s offensive struggles to being “just a blip” in terms of production levels. Guerrero Jr. having a 26 home run, 94 RBI season was definitely a part of that, and they counted on him being better. Atkins also emphasized last offseason getting the players “the right information” to help them offensively, and Guerrero Jr. was included in that process. Finally, they’ve jettisoned key offensive pieces in Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in offseason trades, keeping Guerrero Jr. and not entertaining any trades that include him (at least to what has been revealed publicly).

In the same interview, Passan also pointed to the value of first basemen in general, saying that first base is typically “where you send guys who can’t play elsewhere.” He also referenced the contracts of first basemen Freddie Freeman and Bryce Harper, noting that Harper’s contract was given to him when he was an outfielder, and Freeman’s free agency wasn’t as predictable as some thought, dragging out into the spring of 2022. The Braves traded for Matt Olson in mid-March of that year, just days before Freeman signed with the Dodgers. He also brought up Pete Alonso, and while Alonso’s free agency may be a good tool for Guerrero Jr.’s negotiations, the fact that the Mets already have Francisco Lindor signed long-term doesn’t make these two situations the same in my mind.

In Guerrero Jr.’s case, he makes for an ideal long-term franchise player for the Blue Jays. For his career, he has posted OPSs equal to or north of .871 against AL East opponents. The smile can light up a room, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t adopted the villain role at times, especially in Yankee Stadium. In fact, some of his best moments have come against AL East opponents. Gerrit Cole tipped his cap to Guerrero Jr. after going 3-for-3 against him during an April 13th, 2022 battle in the Bronx. Just Saturday, Carlos Rodón insisted to Aaron Boone that he should be left in the game to face Guerrero Jr., and he couldn’t do it. He also hit the third-longest home run in Fenway Park a few weeks ago.

His age is also a major factor in these discussions; at only 25 years old, he’s way ahead of where Harper, Freeman, and Alonso were once they were negotiating their long-term contract. Still, at such a young age, the Blue Jays should capitalize on the fact that his prime years could still be ahead of him.

Does Toronto still have work to do with their batting order? Absolutely. For instance, it’d be nice to add a bat like Anthony Santander, a free agent after this season, who would be a massive upgrade to the cleanup spot and potentially protect Guerrero Jr. in the order.

The bottom line is that there aren’t Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s growing on trees, especially not in the Blue Jays organization. And given how free agency has gone for the Blue Jays recently, having a homegrown star who wants to be in a Blue Jays uniform long-term shouldn’t be taken for granted.