Early on, the results (or lack thereof) weren’t matching the eye test or promising under-the-hood results for Addison Barger following his triple-A promotion on Apr. 15. But the flood gates have since burst wide open as the Toronto Blue Jays return home from their 4-2 West Coast trip through Los Angeles (Anaheim) and Seattle.
Barger had played 14 games with the team prior to that road trip, hitting .139/.205/.222 with just three extra-base hits (all doubles) and a 22 wRC+ (100 league average) across 39 plate appearances. He was hitting balls hard, as evidenced by his 93 m.p.h. average exit velocity. The main issue was that most of his batted balls were finding gloves — nearly a quarter of them as pop-ups.
However, after exploding for eight hits — four of which went for extra bases — in 18 at-bats while driving in six over his last five games, the left-handed-hitting slugger is now slashing a much-improved .241/.305/.407 with a 104 wRC+ this season.
Anyone who’s observed Barger for more than a few seconds has always known him to be capable of producing an offensive surge like this. We had simply yet to see it materialize at the major-league level. There were tiny glimpses of the 25-year-old’s potential during his 69-game sample size with the Blue Jays last season. Still, he never looked right at the plate — a byproduct of poorly-advised mechanical changes suggested by the previous hitting staff regime.
Now that David Popkins is running the show, Barger has gotten back to the hitter that made him such an exciting prospect heading into 2024, whose toolbox features several elements that typically correlate with extended power stretches — which Toronto’s lineup needs more of.
When you combine those elements with Barger’s 27.3-per-cent pulled air rate (includes fly balls, line drives and pop-ups), which is nearly seven per cent above league average, chances are many of his batted balls will likely find the seats over a larger sample size.
For a player with Barger’s tools, he has an opportunity to make a significant impact for the Blue Jays in 2025. And that’s not just in the batter’s box. It’s in the field, too. But he needs to receive regular playing time for his presence to be felt in a meaningful way.
That was a struggle early on for Toronto, as the 2018 sixth-round selection made consecutive starts just twice during his first few weeks up from triple-A Buffalo. At this point, though, with Ernie Clement sliding from third to second base to fill in for the injured Andrés Giménez, the team likely plans to give Barger as many reps at the hot corner as he can handle in the short term.
Long term, however, the Leon King HS product has a real chance to prove he deserves to stay there in an everyday capacity.
The reality is, Clement hasn’t performed well enough to maintain his full-time role once Giménez — whose IL stint is expected to be brief — returns to second base. The 29-year-old has continued to provide reliable defence, as he’s tied for the fourth-most defensive runs saved (10) and sixth-most outs above average (seven) among major league third basemen since the start of last season. But he’s offered very little with his bat in that same span.
Clement’s offensive production wasn’t as bleak last season, considering his wRC+ finished just six per cent below league average across 452 plate appearances. This year, through 114 plate appearances, that figure has fallen to 76, placing him 24 per cent below league average.
So, if Barger can build off his recent surge, he should have an opportunity to grab hold of the lion’s share of playing time at third base moving forward — a position where he’s already offered modest value over a sample size of just 59.1 innings this season, registering one DRS and OAA each.
Barger’s skill set can also offer something that Clement’s can’t — strong, accurate throws across the infield.
While Clement’s defensive craft is tailored more to the range end of the scale, he uses his legs to overcome his below-average arm strength, which currently ranks in the 29th percentile (80.6 m.p.h.) of the majors. For reference, former Blue Jay Matt Chapman (87.6) leads all qualified major league third basemen in average arm strength in ’25, sitting a few ticks ahead of the position’s league-average reading of 85.2.
Barger, who’s only made 12 throws from third this season, needs 75 before Statcast can calculate an accurate reading of his average arm strength. But you don’t need a radar gun to know he possesses one of the strongest arms in the organization, if not the strongest. In case you’re wondering, he’s already been clocked at triple digits from the outfield in his young big-league career.
Needless to say, don’t be shocked if he soars up the leaderboard or even surpasses Chapman for first once he reaches those required 75 throws from the hot corner. In the meantime, Guerrero may want to add a bit of extra padding on the inside of his glove.
Even if Barger continues to blossom, both offensively and defensively, there will be days when the Blue Jays opt to sit him versus left-handed pitching. And, if things continue to trend in this direction, those situations will likely be when Clement — who’s hit .351/.405/.514 with a 161 wRC+ in 43 plate appearances against southpaws this season — earns most of his opportunities.
It probably shouldn’t be a traditional platoon between the pair, at least not over the long haul, as Barger features the necessary tools to excel versus certain left-handers. The ones he has struggled against in left-on-left matchups are those with downward-breaking arsenals such as sinkers, curveballs and changeups.
In his minor-league career, he features 89 tracked plate appearances versus those offerings from lefties, of which he’s produced a .218/.315/.295 slash line, .265 xwOBA and struck out nearly a third of the time.
The effectiveness of Barger’s bat will ultimately determine how often he starts for Toronto against left-handed pitching. If he proves he can handle himself, it’ll force the coaching staff to create more opportunities to have his lefty-thumping presence in the lineup, even if it means positioning him in right field on occasion.
For an offence craving power, Barger offers a cure for what has ailed the Blue Jays the last two-plus seasons. We just witnessed how impactful he can be for this group when provided the necessary playing time, and there’s no substitute for what he brings to the plate — or in the field.
It almost certainly won’t all be smooth sailing from here on out. There’ll surely be ups and downs to come for Barger as the rest of the sport continues to game plan against him. Even so, he’s exactly the type of development success story this franchise needs.
Any team that embarks on a successful regular season must receive meaningful contributions from unlikely sources. For the Blue Jays, George Springer has been their beacon of hope from an offensive standpoint thus far. Now, it’s Addison Barger’s turn.
