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American League playoff races with one week left to play
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Photo credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Brett Holden
Sep 24, 2024, 10:00 EDTUpdated: Sep 24, 2024, 10:28 EDT
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Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners (AL West)

The American League West is still not settled, but heading into a head-to-head series in the final week of the season could finally see the Champion of the West be crowned.
Seattle has had an exaggerated up-and-down season, from leading the Astros in the division by 8.5 games at one point to firing their manager of almost a decade after being swept in Hollywood; it has been a strange season in the Pacific Northwest. Despite it all, the Mariners still sit in the race for the division while also being engulfed in a Wild Card battle (which we’ll get to later).
After taking the first game of the series, the Mariners sit 4.0 games back of the Astros. Unfortunately for the Mariners, they enter the series 5-5 in their last 10 and 6-4 against the Astros this season. (Now 7-4).
Offensively, the usual suspects have been leading the charge for Seattle as Julio Rodriguez, Luke Raley, and Cal Raleigh have each hit four or more homers since the start of September. The Mariners have 10+ hits in 11 of their last 18 games, really picking up their offence down the stretch. However, it hasn’t been the blockbuster Trade Deadline acquisition in Randy Arozarena that has carried his weight since joining the team; instead, it has been grizzled veteran Justin Turner, who has been the more productive of the offensive additions. Turner is leading the two in OPS, average, OBP, home runs, RBIs, slugging, and basically every other offensive stat there is since joining the team.
Weirdly enough, since the start of September, it hasn’t been the Mariners dominating pitching staff that is winning games. The M’s pitchers sit 18th in the MLB in pitching WAR while their batters sit second in all of baseball in hitting WAR with 5.8. Starters Bryan Woo and Logan Gilbert each sit with an ERA north of 4.00, along with closer Andrés Muñoz.
Heading into the Houston series, Seattle has only announced the starter for the series opener, Bryce Miller. Miller has been the best starter for the M’s since the beginning of September, posting a 1.99 ERA, with 23 strikeouts, and a .179 average in 22.2 innings. In the series opener, Miller tossed 7.0 innings of shutout ball with five strikeouts and only allowing two walks and two hits.
Attributing to the murkiness on the bump for the M’s heading into the pivotal series is the condition of Luis Castillo. Castillo has been out since September 8th when he injured his hamstring. While Castillo is available to return from the Injured List on Tuesday, reports suggest he will not be ready for the Astros.
On the flip side, the Astros have been on a tear; fresh off a four-game sweep against the Angels, Houston is 7-3 in their last ten games. Yordan Alvarez has been mashing the baseball of late, sitting first in the American League in home runs with eight. Plus, Chas McCormick and the returning Kyle Tucker from injury have been exactly what the ‘Stros needed. Since his return on September 6th, Tucker sits second on the team in average, behind only McCormick, first in OBP, slugging, OPS, and the third-best barrel percentage on the team. Since his return, the team itself has led all of baseball in batting average, third in OPS and offensive WAR, and first in hard-hit baseballs.
However, the pitching has not been as hot; The Astros have the 23rd-best pitching WAR in September with nine pitchers with an ERA north of 3.70 (20.0 IP minimum). While they have had some pitching problems, Ronel Blanco has stayed hot all year, sitting with an ERA of 0.95 in September, and Framber Valdez has been great since returning from injury with a 0.89 ERA this month. Plus, the Astros’ big ticket Deadline acquisition, Yusei Kikuchi, has been lights out. The Houston Astros have yet to lose a game Yusei Kikuchi has pitched in since his debut on August 2nd. Kikuchi will start the final game of the series on Wednesday, which could be an important game in the AL West title race.
Sep 17, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Craig Kimbrel (46) walks off the field after being removed during the ninth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

AL Wild Card Race

Baltimore Orioles: 86-70 (+4.0 GB)
The Baltimore Orioles have again fallen victim to the AL Beast. The O’s are making the playoffs. There is no question about it. While the Yankees have already clinched a place in October and the division title, the Orioles still need to secure their spot.
Unfortunately for Baltimore, they have been in the midst of a 3-7 battle over the last 10, fresh off losing two of three against the hottest team in baseball, the Detroit Tigers. The O’s are in deep. With a series against the Yankees coming up to start the week and wrapping up with a team battling for a Wild Card spot in the Twins, The Orioles could be against the ropes heading into the Postseason.
For a team whose magic number currently sits at two heading into Monday, this final week could be a real test for the young team entering October. But, the team hasn’t statistically been that bad. While the offence sits in the bottom-third of the league in batting WAR, their pitchers sit 12th in WAR since the start of the month, sit in the middle of the pack when it comes to barrel%, and hold the best hard-hit% in all of baseball. Not a ton of hard-hit balls is good. (Duh).
The offence has not followed; James McCann is not only the most productive catcher on the team but the most productive in the final month of the season. McCann leads the team in average, slugging, and OPS. Gunnar Henderson and Livian Soto are the only other Orioles with batting averages north of .300, but take that with a grain of salt; Soto only has 13 plate appearances this month.
The exit velocity and barrels have been few and far between for the O’s down the stretch, situated in the bottom third in the league in both barrel% and hard-hit%. They are not hitting balls hard. Not good. (duh). Creating runs has been sparse too; another stat category they sit in the bottom third in with a wRC+ of 79, 23rd in the league.
This final week of the season could be a look into the future of the Baltimore Orioles’ stay in the Postseason.
Detroit Tigers: 82-74 (0 GB)
The hottest team in baseball: the Detroit Tigers. Heading into August, the team had a 0.2% chance of making the Postseason; on September 23rd, they have a 70.5% chance. Insane. With a 7-3 record in the last ten games and 21-9 in their last 30, the Tigers are making the run of a lifetime.
The youth has been the story in the Motor City as the Tigers employ only two guys over 30: Andy Ibanez and Kenta Maeda. Four of the Tigers’ top five batting average leaders are below the age of 25: Colt Keith, Jace Jung, Riley Greene, and Trey Sweeney. While they haven’t been overpowering their opposition offensively, sitting 10th in WAR and 12th in wRC+, they are still winning games.
Now the Tigers hold their Postseason hopes in their hands. The final week for them seems relatively straightforward with the Tampa Bay Rays, who sit fourth in the AL East, who, while they have gone 7-3 in their last 10, sit an even 10-10 in the last 20 and have faced teams outside the playoff picture in each of their previous two series. After the Rays, Detroit heads to the South Side of Chicago as they wrap up their season against the historically worst team in MLB history. Need I say more?
Now, while these final six games for the Tigers won’t paint a clear picture of the team heading into October, this run alone is enough to show the heart and passion the Tigers hold heading into postseason baseball.
Kansas City Royals: 86-70 (0 GB)
The Royals are scary… and not in a good way. It’s more like a Simpsons Halloween House of Horrors late 90s special type. And let’s be clear, this isn’t a Chicago White Sox ugly, but for a team currently occupying a playoff spot, fighting for a playoff berth, it’s scary.
When you continue to zoom out for the Kansas City Royals it gets uglier and uglier, in their last 10 games they are 2-8, including a sweep at the hands of the San Francisco Giants where they were outscored 13-1; In their last 20 they are 7-13, 26th best record in the league; and in their last 30 games, they are 12-18, also good for 26th best in the MLB.
If it wasn’t for Bobby Witt Jr., I would be terrified about where this team would be. Outside of Bobby, only one other player has a WAR above 1.0 since the Trade Deadline. That player is 34-year-old Salvador Perez. (Honestly shocked Salvy is only 34, thought he was 38 at least). For reference, Bobby Witt Jr.’s WAR sits at 3.2 in that time.
September has been bad for their offence sitting last in the league in average, slugging, OPS, home runs, runs, and RBIs, while sitting second last in wRC+ in September. Not exactly the time you want your bats to run cold.
However, the pitching has been a different story; Fifth in baseball in WAR, and SIERA, eighth-most strikeouts, third-best strikeout%, it has been their arms and defence that have won them games. A good sign for a team heading into October. Defence wins championships, it’s the only way to prevent runs, now if the Royals can find their offensive touch with the Twins breathing down their backs would be massive for KC heading into October.
To finish the season, Kansas City heads into the nation’s capital to face off against the Nationals, which should be an opportunity to create some space for the Twins. But, to wrap up the season, the Royals head into Atlanta, who sit 2.0 games outside the Wild Card spot and will be hungry to finish the job against a labouring side.
If KC can find a way to fend off the Twins and Mariners and make the Postseason, it could be a quick visit to fall baseball for the Royals.
Minnesota Twins: 81-75 (1.0 GB) 
Sitting just 1.0 game back of the wavering Royals, the Twins have been unable to convert on KC’s mistakes. Going only 3-7 in their last 10 games, the Twins see themselves on the outside looking into the playoff picture.
But, the final week could be rather friendly to Minnesota. Minny will wrap up the final week of the season at home at Target Field, hosting the second-worst team in baseball, the Miami Marlins, and the AL Wild Card-leading Baltimore Orioles. Now, while the Orioles are a damn-good team, their magic number sits at two, meaning an O’s win against the Yankees and a Tigers+Royals loss clinches the Orioles a playoff berth. Baltimore will not want to risk any injuries in a meaningless final series of the season, allowing the Twins to take advantage of two teams who may be ready for September to end.
Just like the Royals, the offence has gone to sleep for Minnesota this month, sitting 26th in the league in WAR, 27th in average, 25th in OBP, 28th in slugging, 27th in barrel%, and 21st in hard-hit%. Yikes. The thing for the Twins has been the lack of consistency; Kyle Farmer has been the most productive hitter this month, leading the team in numerous offensive categories like average, OPS, and slugging, it just becomes a hodgepodge of players after him in every other stat. Carlos Santana leads the team in homers but sits fifth in slugging. Austin Martin is third in batting average, but 6th or lower in every other category other than OBP. Matt Wallner has the 6th best average on the team in September but is top-three in OBP, slugging, and OPS. It doesn’t make sense, the team has too many one-dimensional hitters. (Outside of the oft-injured Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis of course).
Unlike the Royals, their pitching has been just as bad. Only six of their 18 pitchers that have pitched this month have thrown over 10.0 innings and only one of those pitchers have an ERA below 3.00 in Bailey Ober. In fact, he is the only pitcher with an ERA south of 4.50 as Pablo Lopez owns that ERA and sits second on the team this month. That’s insane for a team fighting for a playoff spot. Minny’s pitching staff has an ERA of 4.53 in September, which is the worst of any American League team in the playoff race.
I’ll be honest, while the Twins have a prime opportunity to jump ahead of the Royals and maybe the Tigers in this final week of the season, the “tests” they will face against the Marlins and the (probably) already clinched Orioles will not be enough to get them ready for October baseball.
Seattle Mariners: 81-76 (1.5 GB)
As mentioned with the fight for the division, this season has been a rollercoaster for the M’s. Yet, despite all the volatility, the Mariners have still positioned themselves to be in striking distance of October. Plus, even with the season they have had, of the three teams they are chasing, they are in the best shape heading into the final week.
With a big win in Houston, pulling themselves within 4.0 games of the AL West and 1.5 games back of a Wild Card spot, Seattle has cemented itself a path that leaves their destiny in their hands. Already taking one of the three games against the division-leading Houston Astros, the M’s have taken a little pressure off their shoulders. Is anything guaranteed in this league? Absolutely not; just look at the Tigers September run. But when Seattle is done in Houston, they head home to host the Oakland Athletics… The fifth-worst team in baseball.
With the Royals facing off against the Postseason hunting Atlanta Braves and the Twins hosting the Wild Card-leading Baltimore Orioles, they may have a chance to sneak into the final Wild Card spot… Only if they can steal another half-game/full-game from Houston.

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