Alan Roden could break a Blue Jays curse

The Blue Jays prospect wave is here.

With the season collapsing around them, Toronto has given the keys to the kids. Davis Schneider is getting a regular run, Addison Barger and Orelvis Martinez (until his suspension) were called up, and Leo Jimenez is probably on his way soon.

After that, all eyes will turn to Alan Roden, the next Toronto hitting prospect who should bang down the doors of the Big Leagues. There are plenty of reasons to be excited about Roden. He shows great command of the zone with solid power, can steal a base, and has hit his way up to Triple-A. But, most excitingly, he’s got a shot to be Toronto’s first successful outfield development story in a decade.

The Blue Jays’ 2024 opening outfield consisted of Kevin Kiermaier, Daulton Varsho, and George Springer — two free-agent signings and a trade acquisition making a collective $40 million this year. That pricey group has been a necessity for the Blue Jays recently because the team has been unable to develop their own outfielders.

The Blue Jays acquired and finished off the development of Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., but if you want to find an outfielder the Jays drafted and cultivated all the way to an impact big leaguer, we’ve gotta go back to Kevin Pillar. It’s been almost 15 years since the Jays drafted and developed a real big-league outfielder.

The past two World Series champions both had a majority of their starting outfields internally grown (Evan Carter and Leody Tavares for 2023 Texas, Kyle Tucker and Chas McCormick for 2022 Houston). Developing talent anywhere on the diamond helps, obviously, but the Jays have basically discarded the potential for doing so in the outfield.

The big reason for Toronto’s lack of OF development is that the Jays really haven’t drafted any outfielders. D.J. Davis (2012) and J.B. Woodman (2016) are the only outfielders the Jays have selected in the first two rounds since that Pillar pick in 2011. But there haven’t been any development success stories, either — unless you want to count Jonathan Davis. Roden can finally buck the trend.

A third-round pick in the 2022 draft, Roden has been drawing eyes and jumping up prospect rankings since a breakout 2023 season. The Wisconsin native followed up a powerless 2022 pro debut with a five-tool flash across High-A and Double-A last year. He slashed .317/.431/.459 with 10 homers and 24 stolen bases (on 28 attempts) in 115 games.

The first thing that drew attention to Roden last year, aside from the solid stat line, was a Kevin Youkilis-esque pre-pitch set-up. The 24-year-old held his hands way above his head, twisting into a leg kick before lashing at the ball with plenty of moving parts. It’s the type of swing that hitting coaches have nightmares about, but it worked. Even still, Roden came into 2023 Spring Training with a simplified and more traditional approach, bringing the hands down and smoothing out the entire swing. In 24 at-bats in MLB spring training, Roden hit two homers, posting a .333 OBP and .875 OPS.

Looking at some film of Roden in the minors this year, the swing tweaks have seemingly continued — the hands are starting a bit higher, though not way up where they started. The thing that’s been constant is the command of the zone and hitting.

With an .805 OPS and over 10% walk rate, Roden earned himself a promotion from Double- to Triple-A earlier this month, putting himself on the brink of MLB. The first few weeks in Triple-A haven’t been great, as Roden has just a .584 OPS at the level in seven games. But, he’s got four hits (including a homer) in his last four games, and the eye and speed are clearly still there.

If Roden can figure out Triple-A and push himself up one more level, the 2023 draft pick has a chance to do what no Blue Jays prospect has done in quite some time: be an outfield developmental success story.