Blue Jays vs Braves 05/11/21 – Odds and MLB Betting Trends

The Toronto Blue Jays and the Atlanta Braves are both on an OVER run, which might supersede their totals trends in interleague play.  The Blue Jays are +125 underdogs on the road while the Atlanta Braves are -143 home favorites with a 9.0-run total for Tuesday night at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how the moneyline works).

The Blue Jays are 5-10 in their last 15 away games as an underdog of 100 to +150, with the OVER hitting nine times at sports betting sites. They are 6-7 in their last 13 away games against NL East teams, with the total going UNDER 11 times. The Braves are 4-7 in their last 11 home games as a -130 to -160 favorite, with the OVER hitting nine times. Atlanta has a 9-3 record over 12 recent games against the AL East, with the total staying UNDER seven times.

The Blue Jays, who are 17-16, are scoring 4.85 runs per game and rank 12th among the 30 MLB teams with a .713 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage).The total has gone OVER in seven of Toronto’s last 10 away games due to a regression in pitching, as the staff ranks 12th with a 3.91 earned-run average. Toronto has the fourth-best bullpen ERA at 2.92, but closer Rafael Dolis (calf) is sidelined.

The Braves, who are 17-17, are scoring 4.68 runs per game and rank seventh with a .736 OPS. The total has gone OVER in seven of Atlanta’s last 10 home games as the pitching staff is 23rd in ERA at 4.54. The Braves relievers’ collective 4.45 ERA is 22nd in MLB.

Lefthander Robbie Ray (1-1, 3.14 ERA, 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings) will start for the Blue Jays on Tuesday. Atlanta’s pitching plan is unannounced. Ray, who has helped the total go UNDER in four of his last seven road starts, has a 4.50 ERA in 28 career innings against Atlanta.

Lefthander Hyun Jin Ryu (2-2, 3.31 ERA, 8.8 SO/9) will start opposite fellow lefty Max Fried (1-1, 8.44 ERA, 11.3.Y SO/9) on Wednesday. The Blue Jays are 7-4 in Ryu’s last 11 away starts, with the total finishing UNDER in seven of the last eight. Ryu also has a 2.37 ERA in 38 career innings against Atlanta. Fried, who has been hampered by a strained hamstring in the early season, has helped Atlanta go 7-2 in his last nine home starts, but the OVER has hit in seven of those games.

Righthander Ross Stripling (0-2, 6.61 ERA, 9.4 SO/9) will start opposite Atlanta righty Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.98 ERA, 10.5 SO/9) in Thursday’s matinee matchup. Stripling has been struggling to go deep into starts, and the total has gone OVER in six of his last 10 away starts with his teams going 5-5. Stripling has a 4.50 career ERA against Atlanta in 24 innings. Morton’s command of his curveball and cut fastball has been tenuous lately, and the total has gone OVER in his last six starts at home. Morton has a 3.83 ERA in 47 innings against Toronto.

The Blue Jays are back at TD Park in Dunedin, Fla., on Friday to begin a three-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies.