Blue Jays vs Rays 07/09/21 – Odds and MLB Betting Trends

A rainout has given the Toronto Blue Jays a chance to rest some starting pitchers who have fared well against the Tampa Bay Rays, who are otherwise their archnemesis. The Blue Jays opened as +120 away underdogs and the Tampa Bay Rays as -130 home favorites with a 9.0-run total on the MLB odds for Friday night’s game at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how the moneyline works).

The Blue Jays are 6-14 in their last 20 games as an away underdog against the Rays, with the OVER hitting 10 times at online sports betting sites with two pushes. They are 9-6 in their last 15 games as an underdog on the road, though, and seven of their last nine such matchups have finished UNDER. The Rays are 16-4 in their last 20 games as home favorites with the OVER hitting 12 times.

The Blue Jays have a 44-40 record, and they are MLB’s second-highest scoring team at 5.21 runs per game. Toronto’s .784 OPS is also second. George Springer (1.133 OPS vs. Tampa Bay), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1.096) and Marcus Semien (.939) have been Toronto’s three best hitters against Tampa Bay so far this season. On the mound, the Blue Jays are 12th in both overall ERA (3.97) and relief ERA (3.93)

The Rays are 51-36, and are eighth in run scoring at 4.91 per game. They are 16th in OPS (.713). In the season series, Francisco Mejia (1.037 OPS vs. Toronto), Ji-Man Choi (1.017) and Wander Franco (1.000) have been Tampa Bay’s best hitters against Toronto. On the mound, the Rays are seventh in overall ERA (3.55) and fourth in relief ERA (3.38).

Rookie righthander Alek Manoah (2-0, 2.70 ERA, 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings) will start on Friday opposite Rays rookie lefthander Shane McClanahan (3-3, 4.18 ERA, 10.6 SO/9). Manoah threw seven shutout innings in his first career start against the Rays on July 2, and the Blue Jays are 2-1 as underdogs when he starts with the UNDER hitting twice. McClanahan has a 3.48 ERA in 10.1 innings against the Blue Jays. The Rays are 3-2 as home favorites when he starts, with the OVER hitting four times.

Righty Ross Stripling (3-4, 4.06 ERA, 9.3 SO/9) will start in Saturday’s matchup. Tampa Bay has not confirmed its starter, but lefty Ryan Yarbrough (5-3, 4.34 ERA, 7.4 SO/9) should be ready to take a turn on five days’ rest. Stripling has an 0.48 ERA over 18.2 career innings against the Rays, and his teams are 7-4 in his last 11 away starts with the OVER hitting six times. Yarbrough has famously had Toronto’s number with a 2.38 ERA in 68 career innings, but the Rays are 3-6 in his last nine home starts with the OVER hitting six times.

Lefthander Steven Matz (7-4, 4.72 ERA, 9.7 SO/9) was projected to start for the Blue Jays on Sunday according to MLB.com as of Friday morning. Tampa Bay had not confirmed a starter, but it could be a turn in the rotation for lefty Rich Hill (6-3, 3.65 ERA, 8.9 SO/9). Hill has a 4.76 ERA in 22.2 innings against Toronto and the Rays are 5-1 in his last six home starts, with the OVER hitting five times.

After the all-star break, the Blue Jays resume play with a three-game home series against the Texas Rangers that begins on July 16.