MLB Betting Preview (April 24): Blue Jays vs. Royals predictions

Photo credit:Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Greg Warren
2 days ago
The Toronto Blue Jays will continue their four-game series with the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday night at Kauffman Stadium after letting one slip away Tuesday.
Toronto took a 2-0 lead into the fifth inning Tuesday, but a careless fielding error from first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. helped the Royals rally for three runs in the bottom of the fifth that proved to be the difference in the 3-2 Kansas City victory.
The teams have split the first two games of the series, and the Royals snapped a three-game slide with Tuesday’s victory. The series finale will be played on Thursday afternoon before the Blue Jays return home for a three-game set with Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Let’s take a look at the game odds for Wednesday’s clash between the Blue Jays and Royals courtesy of bet365:

Blue Jays vs. Royals odds

Blue Jays Moneyline Odds-120
Royals Moneyline Odds+100
Runline OddsBlue Jays -1.5 (+135), Royals +1.5 (-160)
Over/UnderOver 9 runs (-105), Under 9 runs (-115)
Time/DateApril 24, 7:40 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: Sportsnet 1, Sportsnet+

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (13-11 SU, 14-10 ATS, 10-14 o/u)

With two outs in the bottom of the fifth inning, Guerrero Jr. failed to catch third baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s fairly accurate throw on a potentially inning-ending grounder allowing the Royals to plate their first run of the game. Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. then doubled in two more runs for Kansas City later in the inning to cap a three-run frame and spoil a very good outing from Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman, who tossed 6 2/3 innings while being tagged for three unearned runs.
In addition to his fielding blunder, Guerrero Jr. went 0-for-5 with two strikeouts at the plate and left four baserunners on. In 58 at-bats away from Rogers Centre, the first baseman is slashing just .207/.313/.345 with 17 strikeouts.

On a more positive note, outfielder Daulton Varsho remained hot at the plate, going 1-for-3 with a double, stolen base, and a walk. He’s launched six home runs in his last 11 games while collecting 13 RBIs during that span.
Overall, the Blue Jays have struggled offensively through 24 games, averaging 3.9 runs per game (21st in majors) while ranking in the bottom half of MLB in team batting average (.235 – 20th), slugging percentage (.374 – 19th), OPS (.694 – 17th), and home runs (21 – 21st).

Betting Kansas City Royals (14-10 SU, 14-10 ATS, 8-15-1 o/u)

The Royals have to be feeling encouraged about a three-hit performance from Witt Jr. on Tuesday night after the young shortstop had a quiet handful of games at the plate leading up to the contest. He also collected two RBIs and stole a bag in the victory.
Salvador Perez went 1-for-4 with a double to keep up his scorching start to the season at the plate. The veteran catcher has a .987 OPS with six homers and leads the American League with 22 RBIs.
Vinnie Pasquantino went 0-for-4 on Tuesday and left five runners on base to halt his hitting streak at 11 games.
Pitching has really carried the Royals early this season as the staff is allowing just 3.2 runs per game, tied for first in the majors. Royals pitchers have a combined 3.21 ERA (fifth in MLB) and they’ve allowed just 15 home runs to the opposition (fourth-best mark in majors). The team’s position players have been exceptional behind their hurlers, boasting a .990 fielding percentage (tied for second in the majors).

Probable starting pitchers

Toronto: RHP Yariel Rodriguez (0-0, 2.35 ERA, 15.26 K/9, 1.30 WHIP)
Rodriguez will be making his third big-league start and he’s impressed in his first two outings, allowing just two earned runs in 7 2/3 innings of work while racking up an impressive 13 strikeouts. He increased his pitch count to 83 last time out against the Padres so it’s possible that any kind of pitch limit the Jays had for him could be dropped this time around. Rodriguez’s devastating slider has been baffling opposing hitters, accounting for nine of his 13 strikeouts. Opposing batters are hitting just .222 against his wipeout pitch. Just like in his first two starts, Rodriguez will have the element of surprise as none of the players on the current Kansas City roster have ever faced the Cuban righty.
Kansas City: RHP Alec Marsh (3-0, 3.22 ERA, 6.45 K/9, 1.03 WHIP)
Marsh has been a very pleasant surprise for the Royals through four starts, holding the opposition to three runs or less in three of those four outings. The right-hander earned the fifth — and final spot — in the Royals’ rotation out of spring training after pitching to an ugly 3-9 record with a bloated 5.69 ERA in 17 appearances for Kansas City during his rookie season last year. The 25-year-old relies on six different pitches to keep opposing hitters off balance, but his curveball and changeup are his two best pitches. Batters are hitting just .143 against both of those pitches this season.


Forecasts are calling for evening temperatures around 18 C with clear skies. Winds will be blowing in from right field at 7 mph.

MLB betting trends

  • Away favourites are 74-41 (64.3%) straight-up in MLB this season.
  • The under is 4-1 in Toronto’s last five games.
  • The under is 7-2 in Kansas City’s last nine games.
  • Toronto has a record of 6-3 (66.7%) when favoured by -119 or more by oddsmakers this season.

MLB player prop trends

  • Varsho has hit safely in four straight games and six of his last seven.  He’s a steep -200 to get a hit and is 0-for-1 in his career against Marsh.
  • Justin Turner has scored a run in three straight games and four of his last five. The veteran boasts an impressive .407 on-base percentage this season and is +120 to score.

Blue Jays vs. Royals predictions

  • Rodriguez over 4.5 strikeouts: -135. There’s reason to believe the right-hander will continue to be effective until the book is out on him. He’s recorded seven and six strikeouts, respectively, over his initial two MLB starts and he’ll be challenging for a Royals lineup that’s never faced him before. He was stretched out to 83 pitches last time out, so it’s reasonable that he gets a slightly longer leash in the 90-100 pitch range on Wednesday, which only gives him more opportunities to amass more strikeouts.
  • Under 9 total runs: -115. Both games in this series have played under the total and both teams have trended towards the under all season long. This should be another low-scoring affair with two starting pitchers that are in good form right now. 

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