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MLB Betting Preview (June 5): Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions

Baltimore Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle (6) hits a three-run home run against the Toronto Blue Jays during the third inning at Rogers Centre.
Photo credit:John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Greg Warren
1 month ago
The Toronto Blue Jays have a lot of work to do in order to earn a split in their four-game series with the Baltimore Orioles.
Baltimore cruised to a 10-1 victory on Tuesday behind a pair of homers from Ryan Mountcastle and Connor Norby’s first big-league home run. Orioles ace Corbin Burnes mowed down the Blue Jays, holding them to one run over seven solid innings of work.
 
 
Toronto is now 1-3 against the Orioles this season and has dropped the first two games of this series in convincing fashion at Rogers Centre. 
Let’s dive into the game odds for Wednesday’s contest between the Orioles and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365:

Orioles vs. Blue Jays odds

Orioles Moneyline Odds+100
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds-120
Runline OddsBlue Jays -1.5 (+160), Orioles +1.5 (-190)
Over/UnderOver 8 runs (-115), Under 8 runs (-105)
Time/DateJune 5, 7:07 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+

Betting Baltimore Orioles (39-20 SU, 33-26 ATS, 29-22-8 o/u)

The red-hot Orioles have won 10 of their last 12 games and they’ve belted seven homers and put up 17 runs in the first two games of this series with Toronto. But what’s scary is that the bulk of the damage inflicted in this series is being done by some unheralded players on the roster, such as Ramon Urias, Austin Hays, and Norby who have all gone deep over the past two games.
Norby was called up to make his big-league debut with the Orioles on Monday, and his first major league hit left the ballpark on Tuesday night. The Orioles have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to prospects, as Norby is ranked as their No. 6 prospect by MLB Pipeline. They have an abundance of talent in the minors to call upon, if needed, or to dangle in a potential trade to improve the big-league roster.
The Orioles have swatted 91 home runs through 59 games, just one behind the New York Yankees for the most in the majors.
 
 

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (28-32 SU, 29-31 ATS, 27-32-1 o/u)

The momentum the Blue Jays built after two series wins against the Chicago White Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates has completely evaporated after two demoralizing losses to the Orioles at home.
Once again, the bats have gone cold. The Blue Jays have managed to plate just three runs in the first two games of this series after scoring just five runs total in two games last month at Camden Yards. They’re averaging just 3.9 runs per game (25th in the majors).
One positive is that outfielder George Springer appears to be turning a corner offensively after being dropped down to the No. 6 spot in the batting order. He has at least one hit in seven of his last eight games, including three multi-hit performances, and he belted his fifth homer of the season on Tuesday.

Probable starting pitchers

Baltimore: RHP Albert Suarez (2-0, 1.57 ERA, 7.60 K/9, 0.99 WHIP)
Injuries have prompted the Orioles to get creative with their starting rotation so Suarez will get the ball for his sixth start this season. The right-hander pitched five innings of one-run ball against the Tampa Bay Rays last time out, notching five strikeouts while walking a pair. He held the White Sox scoreless through four innings in his start before that. The Blue Jays will see a ton of fastballs from Suarez, who uses his heater that averages roughly 95 mph, about 50% of the time. He also mixes in a cutter, changeup, and curveball.
Toronto: RHP Jose Berrios (5-4, 2.78 ERA, 7.02 K/9, 1.08 WHIP)
Where would the Blue Jays be without the outstanding consistency of Berrios this season? The righty has held the opposition to three earned runs or less in 11 of his 12 starts and he had success in his lone start against Baltimore on May 13. In that outing, Berrios threw seven innings of two-run ball while striking out four batters. However, he was taken deep twice by the Orioles in that start.

Weather

The retractable dome at Rogers Centre will likely be closed due to a serious threat (100% chance of precipitation) of thunderstorms in Toronto throughout the evening hours.

MLB betting trends

  • The Blue Jays have played over the total in four straight games.
  • Baltimore has won 19 straight series against AL East opponents and is 2-0 in this four-game series with Toronto.
  • Toronto has not scored a run in the first inning in a franchise-record 26 straight games.
  • The over is 5-2-1 in Baltimore’s last eight games.
  • The Orioles are 13-4 against AL East opponents this year.

MLB player prop trends

  • Berrios has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last starts, averaging 5.4 per game during that span. He’s -160 to record over 4.5 strikeouts.
  • Baltimore has several players riding hit streaks, including Adley Rutschman (eight games), Gunnar Henderson (seven), and Anthony Santander (seven). Rutschman is -230 to get a hit, Henderson is -250, and Santander is -180.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions

  • NRFI (no run first inning): -120. How can we not continue to back this trend? The Blue Jays haven’t scored in the first inning in 26 straight games and the Orioles are also slow starters, posting a 45-14 NRFI record (76%) this season. If those two stats aren’t enough for you, Suarez has held the opposition scoreless in the first inning of each of his five starts this season, too.
  • Rutschman will be licking his lips when he steps into the batter’s box against Berrios on Tuesday. The Orioles catcher is slashing an incredible .632/.667/.1.211 against the Blue Jays right-hander in 19 career at-bats with three homers and four RBIs. Rutschman is -240 to get a hit, +125 to record over 1.5 total bases, and +550 to go deep. Our recommended play is Rutschman over 1.5 total bases (+125).
  • Orioles moneyline: +100. This line opened at Orioles +120 late Tuesday night at bet365 and has already been bet down to even money as of Wednesday morning. I’m a little surprised the red-hot Orioles didn’t open as small favourites in this contest and playing them to win at even money is still good value. Yes, Toronto has the edge in this starting pitching matchup, but the Blue Jays rolled out five relievers on Tuesday, leaving Yimi Garcia, Chad Green, and Brendon Little as the only fresh arms in the bullpen on Wednesday. That means the pressure is on Berrios to pitch at least into the seventh inning and the Orioles are beaming with confidence at the plate right now. On the other side, Baltimore’s bullpen is totally fresh after two relievers combined to throw just 19 pitches on Tuesday. The Orioles will only need three or four innings from Suarez before turning the ball over.

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