MLB Betting Preview (May 23): Blue Jays vs. Tigers

After taking two of three games from a terrible Chicago White Sox team at home, the Toronto Blue Jays make the short trip to Detroit to play an improved Tigers team at Comerica Park starting Thursday night at 6:40 ET.

The game, a toss-up according to the odds, pits Kevin Gausman, a Cy Young contender in each of his three previous seasons, trying to reverse course on a rough two months against Jack Flaherty, who appears to be regaining his dominant form after three down seasons affected by injury.

The bottom of the second inning Wednesday night provided a bonanza of what the struggling Jays’ offence needed: well-timed hits. The Jays scored seven runs, their biggest inning of the season, and all of them came with two outs. The big blows were a two-run Daulton Varsho triple and a two-run Bo Bichette home run. Chris Bassitt was able to cruise behind the big lead and pitched his finest game this season.

The win, albeit against the worst team in the American League, gave Toronto its first series win since taking two of three in San Diego ending on April 21. The Blue Jays, still in last place in the AL East, are trying to keep from dropping out of the playoff race by mid-season and it will take more than a series win against a woeful opponent to prevent that. Toronto has scored the fewest runs in MLB aside from the White Sox and has a team .671 OPS, which ranks 22nd.

Detroit will be trying to snap a four-game losing streak after being swept earlier this week in Kansas City, where ace Tarik Skubal has struggled for some reason. The Tigers surprised many people by winning 78 games last season and finishing in second place in a highly mediocre AL Central. If anything, they have played slightly better this season, giving Motor City fans hope that this is the moment when the rebuild begins to pay dividends.

The Tigers’ strength has been their pitching. They rank 10th in MLB in ERA and are getting outstanding work from Skubal, Jack Flaherty and Reese Olson, among others. Detroit got good news when Olson withstood a hard line drive that hit him in the hip in Monday’s game. He threw a side session Wednesday and is likely to face the Blue Jays this weekend. Veteran Kenta Maeda is a candidate to make the other weekend start after pitching three innings in a minor league rehab start Sunday for Triple-A Toledo.

The Tigers’ offence, which ranks 22nd in runs scored, isn’t much more explosive than Toronto’s, but it is getting nice production from outfielder Riley Greene, who leads the team with nine home runs.

The Jays were hopeful their erstwhile ace was turning a corner after a few good starts in a row, but then he had a rough outing vs. the Minnesota Twins in which he allowed seven runs on 10 hits in just three innings. Gausman hasn’t displayed the Cy Young-contending form of previous seasons thus far in 2024. His season was delayed after feeling some shoulder fatigue during spring training, an injury that shut him down for a couple of weeks.

Gausman bounced back in his last start, allowing three runs on eight hits over six innings in a loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. Gausman’s biggest issue seems to be diminished stuff. His fastball is down to a pedestrian average of 93.8 mph and, while he still gets plenty of chases on his split-finger fastball, his whiff rate and hard-hit rate both are below average.

After several seasons of injury and underperformance, Flaherty seems to have regained the elite stuff that made him one of the best pitchers in the major leagues in 2019. He has bounced around since coming up as a first-round draft pick of the St. Louis Cardinals. He was traded to Baltimore last July and then signed a one-year, $14 million deal to pitch in Detroit. It looks like that pillow contract could pay off nicely for Flaherty, who is second only to Garrett Crochet – the pitcher Toronto faced on Tuesday – for strikeouts in the American League.

Flaherty’s bread and butter is a wipeout slider that, combined with his curveball, puts him in the 98th percentile for breaking ball run value. He also has regained some zip on his four-seam fastball, which has averaged 94 mph this season. Once again, the Blue Jays are in deep against a pitcher with elite swing-and-miss stuff.

It’s expected to be a lovely evening in downtown Detroit, with forecasters calling for sunshine and first-pitch temperatures of about 25C and a steady wind blowing out to left field at about 16 km/h.

The Tigers have hit more overs than unders this season and that trend is particularly pronounced in recent games. Their last five games have exceeded the run total.

The Blue Jays World Series odds have plummeted, to +5500, and bookmakers certainly don’t seem to be buying Detroit’s uptick. The Tigers are +15000 to win the trophy.

Home runs figure to be in short supply during this series. Both teams rank in the bottom four for long balls.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. appears to be coming on at the plate, batting .365 with a .911 OPS over his last 21 games and driving in 13 runs. Those results reflect Guerrero’s penchant for hitting the ball hard, something he has done most of the season. Guerrero ranks in the 98th percentile for average exit velocity.

Bichette’s home run snapped a bizarre slump for the No. 4 spot in Toronto’s batting order, which had not produced a home run all season. It also was only the third long ball for the Toronto shortstop, who often hits elsewhere in the lineup. Bichette is +700 to make it two days in a row with a homer.

Justin Turner appears to be emerging from a month-long hitting slump. He doubled to snap an 0-for-20 jag Tuesday and, on Wednesday, he walked three times, a good indication he’s seeing the ball well once again. He might be in a good spot here to exceed 1.5 total bases at +135.

As effective as Flaherty has been, he has always had a bit of a struggle getting out left-handed batters. This season, Flaherty’s splits – a .661 OPS for righties and a .703 OPS for lefties – isn’t massive, but the platoon advantage remains real. That puts a spotlight on hitters such as Daulton Varsho, who has swung the bat well, to go over 0.5 total bases at -140.

Flaherty has been more effective on the road than at home this season, with a 4.21 ERA at Comerica Park. Nothing Gausman has done of late suggests he will return to the ace form of recent seasons. This seems like a good spot to consider betting the over on the run line, set at a modest 7.5.