MLB Betting Preview (July 4): Astros vs. Blue Jays Predictions

Two of the most disappointing teams in the American League continue their four-game series at Rogers Centre when the Houston Astros play the Toronto Blue Jays at 1:07 p.m. Thursday. The Astros have won two of the first three games thus far, with Houston enjoying a 9-2 laugher after scoring seven runs in the last three innings Wednesday night.

It may not be much of a stretch to say that the loser of this series will be compelled to trade off major league pieces in advance of next month’s trade deadline, while the winner – at least for the moment – can continue trying to fight itself back into the playoff race.

The Astros are ever-so-slight favourites at -115 at Bet365 with the over-under total set at 8.5 runs.

Already beset by injuries, Houston got a massive scare in the first inning when it appeared slugger Yordan Alvarez had injured his ankle during a routine groundout. But Alvarez was able to remain in the game and quickly showed his bat remains perfectly healthy. He hit his third home run in as many games, one of his three extra-base hits during a three-RBI night.

The Astros, unlike Toronto, appear to be shaping up for a second-half push after a brutal start to their season. They have won 11 of their past 13 games and have been the best team in the AL, at 19-9, since the start of June. They’ve been doing it lately without the services of superstar Kyle Tucker, who is on the injured list with a shin bruise. When the Astros put Tucker on the IL, he was tied with Gunnar Henderson for the second-most home runs in the major leagues at 19.

Houston has been decent enough offensively, but the pitching has been a problem all season. Rookie Ronel Blanco certainly hasn’t been part of that problem and has been a particular thorn in the side for Toronto. Blanco threw a no-hitter against the Jays on April 1, then held them to two runs over 5 2/3 innings Wednesday night.

The Astros lead the major leagues with a .264 team batting average and their 101 home runs rank seventh, but their pitching staff’s 4.01 ERA ranks 16^th.

The Jays are increasingly viewed as potential decisive players in major league pennant races, but not for the reasons Toronto’s front office had hoped. The Jays could be one of the most impactful sellers heading into the annual trade deadline, with valuable potential trade chips such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi in the offing. The days to make the decision of whether to trade off expensive major league pieces are getting closer and closer, with only 21 Blue Jays games left before the Aug. 1 deadline.

The Jays haven’t declared their deadline stance publicly, but 12 games out in the AL East and eight games short of a wild-card berth, it seems to become more obvious by the day.

Last season was a struggle for the Jays, who rallied in time to make the playoffs, though it was a quick excursion. This season has been a first-half disaster. Toronto hasn’t done much of anything well, ranking 19^th in OPS at .685 and 23^rd in pitching with a 4.36 ERA. Last season, the Jays’ sputtering offence at least could rely on strong pitching to bail it out.

One of the top left-handed pitchers in the American League each of the past two seasons, the two-time All-Star will be looking to bounce back from one of his worst-ever starts his last time out against the New York Mets. Valdez didn’t make it out of the fifth inning at Citi Field on June 29, allowing six runs on 10 hits while walking three batters. Houston wound up rallying for five runs in the final two innings to get Valdez off the hook and win 9-6.

Valdez, 30, bucks the trend toward strikeouts, managing to get most of his work done on bad contact. With a sinker that averages 94 mph, Valdez is one of the true groundball masters in the game. His 62.5% groundball rate ranks in the 98^th percentile. He has a curveball that hasn’t been particularly effective this season and a changeup to help neutralize right-handed batters. Normally, Valdez is a tough draw, but the Blue Jays may be seeing him at the right time.

While some people were dubious of the three-year, $63 million contract the Blue Jays agreed to with Bassitt going into last season, he certainly has done his part to quiet that dissension. Bassitt, 35, is on his way to matching the 2.5-bWAR season he gave Toronto last season when he reached the 200-inning benchmark for the first time in his career. Bassitt has been particularly effective in the last month, going 1-0 with a 1.41 ERA and holding opposing hitters to a .593 OPS in his last five starts. That includes his last game, when he gave up just one earned run over six innings while striking out eight New York Yankees in a 9-3 Jays win at Rogers Centre.

A bit like Valdez, Bassitt does a lot of his work with his fastball without overpowering people or striking all that many out. His primary weapons are a sinker that averages 93 mph and a cutter that averages 90 mph. His curveball is slightly above average, but he primarily uses those two fastballs to get off-barrel contact and his average exit velocity ranks in the 79^th percentile. It rarely turns into a walk-fest with either of these starting pitchers, who are veterans who know how to command their stuff.

The weather should be fine Thursday afternoon in downtown Toronto, with a mix of clouds and sunshine and first-pitcher temperatures of about 26 C. Light winds are forecasted to be blowing out to right field at about 14 km/h.

As of Thursday morning, 56% of bets had – according to public betting data — come in on the Astros’ moneyline.

Toronto is 4-11 straight-up in its last 15 games, fueling the mounting speculation it will be a deadline seller.

Houston has won six of its last eight games on the road while Toronto has gone 3-7 in its last 10 games at Rogers Centre.

The Astros and their opponents have exceeded the total in five of their last six games, with Houston hitting the over in five of its last six games overall.

Alvarez has gone 6-for-11 with three home runs and eight RBIs over the first three games of this series. His total bases are set at 1.5 for this one, with the over at -110 and the under at -120.

Alvarez has been a major problem for Bassitt, going 8-for-18 with five home runs and a 1.783 in his previous plate appearances off the Toronto righty.

Daulton Varsho briefly got his batting average above .200 with his second hit of the night Wednesday before it sank back to .199. The Blue Jays once again shook up their lineup, moving Varsho to fifth despite his paltry numbers. A bettor must accept odds of -135 to wager that Varsho will get at least one hit on Thursday.

Momentum may be only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher, but Valdez has been too good for too many years to assume he’ll have two awful starts in a row. He also has strong numbers against these Jays’ hitters, with only Bichette and Ernie Clement managing a batting average above .200 against him. Expect a bounce-back effort from Valdez and take the hotter team, Houston, with acceptable odds here against a team headed nowhere.

Valdez likely won’t let a sore ankle slow him down and he normally is at designated hitter, so he won’t have to worry about playing the field. He’ll be pushing to play given his numbers off Bassitt and expect some hard-hit balls from him, presuming he’s not too tender to play. Consider taking the over on that total bases play mentioned above.