MLB Betting Preview (May 24): Blue Jays vs. Tigers

The Toronto Blue Jays got six dominant innings from Kevin Gausman and a late reprieve for their offensive struggles in a 9-1 win over the Detroit Tigers Thursday night at Comerica Park. They go for the series win Friday at 6:40 p.m. ET, hoping Alek Manoah continues his bid to win Comeback Player of the Year in the American League.

The Jays are installed as slight favourites, with a run total set at 8.5, as the Tigers are starting a fifth starter on shaky ground, Matt Manning.

The most important thing that happened Thursday was Gausman displaying the form that had seen him contend for the Cy Young award each of the previous two seasons before a spring-training injury sent him into 2024 in an early spiral. Gausman used a lively fastball and a good split-finger pitch to strike out 10 Tigers and carry a no-hitter into the sixth. He allowed just three hits while walking two and allowing just one run. The Blue Jays cut down a run at the plate when catcher Carson Kelly was tagged out.

Thursday also was important for a lineup that had produced less power than any team but the Chicago White Sox in the American League so far this season. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Daulton Varsho and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. all went deep. In the process, Kiner-Falefa broke out of a hellacious slump, Varsho continued to provide the steady production he has all season and Guerrero continued to hit the ball hard, as he has done for a solid month.

As it waits for its offence to get going, Toronto can envision its rotation rounding into shape nicely, particularly if Gausman and Manoah can regain their form of previous seasons.

Though he was tagged with the loss, Jack Flaherty pitched awfully well most of Thursday, striking out nine batters and allowing just seven hits and a walk over 6 1/3 inning.

The Tigers’ offensive woes haven’t been quite as extensive as the Jays’, but lack of hitting has been their main problem in 2024. They certainly have played a huge part of this five-game losing streak. They’ve been particularly prone to the strikeout, going down without making contact in 10 of their 29 at-bats Thursday to add to their total of 446 on the season. Only four teams in the American League have struck out more frequently than the Tigers, who haven’t hit for as much power as any of the teams with more whiffs than them.

The poster child for the Tigers’ swing-and-miss ways is outfielder Riley Greene, who has struck out 57 times on the young season, more than all but four AL players. Greene also leads the Tigers in OPS at .778. Gio Urshela, Spencer Torkelson and Javier Baéz all have an OPS south of .615. The Tigers thus far in 2024 have been wielding a pop-gun offence.

Most pitchers deal with adversity in their careers, but Manoah has dealt with more than the usual share for such a young guy. In the span of the past two years, Manoah has gone from staff ace to minor-leaguer to the Jays’ hope, long-term rotation piece. Manoah, 26, has been strong in his first three starts of 2024, striking out 19 batters and walking just six. He has gone seven innings in each of his past two starts. It comes at an opportune time for the Jays as they look to get their fifth-starter spot in order.
Manoah’s stuff hasn’t been overwhelming by today’s standards – his sinker and four-seamer both register at about 94 mph – but he has shown a canny pitch mix, throwing his slider more than either fastball and mixing in a changeup. His ability to get swings and misses again is encouraging. His K-rate ranks in the 88th percentile, though, obviously, it’s a bit premature to declare him all the way back.

Manning’s spot in Detroit’s rotation is very much in doubt with Kenta Maeda working his way back from an injury in the minor leagues. Many people believed Maeda would, in fact, make Friday’s start, but manager A.J. Hinch announced earlier this week Manning would get one more chance. It didn’t seem to be much of a commitment beyond that, for obvious reasons. Manning has allowed three or more runs in each of his past four starts.
His bread and butter is the fad pitch of this era, the sweeper, a pitch he has thrown on nearly half his pitches thus far this season. It’s a good one, too, ranking in the 68th percentile for breaking ball run value. His fastball is nothing special, averaging 94 mph, and his curveball and split-finger pitches don’t come into play that often.

It should be lovely at first pitch at Comerica Park, with blue skies and temperatures forecast to be about 27C and the wind blowing in from center field at about 5 km/h.

The Tigers’ last five games have eclipsed the run total. The total has landed in three of the Jays’ last five games.

The Tigers have been fairly live underdogs, winning 11 of the 25 games in which they have gotten odds of any kind.

Only two MLB teams, the Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins, have more consistently hit overs this season than Detroit, but only seven teams have hit more unders than the Jays.

Manning has yet to record a quality start (at least six innings, three earned runs or fewer) this season, but he has lasted at least five innings in his past three starts.

Varsho went deep against Flaherty at tasty odds, as predicted in this space, and he is +550 to do it again Friday. Varsho has eclipsed the over on home runs in seven of his last 32 games.

Javier Baéz quite probably is the worst hitter still playing daily for an MLB team. He has hit the total bases under in his past seven games.

The underlying metrics don’t love Manoah’s comeback just yet and Manning simply hasn’t been good. Sure, these are two light-hitting teams, but this feels like a decent spot to take the over behind a Tigers team that has accumulated them all season. Perhaps Toronto’s late flurry of power Thursday will carry over.

For as long as the Tigers continue to run Baéz out there while he puts up some of the most ungodly numbers registered in years, including a .513 OPS that ranks 158th out of 159 qualified players, it’s worth staying on the under train. Consider under-0.5 total bases at +155.