Red Sox vs Blue Jays 05/18/21 – Odds and MLB Betting Trends

The moneyline trend is murky as the Toronto Blue Jays head into a measuring-stick matchup against a division nemesis.  The Blue Jays are -140 favorites and the Boston Red Sox are +130 underdogs with a 9.0-run total on the MLB odds for Tuesday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how the moneyline works).

The Blue Jays are 12-6 in their last 18 games as a home favorite, with the OVER hitting 11 times. Since May 2019, they are 7-9 in their last 16 home games as a -130 to -160 favorite. The Red Sox are 9-3 in their last 12 games as an underdog on the road with an even 6-6 split on the totals. The Blue Jays are 5-8 in their last 13 home games against the Red Sox with the total going OVER seven times.

Tuesday’s matchup is just the fourth time in the last three seasons that the Blue Jays have been a home favorite against Boston at online sports betting sites.

The Red Sox, who lead the AL East with a 25-17 record, are averaging 5.17 runs per game and lead MLB with a .772 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage), with shortstop Xander Bogaerts and designated hitter J.D. Martinez each boasting an OPS above 1.000. Boston’s pitching staff is 12th among the 30 MLB teams in earned-run average at 3.81, including the 13th-best relief ERA at 3.74.

The Blue Jays, who are 22-17, are scoring 4.92 runs per game and their .729 OPS ranks seventh in MLB. Toronto’s pitching staff has MLB’s 13th-best ERA at 3.84, with the relief corps ranking fourth with a 3.15 ERA.

Although he was not officially listed as the starter as of early Tuesday morning, lefthander Hyun Jin Ryu (3-2, 2.95 ERA, 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings) would have his requisite five days’ rest in order to start on Tuesday opposite Boston lefty Eduardo Rodríguez (5-1, 4.15 ERA, 9.7 SO/9). Ryu has a 4.24 ERA in 17 career innings against Boston, but his teams are 8-2 in his last 10 home starts even though the total has gone OVER eight times. Rodríguez has helped the Red Sox go 6-2 in his last eight away-underdog starts, with the total going UNDER five times. He has a 4.52 ERA in 81.2 career innings against Toronto. Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernández has three home runs against  Rodríguez in 14 at-bats.

Toronto’s Ross Stripling (0-2, 5.91 ERA, 11.0 SO/9) and Boston’s Garrett Richards (3-2, 3.89 ERA, 8.2 SO/9) meet in an all-righthanded pitching matchup on Wednesday. Stripling has a 2.51 career ERA against Boston and the total has gone UNDER in five of his last nine home starts, although his teams are 4-5. Richards has a 2.16 ERA over his last four starts, but a 5.49 career mark against the Blue Jays. Richards’ teams are 7-3 in his last 10 starts on the road, with the total going UNDER seven times.

Lefthander Steven Matz (5-2, 4.29 ERA, 9.9 SO/9) will start on Thursday opposite Canadian-born Boston righthander Nick Pivetta (5-0, 3.16 ERA, 8.9 SO/9). Matz has only faced Boston once in his career, and his teams are 2-7 over his last nine home starts with the OVER hitting five times. Pivetta has a 5.40 ERA in 11.2 innings against Toronto, but Boston is 4-0 in his last four starts on the road. The total has gone OVER in six of Pivetta’s last 11 away starts.

The Blue Jays begin a four-game wraparound series against the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday.